Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnVandita JadejaTue, June 23, 2026 at 8:11 PM GMT+2 4 min readQuick ReadMSFT trades 23% below its 2025 peak, but 40% Azure growth and an 18% revenue jump make our $489 price target a BUY.Even the bear scenario still delivers nearly 20% upside, with Microsoft's operating margin at 46% and ROE at 34%.Microsoft's AI business hit a $37 billion annual run rate, up 123%, backed by a $627 billion commercial backlog that nearly doubled.Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Microsoft didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is the rare mega-cap where the bear case centers on valuation rather than business quality: the stock got ahead of itself. After a sharp drawdown from $551.05 in 2025 to today's level, the math has reset. Our model says the setup now favors patient buyers.2024 Getty Images / Getty Images News via Getty ImagesMicrosoft trades at $367.34. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Microsoft is $489.45 over the next 12 months, implying 33.24% upside. Our recommendation is buy with a 90% confidence level, which we consider high.24/7 Wall St. Price Target SummaryMetricValueCurrent Price$367.3424/7 Wall St. Price Target$489.45Upside33.24%RecommendationBUYConfidence Level90%A Brutal Six Months Has Reset the SetupMSFT is down 23.7% year to date and 8.11% in the past week alone, sitting just above the $355.51 52-week low. Yet the fundamentals tell a very different story.Q3 FY26 EPS came in at $4.27 versus the $4.07 consensus, on revenue of $82.89 billion, up 18.3% year over year. Azure grew 40%, and the AI business hit a $37 billion annual run rate, up 123%. Commercial RPO of $627 billion nearly doubled. The market is punishing the $30.88 billion quarterly capex bill while the underlying business continues to compound.Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Microsoft didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.MSFT Price Target — 24/7 Wall St.The Case for $600+The bull scenario points to $599.79 within 12 months, a 63.28% return. The case rests on the $627 billion backlog converting faster than expected, Azure sustaining 40% growth, and the restructured OpenAI partnership (a 27% stake worth roughly $135 billion, plus a $250 billion incremental Azure commitment) flowing through reported results.Infrastructure investments like the 2.7 GW Project Kilby data center with Chevron suggest Microsoft has secured the power capacity rivals are still scrambling to find. Of 55 analysts, 52 rate it Buy with a $561.39 consensus target.MSFT Analyst Ratings — 24/7 Wall St.What Could Go WrongThe bear scenario lands at $438.60, still a 19.4% return. Risks are real: capex is running at $30.88 billion per quarter, OpenAI losses hit $3.1 billion in Q1 FY26, and recent news flow shows the market is increasingly worried AI agents could cannibalize traditional software subscriptions. The More Personal Computing segment fell 1% YoY.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info