Can Indonesia's AI Expansion Push NVDA's Price Back Above $199?NVDAUSDTPERP PERPETUAL MIX CONTRACTBITGET:NVDAUSDT.Pzenthena00While the market continues debating whether AI infrastructure spending has peaked, NVIDIA just received another long-term vote of confidence. Australian AI infrastructure company Firmus Technologies announced it will cooperate with NVIDIA to build its first AI data center in Indonesia. The agreement covers access to as many as 170,000 NVIDIA AI accelerator chips between 2027 and 2028 and could generate up to $30 billion in purchase agreement revenue during its first six years. Normally, news like this would strengthen the long-term AI narrative. Yet the chart is telling a very different story. Despite another major infrastructure announcement, NVIDIA continues trading in a well-defined downtrend, reminding me that strong fundamentals don't always translate into immediate bullish price action. Until buyers reclaim key technical levels, the bears still control the short-term trend. The Setup On the 4H timeframe, I'm seeing multiple bearish confluences aligning. • Price remains below the 9 EMA, 20 EMA, and 50 EMA. • Market structure continues printing lower highs and lower lows. • Price has already broken below the previous swing low and is now consolidating beneath former support. • The highlighted liquidity zone around 199.14 has flipped into overhead resistance instead of support. When both structure and momentum point in the same direction, I usually prefer trading with the trend instead of trying to predict its reversal. Why This Level Matters The green zone around 199.14 is the area I'm watching most closely. Previously, this acted as support where buyers attempted to stabilize price. After the breakdown, that same level has become a potential supply zone where sellers may look to defend their positions. At the same time, the declining EMA 20 and EMA 50 are approaching this area, creating additional dynamic resistance. If price revisits this region and gets rejected again, it would reinforce the existing bearish structure. For me, this is where the next meaningful decision will likely be made. Key Levels Resistance • 199.14 - Major liquidity zone and first area where I expect sellers to defend. • 205.47 - Short TP1 / Long invalidation (78.6% Fibonacci). A sustained move above this level would weaken the current bearish structure. • 213.67 - Short invalidation / Long TP1 (50% Fibonacci). Reclaiming this level would invalidate my bearish thesis entirely. • 221.24 - Long TP2 near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Support • 191.22 - Current swing low and immediate support. A clean break below this level could open the door for another wave of downside as sellers search for fresh liquidity. Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation This remains my preferred setup. If NVIDIA continues trading below the liquidity zone and the EMA cluster, I'll be looking for rejection rather than strength. Things I'd like to see: • Price rejects 199.14. • EMA 20 continues acting as dynamic resistance. • Lower highs remain intact. • Selling pressure expands below 191.22. As long as those conditions remain, I think the path of least resistance continues pointing lower. Scenario 2: Bullish Recovery The Firmus announcement strengthens NVIDIA's long-term AI story, but the chart still needs to confirm it. For me, the first sign of improving momentum would be a successful reclaim of 199.14, followed by acceptance above 205.47. Only then would I start looking for continuation toward 213.67 and potentially 221.24. Until that happens, I see rallies as corrective moves rather than confirmed reversals. What I'm Watching One lesson I've learned over time is that good news doesn't automatically create bullish charts. Sometimes markets sell into positive headlines because expectations were already priced in. That's why I'm paying much closer attention to how price reacts around resistance than to the headline itself. If buyers can finally reclaim those levels, the fundamental story and technical structure could begin aligning again. My Trading Plan Right now I'm staying patient. Rather than chasing price near current lows, I'd rather wait for a retest into resistance where the risk-to-reward becomes much cleaner. If sellers reject the liquidity zone again, that would offer a far more attractive setup than entering after an already extended decline. Once my confirmation appears, I'll likely execute the trade in Bitget CFDs, as i am looking at btc as well and i can access both crypto and cfd from the same account without changing platforms. Do you think NVIDIA's Indonesia AI expansion is enough to shift market sentiment, or will technical structure continue outweighing bullish fundamentals until key resistance levels are reclaimed?