USD/CHF Slips as Fed Hike Bets Lose SteamUSD/CHFTASTYFX:USDCHFtastyfxUSD/CHF fell 0.2% midway through Monday, June 29 as the U.S. Dollar softened after a strong June run, perhaps profit taking at the end of month and quarter. The key shift has been the retracement in Fed hike odds over the past few sessions. Markets had aggressively priced a more hawkish Federal Reserve after firmer inflation pressure, resilient U.S. data, and the Iran oil shock, but that trade is starting to cool as oil stabilizes and Treasury yields lose some momentum. Once the rate impulse faded, the U.S. Dollar lost its cleanest source of support. For Switzerland, the setup remains steadier. The Swiss Franc is still backed by defensive demand and a Swiss National Bank that has little reason to fight currency strength while inflation remains contained. The SNB’s inflation outlook remains low by global standards, giving policymakers flexibility even as imported price pressures fluctuate. Today’s move was less about a sudden Swiss catalyst and more about the U.S. side of the equation: when Fed hike expectations stop rising, USD/CHF becomes vulnerable to a pullback. In the above chart, USD/CHF rates have found resistance at a familiar area near 0.8100, which has capped rallies since late-June 2025. While a pause in this area wouldn’t be a surprise, the context of the Dollar Index (DXY) breaking above 100 suggests a meaningful low in the USD-complex has been found. To this point, USD/CHF’s downtrend from the 2025 high has likewise broken, adding another piece of technical evidence that major lows have been established. For the time being, USD/CHF’s overall bullish momentum profile should keep dip buyers intrigued, with support coming near the June 11 swing high and 1-month EMA (exponential moving average) around 0.8010/30. That said, the longer the pair lingers without a meaningful push to the topside, the greater the risk that momentum fades and the wider 2026 range comes back into play to the downside.