Three Scenarios: The Three Potential Fates of GoldGOLD (US$/OZ)TVC:GOLDVili_Wealth_PlanScenario 1: Non-farm payroll data meets expectations (High probability) The market will maintain pricing for a single rate hike, with September as the most likely window for implementation and December as a backup. While this outcome is unlikely to trigger a fresh surge in the US dollar, it is sufficient to prevent a significant pullback. For gold, this likely implies short-term stabilization rather than a genuine rebound—particularly given that the June CPI data remains pending in two weeks' time. Scenario 2: Data significantly exceeds expectations, especially with concurrent wage growth (Most bearish for gold) This would reinforce the case for a September rate hike and reignite speculation regarding another hike in December, further strengthening the US dollar's medium-term upward trend. Gold would face a severe test at the $4,000 mark, potentially opening the door to a new leg lower. Scenario 3: Data unexpectedly falls short of expectations (Lower probability) Given the temporary boost from the World Cup, the likelihood of weaker-than-expected data is relatively low. However, even if this occurs, a single month of weak data is unlikely to fundamentally alter the Federal Reserve's tightening bias following months of resilient employment. The more probable market reaction would be to push rate hike expectations from September to December, rather than ruling out further tightening entirely. In this scenario, gold might establish a temporary bottom in the $4,000–$4,200 range, but it is unlikely to launch a new bull market.