Gold Is About To Break… Here's Why I'm Still BearishGold FuturesCOMEX:GC1!EdgeTradingJourneyAfter last week's price action, Gold continues to confirm my broader bearish outlook. Although the longer-term bullish structure remains intact, the market is currently trading inside a corrective phase after rejecting the major weekly premium zone. For now, I believe sellers still have the upper hand unless buyers manage to reclaim higher value areas. Weekly Structure From a pure price action perspective, the market has now broken below the previous descending channel while approaching an important weekly support cluster around 4,100. This area is significant because several technical factors converge here: Weekly Swing Low Weekly Demand Multiple unfilled Weekly Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) A reaction from this zone wouldn't surprise me. However, if this support fails to hold, I believe the market could quickly seek liquidity resting inside the lower Weekly Fair Value Gaps around 3,950 and potentially even 3,750. COT Report The latest Commitment of Traders report continues to provide interesting information. Large Speculators remain heavily net long Gold, increasing both long and short exposure during the latest reporting period. Commercial participants continue to hold a significant net short position, which is typical for producers hedging future production. Overall, I don't see the COT report as a reason to immediately turn bullish. Instead, it supports the idea that Gold may continue correcting before the broader trend resumes. Retail Sentiment Current retail positioning shows: 56% Long 44% Short Retail traders are slightly biased to the long side, but positioning remains relatively balanced. For me, this isn't a strong contrarian signal and therefore doesn't materially change my technical outlook. Seasonality Seasonality also aligns with the current market structure. Historically, June has been one of the weakest months for Gold, particularly over the last 5 and 10 years. If history continues to repeat itself, downside pressure could persist into the end of the month before seasonal strength gradually improves during July. My Trading Plan At the moment, I remain bearish while price trades below the previous weekly supply zone. Bullish Scenario I'll only start looking for long opportunities if buyers manage to reclaim the 4,300–4,350 demand area and show clear signs of strength. Bearish Scenario As long as price remains below resistance, I'm watching for a decisive break beneath the current weekly support. That would likely open the door towards the next Weekly Fair Value Gap cluster around 3,950, followed by the deeper imbalance around 3,750.