CONSTANT MÉHEUT2026年10月13日上个月，莫斯科一家炼油厂发生火灾，浓烟升腾。据当局称，此次火灾是由乌克兰无人机袭击引发的。 ReutersWith the front lines largely frozen, Russia and Ukraine have turned the war into a contest of economic endurance. Kyiv has gone after Russia’s oil refineries. Moscow has hit Ukraine’s ports and heavy industries.随着前线基本陷入僵局，俄罗斯和乌克兰已将战争变成一场经济耐力竞赛。基辅打击俄罗斯炼油厂。莫斯科则打击乌克兰港口和重工业。On Friday, President Trump sided with Russia in this all-important battle.上周五，特朗普总统在这场至关重要的较量中站在了俄罗斯一边。The American leader announced a deal to buy Russian diesel fuel and stepped up pressure on Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries. The diesel agreement, if it goes ahead, could send some $4 billion of American money into the Russian economy, energy experts said. A halt to refinery strikes, if Ukraine accedes to one, could be much more valuable to the Kremlin.这位美国领导人宣布了一项购买俄罗斯柴油的协议，并加大对乌克兰施压，要求其停止袭击俄罗斯炼油厂。能源专家称，如果该柴油协议推进，可能将有约40亿美元美国资金流入俄罗斯经济。如果乌克兰同意停止对炼油厂的袭击，这对克里姆林宫来说可能价值更大。Mr. Trump is enlisting Russian help in his effort to bring down sky-high diesel prices, caused mostly by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, before the midterm election early next month. Ukraine is expected to get nothing in exchange, even as the American president demands an end to Kyiv’s refinery attacks, its most potent tool for depriving the Russian war machine of income.特朗普正寻求俄罗斯帮助，以期在下月初中期选举前压低飞涨的柴油价格，柴油价格飙升主要是由美以对伊朗的战争造成的。美国总统要求基辅停止对炼油厂的袭击——这是乌克兰切段俄罗斯战争机器收入来源的最有力工具，但预计乌克兰得不到任何回报。Moscow remains free to continue hitting Ukrainian ports, steel factories, warehouses, power plants and data centers, a campaign that is gradually pushing Ukraine’s economy toward a breaking point. Such attacks destroy nearly $10 billion in business assets each year, Ukraine’s economy minister has said.莫斯科仍可继续打击乌克兰港口、钢铁厂、仓库、发电厂和数据中心，这一行动正逐渐将乌克兰经济推向崩溃边缘。乌克兰经济部长表示，此类袭击每年摧毁近100亿美元的商业资产。周六，乌克兰扎波罗热，俄罗斯空袭后，救援人员抬着一名遇难者的遗体。President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has condemned Mr. Trump’s decision to buy Russian diesel, saying in a social media post on Friday that “Russia will ‘repay’ the diesel with further terror and perfidy.”乌克兰总统泽连斯基谴责特朗普购买俄罗斯柴油的决定，他上周五在社交媒体发帖称，“俄罗斯将用进一步的恐怖和背信弃义来‘回报’这些柴油。”Mr. Trump, who lifted sanctions to allow Russia to sell the fuel to the United States, struck an economic deal with Mr. Putin even as Russian attacks have driven civilian casualties in Ukraine to what the United Nations called a “new horrifying level.”特朗普解除制裁，允许俄罗斯向美国出售该燃料，与普京达成经济协议，尽管俄罗斯的袭击已使乌克兰平民伤亡达到联合国所称的“新的骇人程度”。More than 100 Ukrainian civilians were killed in the past week alone. Moscow is striking Ukraine with an ever growing arsenal of increasingly powerful and precise weapons, taking advantage of gaps in Ukrainian air defenses.仅过去一周，就有100多名乌克兰平民丧生。莫斯科正利用乌克兰防空体系的漏洞，使用日益庞大、威力更强且精度更高的武器库对乌克兰发动袭击。Mr. Zelensky said on Monday that Ukraine had refrained from attacks on Russian oil refineries overnight. But he has said that Ukraine will agree to an extended cease-fire only if Moscow stops attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. There are fears of a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine this winter if Russia succeeds in its goal of taking down the Ukrainian power and water systems.泽连斯基周一表示，乌克兰在过去一晚未对俄罗斯炼油厂发动袭击。但他表示，只有莫斯科停止袭击乌克兰能源基础设施，乌克兰才会同意延长停火。