Gold Weekly Analysis & Trading Plan（6.29-7.05）XAU/USD Spot - GoldFX:XAUUSDGDJ_JinnNew week! Time for another weekly XAU breakdown. 1. Macro Events to Watch this week • US-Iran Negotiations：The current US-Iran situation remains fragile. While the Trump administration has announced a framework for a potential agreement, Iran has rejected several key terms, leaving negotiations effectively stalled. For now, the market is facing a "fight while negotiating" scenario—limited regional tensions continue, but neither side has entered substantive discussions on nuclear inspections or sanctions relief. • US Economic Data：This Thursday (July 2), markets will focus on the US Unemployment Rate and NFP for June. A stronger-than-expected report would reinforce expectations for further Fed tightening, which could keep pressure on Gold. Note: Due to the July 3 Independence Day holiday, both releases will be published one day earlier than usual. • ETF Flows：As of June 26, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest Gold ETF, stood at 1,005.08 tonnes, with more than 15 tonnes of net outflows recorded this week.Holdings are approaching the 1000-tonne level. Although Gold has rebounded over the past two sessions, institutional capital has yet to return in a meaningful way. Continued ETF outflows suggest that overall risk sentiment remains cautious, providing limited support for higher Gold prices. 2. Chart Analysis Gold rejected the 4380 resistance and declined nearly 420 dollars before finding support within the weekly bullish order block (4030–3928). By Friday's close, price had rallied back into an H1 bearish order block, where it also faced resistance around 4080. A decisive break below 3950 could trigger another wave of selling pressure. Looking back at last week's price action, Gold completed a clear five-wave Elliott impulse to the downside and has now started an ABC corrective rally, which I've illustrated on my chart. Key Levels： Resistance: 4085 / 4220 Support: 3980–3960 / 3880 Trading Plan XAU Short (Only if Monday fails to produce a confirmed breakout above 4100.) Entry: 4080 SL: 4100 (allowing for a typical Monday fake breakout) TP: 4010–3980 XAU Short (Higher Entry) Entry: 4180–4220 SL: 4250 TP1: 4100 TP2: Open Gold has already broken above the descending trendline of the five-wave decline. I'll be looking for a 2B reversal setup aligned with an H1 bullish order block before considering new longs. XAU Long Entry: 3990–3960 SL: 3950 TP: 4100 / Open Final Thoughts With markets continuing to price in the possibility of further Fed tightening, the US Dollar is likely to remain firm, keeping pressure on precious metals. My base case for this week is range-bound to slightly bearish price action. For now, I prefer selling rallies rather than chasing longs, while remaining patient for higher-probability buying opportunities at major support.