Solana (SOL) — Sunday and Early-Week Trading Outlook | 10-11SOL / Tether PERPETUAL FUTURESMEXC:SOLUSDT.Psean78808MARKET OUTLOOK: BEARISH SHORT-TERM STRUCTURE WITH DAILY DEMAND STILL RELEVANT SOL remains in a repair phase following the selloff from the late-September highs. The rebound from approximately $105.60 has not reversed the sequence of lower highs on the 4H chart, and nearby supply limits the reward available from an initial recovery. The principal decision pending is whether the market establishes acceptance below $109.40 or recovers that boundary and rebuilds value. A fresh failed retest below $109.40 offers the more attractive illustrated opportunity. Buying a recovery through $110.66 leaves little room before the first supply at $111.10–$111.20. The underlying assessment was completed around 03:11 UTC on October 11. A later check around 03:54 UTC showed price near $109.13, below $109.40. The candle was still developing: that observation does not establish the completed-close and retest sequence required below. ACROSS THE TIMEFRAMES Weekly: Recovery remains within a larger drawdown, beneath resistance around $120 and $140–$145. The current weekly candle is unfinished. Daily: Price has lost the Fast KAMA and the rising pitchfork median. The slower average near $106 and broader $103–$107 demand remain important support references. 4H: Lower highs persist from $124–$125. The rebound remains below the Slow KAMA near $113.80 and an anchored VWAP near $117.60. 48m and 24m: Compression and bearish alignment persist. Value has not established sustained upward migration. 6m and Below: Lower highs near $110.50 and $110.15 preceded renewed weakness and a loss of the local rising pitchfork's lower parallel. Participation was subdued at the assessment: recent completed six-hour volume was approximately 19% below its seasonal median. Selling-pressure readings and contracting open interest supported caution, but did not independently confirm an entry. Improving momentum from oversold levels is a reason to watch demand, not evidence that overhead supply has disappeared. THE PRINCIPAL DECISION LEVELS $117.30–$118.80: Higher repair zone $111.25–$114.25: Broader overhead repair corridor $111.10–$111.20: First upside supply and rebound-high area $110.44–$110.66: Local value reference and recovery gate $109.50–$110.30: Rotational middle; avoid forcing entries $109.40: Downside acceptance gate $108.40–$108.28: First downside objective and prior swing low $107–$108: Deeper demand $105.60: Selloff low and later downside reference $103–$107: Broader daily demand For the scenarios below, CONFIRMATION means: Two consecutive completed 24-minute closes beyond the relevant threshold, followed by a separate, subsequently completed 6-minute retest. Longs require a defended higher low; shorts require a failed retest and lower high. 1. Sell a confirmed loss of $109.40. Acceptance below $109.40 followed by a fresh failed retest would support a lower auction toward $108.40. The nearby $108.28 swing low is the next reassessment point. Illustrative parameters: entry $109.35, stop $109.80, initial target $108.40 — approximately 2.11R before costs. The stop must clear the actual completed retest high. Price being below the gate is insufficient on its own, and the example is not a standing market order. Under the assessment's illustrative 0.08% total round-trip cost assumption, reward falls to approximately 1.60R. This allowance covers fees and slippage, excludes funding, and is counted against both reward and risk. If the real structural stop is wider, the opportunity weakens further. Do not tighten the stop simply to force an attractive ratio. 2. Buy a fresh lower-edge recovery. A sweep of $109.40 followed by acceptance back above it and a defended retest could reopen a rotation toward $110.30–$110.44. Any newly formed supply below that range becomes the first objective instead. This needs a new recovery structure. Earlier support tests cannot be carried forward as confirmation after the boundary has failed. 3. Assess an upside repair above $110.66. Acceptance and a defended retest above $110.66 would improve local structure, but the first opposing supply remains $111.10. Illustrative parameters: entry $110.75, stop $110.30, initial target $111.10 — approximately 0.78R before costs. That example does not justify the long. The broader $111.25–$114.25 repair corridor is a later stage, not a substitute for the nearer objective. 4. Sell a fresh resistance failure. An immediate rejection of $110.44–$110.66 requires acceptance back below $110.30 and a failed retest. The assessment's entry $110.25, stop $110.75 and first objective $109.50 produce approximately 1.50R before costs. A new swing must materially improve positioning before this becomes attractive. An accepted breakout that subsequently fails is a different episode: require loss of its original gate and defended pivot, followed by fresh confirmation. At $108.40–$108.28, protect or reassess the initial downside idea. Extension toward $107–$108 and $105.60 requires separate acceptance through intervening demand. A reaction at daily support starts a new assessment; it does not automatically certify a reversal. BROADER CONTEXT The assessment recorded $25.0 million of net SOL ETF outflows across the five completed sessions of October 5–9. That adds a flow headwind without determining the next intraday move. The assessment's weekend macro map identified renewed DXY acceptance around 102.35–102.55 and US10Y around 5.28%–5.30% as potential headwinds. DXY below 102.0–101.9 or yields below approximately 5.20% would ease that pressure. These are conditional context checks, not automatic SOL signals; closed-market weekend readings must be refreshed when trading resumes. NOTATAE BENE Purple and pink are the Fast (10,2,30) and Slow (10,5,3) Kaufman Adaptive Moving Averages. White/light-gray sloping lines show the pitchfork median and boundaries. Gray channel fill and burgundy outer bands show the fork structure; an upward-sloping fork does not negate the bearish horizontal decision map. Cyan marks recovery gates. Red marks downside acceptance or failure gates, not universal protective stops. Yellow horizontal lines mark supply and objectives. Green marks demand and support. Gold horizontal shading marks the rotational middle / wait zone. A first-target touch before entry confirmation cancels that setup. Pending entries also expire if the gate or retest fails, after six completed 24-minute bars from the first qualifying close, or at the next 00:00 UTC reset, whichever occurs first. An open trade remains governed by its protective stop and management plan. A reached objective does not establish that an entry was filled. This outlook runs through Tuesday, October 13, 2026, at 20:00 UTC. Continuation beyond that window requires a refreshed assessment.