NVIDIA: Wave (2) Reset Before the Next Major ImpulseNVIDIA CorporationBATS:NVDApricewerkNVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | NASDAQ | 1D Market Context NVIDIA remains in a dominant higher-timeframe uptrend, but the daily chart is no longer in a clean momentum expansion phase. After the strong advance from the April 2025 low around 86.570 USD, price developed a broad impulsive structure and eventually pushed into a new high at 236.212 USD. That level is now the key confirmation line for the next major bullish expansion. The current decline from 236.212 USD is best viewed as a corrective reset, not as a confirmed trend reversal. Price is cooling off after a completed five-wave advance, while RSI has moved back into a neutral-to-soft zone. This is typical behavior after a strong Wave (1): the market reduces excess, tests liquidity, and searches for a higher-quality base before the next directional move. Fundamental Context NVIDIA continues to trade as one of the central bellwethers of the AI infrastructure cycle. The market narrative remains driven by data-center demand, accelerator leadership, software ecosystem strength, margin durability, hyperscaler capex, and expectations around the next hardware cycle. That fundamental backdrop supports the longer-term bullish interpretation, but it also raises the bar for the stock. When expectations are high, even strong companies can correct deeply without breaking the secular trend. This is why the current pullback should be judged through structure, VWAP behavior, and Fibonacci depth rather than through the headline trend alone. Elliott Wave Count The preferred higher-degree count treats the move from 86.570 USD to 236.212 USD as a completed Wave (1). The internal structure into the high can be counted as a five-wave sequence, with the final push into 236.212 USD marking both a local Wave (5) and the completion of the higher-degree Wave (1). The current decline is therefore best labeled as Wave (2). A Wave (2) often retraces sharply, especially after a fast and highly visible Wave (1). The chart is already showing a corrective rhythm, and the projected path suggests that the pullback may still need one more deeper liquidation phase before a durable base is established. The first downside decision area sits around the smaller extension box between 185.551 USD and 176.814 USD. This zone can act as an interim target for the ongoing corrective leg. If price reacts there, a short-term Wave (4)-type bounce could develop, but that would not yet confirm the end of the larger Wave (2). The more important higher-degree Wave (2) support area sits lower: 161.051 USD: 50.0% retracement 143.313 USD: 61.8% retracement 118.060 USD: 78.6% retracement As long as price remains above 86.570 USD, the broader bullish Elliott Wave count remains formally valid. However, from a practical trading perspective, the structure is much healthier if Wave (2) holds above the 50.0% to 61.8% retracement zone between 161.051 USD and 143.313 USD. VWAP Structure The two VWAP lines are central to this chart. The upper rising VWAP is the tactical trend line of the current cycle. It supported the April 2026 Wave (4) low near the 163.529 USD retracement area and now sits below current price as the first major dynamic support. A pullback into the upper VWAP would be important because it would test whether institutional demand is still defending the active trend. If price reaches the 176.814 to 185.551 USD zone and remains above the upper VWAP, the correction can still be interpreted as controlled. A clean reaction from that area would suggest that sellers are losing momentum before reaching the deeper Wave (2) box. The lower VWAP is the long-term structural anchor. It sits much closer to the 118.060 USD retracement area and represents a deeper cycle-level mean. A correction into that lower VWAP would be a much more aggressive reset. It would not automatically destroy the long-term bullish count, but it would signal that the market needed a major valuation and positioning reset before the next impulse could begin. In simple terms: the upper VWAP is the first serious trend-defense line; the lower VWAP is the last major structural mean before the entire bullish thesis becomes much more vulnerable. Key Levels Current Price Area Price is trading around 192.530 USD, below the recent corrective highs and still above the first projected support box. This keeps the short-term chart vulnerable, especially as long as price remains below the 205 to 215 USD recovery area. Support Zones 185.551 USD: 138.0% short-term extension and first corrective target zone. 181.764 USD: visible intermediate retracement level. 