A strong mainland open would likely revive southbound Stock Connect buying, giving Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares support after a holiday week in which they traded without mainland investors. CICC's emphasis on third-quarter results points towards companies with improving earnings rather than broad momentum, which could favour sectors that sold off before the break if their results hold up. The risk to the call is the global backdrop: higher bond yields, a Fed still leaning towards further hikes and renewed Iran escalation risk could cap any rally if overseas sentiment sours. The yuan and China-sensitive commodities such as copper may also take direction from how confidently domestic investors return.-CICC is betting that mainland investors come back from the holiday in a buying mood, with steadier data and upcoming earnings giving them reasons to reverse the pre-break gloom.Summary:China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expects A-shares to start strongly as mainland markets reopen on Thursday after the National Day holidayIt said pre-holiday weakness reflected several external headwindsIt identified three supports: mostly higher overseas markets during the break, relatively stable domestic economic data, and third-quarter earnings reports due after the holidayCICC expects investor confidence to recover in OctoberThe brokerage also flagged two investment themes, which were not detailed in the summaries of its reportChina's A-shares are set for a strong start as mainland markets reopen after the week-long National Day holiday, according to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), which said steadier conditions at home and abroad should help lift investor sentiment.In a research report dated 8 October, the Chinese investment bank said the market's weakness before the break reflected a range of external headwinds. It pointed to three factors that should support a recovery once trading resumes at 09:30 Beijing time (0130 GMT).The first is the global backdrop over the holiday. CICC said overseas markets mostly rose while mainland exchanges were closed, giving domestic investors a firmer starting point. The second is the domestic economy, where the bank described recent data as relatively stable. The third is earnings: third-quarter results due after the holiday are expected to provide some support for the market. Taken together, CICC expects investor confidence to recover during October.The call follows a difficult end to September for mainland equities. Technology hardware shares sold off sharply in the week before the holiday, and the Shanghai Composite closed out the month around 3,840 after a muted reaction to Beijing's latest support measures.The holiday picture was also mixed. While Wall Street reached a record high, Hong Kong, the closest proxy for Chinese shares during the break, fell 2.6% on 2 October as it caught up with a global bond sell-off before recovering part of the loss. Federal Reserve minutes released on Wednesday showed most policymakers see another US rate hike as likely by year end, and fresh reports on possible US strikes on Iran have added to geopolitical risk.How quickly southbound and domestic investors return will be the first test of CICC's view. Third-quarter earnings season, along with official data on Golden Week consumption, will show whether the improvement in confidence it expects can be sustained beyond the opening sessions. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.