人们担心，如果俄罗斯成功实现摧毁乌克兰电力和供水系统的目标，乌克兰今冬将出现人道主义危机。The diesel deal is another sign of Mr. Trump’s willingness to tip the scales toward Russia, the aggressor in the conflict. This time, he is offering the Kremlin assistance in an economic battle that could help decide the fate of the war, with both armies largely bogged down at the front.这笔柴油交易再次表明，特朗普愿意让天平向这场冲突中的侵略者俄罗斯倾斜。这一次，他在这场可能决定战争命运的经济战中向克里姆林宫提供援助，与此同时，俄乌两军在前线基本陷入僵局。Ukraine’s campaign against Russian oil infrastructure began in 2024, with strikes on oil depots and refineries. The effort at first had little effect. But as Ukraine expanded its fleet of attack drones and learned how to target critical components that are hard to repair, the effects increased.乌克兰对俄罗斯石油基础设施的行动始于2024年，当时袭击了油库和炼油厂。起初效果甚微。但随着乌克兰扩大攻击无人机机队规模，并掌握了如何锁定那些难以修复的关键部件，行动效果逐渐增强。Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, combined with those on other businesses, have cost Russia about 1 percent of its gross domestic product, President Vladimir V. Putin acknowledged this month.普京总统本月承认，乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂及其他企业的袭击已使俄罗斯损失约1%的国内生产总值。Reported gasoline output is down by 20 percent compared with 2025 levels, and diesel production is estimated to have fallen by nearly 30 percent, the International Energy Agency said in a report last month. The Ukrainian attacks prompted Russia to impose restrictions on diesel exports that Moscow now says it will lift to sell fuel to the United States.国际能源署在上月一份报告中称，俄罗斯汽油产量较2025年水平下降了20%，柴油产量估计下降了近30%。乌克兰的袭击促使俄罗斯对柴油出口实施了限制，但莫斯科现在表示将解除这些限制，以便向美国出售燃料。The energy agency added that Russia’s oil tax revenue from January to August was nearly 17 percent below the level of the same period in 2025.国际能源署还称，俄罗斯1月至8月的石油税收入比2025年同期低近17%。Should Kyiv be forced to halt its refinery strikes, Russia’s advantage in the two countries’ contest to starve the other of money will only grow.如果基辅被迫停止对炼油厂的袭击，在两国通过经济手段相互施压的较量中，俄罗斯的优势只会扩大。Nowhere is that imbalance clearer than in the near closure of Ukraine’s ports.这种不平衡在乌克兰港口濒临关闭一事上表现得最为明显。For months, Russia has attacked commercial ships sailing in and out of the ports in the southern region of Odesa, aiming to discourage them from calling there. The ports are a lifeline for Ukraine’s economy, accounting for 60 percent of the country’s total export volume. They are used to export grain from the country’s fertile farmland, a key source of revenue.数月来，俄罗斯一直袭击进出敖德萨南部地区港口的商船，目的是阻止它们停靠那里。这些港口是乌克兰经济的生命线，占该国总出口量的60%。它们用于出口该国肥沃农田产出的谷物，这是乌克兰的重要收入来源。5月，乌克兰敖德萨州的乔尔诺莫尔斯克港。俄罗斯的袭击严重限制了这座港口的出口。Because of the Russian attacks, traffic through the three Odesa ports was down nearly 95 percent in August and September, compared with the same period last year, according to port data obtained by The New York Times. In September, only 12 ships made it out of the ports, compared to 266 in the same month last year.根据《纽约时报》获得的港口数据，由于俄罗斯的袭击，8月和9月通过敖德萨三个港口的交通量较去年同期下降近95%。9月，只有12艘船驶出这些港口，而去年同期为266艘。Ukraine has tried to redirect some of the traffic to its ports on the Danube River, which connects the country to Romania. Ships can travel down the river through Romania and back into the Black Sea, sailing off the coast of NATO countries toward Turkey. But the Danube ports can handle only about half of the cargo that normally moves through the Odesa ports.