176.814 USD: 161.8% short-term extension and lower edge of the first support box. 163.529 USD: prior Wave (4) retracement area and upper VWAP-related support. 161.051 USD: 50.0% higher-degree retracement. 143.313 USD: 61.8% higher-degree retracement and preferred deep Wave (2) support. 118.060 USD: 78.6% retracement and lower VWAP-related structural support. 86.570 USD: formal invalidation of the preferred higher-degree bullish count. Resistance and Confirmation 205 to 215 USD: first recovery zone that would reduce immediate downside pressure. 236.212 USD: main confirmation level. A break above this high would confirm that Wave (2) has ended and that a new Wave (3) is likely underway. 392.881 USD: visible 1.618 Fibonacci extension and first major Wave (3) projection. 449.762 USD: visible 2.0 Fibonacci extension and upper projection cluster for a strong Wave (3). Bullish Scenario The bullish scenario remains intact as long as the current decline behaves like a controlled Wave (2) and does not violate the 86.570 USD origin. The first constructive sign would be a strong reaction from the 185.551 to 176.814 USD region, especially if price remains above or quickly reclaims the upper VWAP. A stronger setup would develop if price forms a higher low above 163.529 USD and then reclaims the 205 to 215 USD zone. That would indicate that the correction is losing downside pressure before reaching the deeper Fibonacci box. The decisive bullish confirmation remains 236.212 USD. Above that level, the Wave (2) correction would be considered complete, and the next higher-degree Wave (3) could begin. In that scenario, the chart opens toward the 392.881 to 449.762 USD extension cluster over time. Bearish / Alternative Scenario The alternative scenario gains weight if NVDA breaks below the upper VWAP and fails to reclaim it. That would shift the correction from a shallow tactical reset into a deeper Wave (2) retracement. Below 176.814 USD, the market would likely start targeting the 163.529 to 161.051 USD area. A failure to stabilize there would open the preferred deeper Wave (2) box between 161.051 USD and 143.313 USD. If price also loses 143.313 USD, the correction becomes much more complex. The next major structural area would be 118.060 USD, which also aligns with the lower VWAP zone. A move into that region would still be technically possible within a Wave (2), but it would represent a severe reset and would require a very clear reversal structure before the bullish thesis could be trusted again. Below 86.570 USD, the preferred higher-degree bullish count is invalidated. Trading Interpretation NVDA is not yet giving a confirmed long-side continuation signal. The chart is in the middle of a corrective process, and the current price action still leaves room for lower levels before the next higher-quality setup appears. The key is how price behaves around the two VWAPs. Holding above the upper VWAP would keep the correction technically constructive and suggest that buyers are defending the active trend. Losing that VWAP would make the deeper 161.051 to 143.313 USD Wave (2) zone much more relevant. The lower VWAP should not be treated as a normal pullback target. It is a cycle-level reset area. If price reaches it, the market would be offering a much deeper structural test, not a simple continuation dip. For aggressive traders, the 185.551 to 176.814 USD region is the first area to watch for reaction. For conservative traders, the cleaner signal is a completed base followed by a reclaim of 205 to 215 USD, or ideally a breakout above 236.212 USD. Conclusion NVIDIA remains structurally bullish on the higher timeframe, but the daily chart is still correcting. The preferred count treats 236.212 USD as the completion of Wave (1) and the current decline as Wave (2). The first important test is the 185.551 to 176.814 USD support region. The deeper and more important Wave (2) area sits between 161.051 USD and 143.313 USD. The upper VWAP defines the active trend-defense zone, while the lower VWAP marks the deeper cycle-level reset area near the 78.6% retracement. As long as 86.570 USD holds, the larger bullish count remains valid. Above 236.212 USD, the correction would be confirmed as complete and the chart would open the door to a potential Wave (3) expansion toward the 392.881 to 449.762 USD extension cluster.