BTC Downside Target Points to $42,000–$43,000Bitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDVili_Wealth_PlanAnalysis indicates that in 2022, Bitcoin first fell below the 200-week moving average, followed by a "death cross" formation on the weekly chart—a pattern where a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term one. Two months later, the market experienced a sharp decline to the $15,000–$16,000 range, completing the final capitulation phase of the previous bear market. Analysts believe a similar structure is currently re-emerging: Bitcoin has dropped below the 200-week moving average, and the configuration of moving averages on the weekly chart is mirroring the 2022 pattern. This serves as the primary basis for the assessment that there is still room for the market to fall. Historically, Bitcoin tends to drop approximately 30% below the 200-week moving average during bear market phases. Based on a current price of around $60,000, applying this magnitude of decline places the price in the $42,000–$43,000 range. This zone aligns closely with the price levels seen when BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF launched and is considered a strong support area for the current cycle. Projections suggest the potential market low could occur in September or October 2026. Current reference price: Approx. $60,000 Downside target: $42,000–$43,000 Expected timeframe: September or October 2026