乌克兰试图将部分交通转向其多瑙河港口，该河连接乌克兰与罗马尼亚。船只可以顺河而下，穿过罗马尼亚，再进入黑海，沿着北约国家海岸驶向土耳其。但多瑙河港口只能处理通常由敖德萨港口运输货物的大约一半。And the Danube route is now under threat, too. Last week, drones struck three ships off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, sinking two and killing several crew members. All three vessels had carried Ukrainian grain in the past, according to Romanian authorities and port data.多瑙河路线现在也受到威胁。上周，无人机袭击了罗马尼亚和保加利亚沿海的三艘船，击沉两艘，造成数名船员死亡。根据罗马尼亚当局和港口数据，这三艘船过去都曾运输乌克兰粮食。Ukraine has accused Russia of carrying out the attacks, though Romania and Bulgaria have steered clear of assigning blame. Russia did not comment on the attacks.乌克兰指责俄罗斯实施了这些袭击，但罗马尼亚和保加利亚均未明确归咎于任何一方。俄罗斯未对袭击置评。The halt to Ukraine’s seaborne exports could have catastrophic consequences for the country’s economy, with effects across many sectors. Ukraine’s agriculture minister said this month that farmers were unable to export about 30 million tons of agricultural products, worth about $30 billion.乌克兰海运出口的中断可能对该国经济造成灾难性后果，并影响许多行业。乌克兰农业部长本月表示，农民无法出口约3000万吨农产品，价值约300亿美元。Russia has also suffered from Ukrainian strikes on its Black Sea ports, which have constrained its agricultural exports. But economists say the impact is not comparable because Russia has more export routes than Ukraine, including through the Baltic and Caspian Seas, which Ukrainian weapons cannot reach as easily.俄罗斯也因乌克兰对其黑海港口的袭击而受损，其农产品出口受到限制。但经济学家表示，影响不可同日而语，因为俄罗斯比乌克兰拥有更多出口路线，包括通过波罗的海和里海，而乌克兰的武器难以轻易触及这些区域。In a sign of that imbalance, Russia became the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil in the 2025-26 marketing year, overtaking Ukraine for the first time in two decades, according to estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.这种不平衡的一个迹象是，根据美国农业部的估计，俄罗斯在2025-26销售年度成为世界最大葵花籽油出口国，20年来首次超过乌克兰。Russia appears to be following a methodical approach to dismantling Ukraine’s economic base, striking all kinds of assets that an economy needs to function, including export routes, factories and energy facilities.俄罗斯似乎正在有条不紊地瓦解乌克兰的经济基础，打击经济运转所需的各种资产，包括出口路线、工厂和能源设施。The fate of Metinvest, Ukraine’s largest steel manufacturer, is a case in point.乌克兰最大钢铁制造商梅廷维斯特的命运就是一个例证。Its factories, including two large steel plants in southeastern Ukraine, were already suffering from power outages caused by Russian strikes on the grid. Then came attacks on the ports, which blocked a key export route, and on the railways, which left its products stranded inside the country. Finally, strikes on the plants themselves forced them to shut down last month.该公司的工厂此前已因俄罗斯对电网的打击而遭受停电困扰，包括乌克兰东南部的两家大型钢厂。随后，港口遭到袭击，一条关键出口路线被阻断；铁路也遭到袭击，使其产品滞留在国内。最后，针对工厂本身的袭击迫使它们在上月关闭。The collapse of Ukraine’s steel industry, which contributed more than 7 percent of Ukraine’s economic output last year, will have severe economic consequences, said Oleksandr Myronenko, Metinvest’s chief operating officer. The company is planning layoffs for administrative personnel, and towns that depend on steel plants will see their budgets shrink.梅廷维斯特首席运营官亚历山大·米罗年科表示，乌克兰钢铁业的崩溃将带来严重经济后果；该行业去年贡献了乌克兰超过7%的经济产出。该公司正计划裁减行政人员，而那些依赖钢铁厂的城镇将面临财政预算缩减。In September, for the first time in a century, not a single metric ton of steel was produced in Ukraine for one week.9月，乌克兰出现了百年来首次一周内钢铁产量为零的情况。Constant Méheut是时报记者，报道乌克兰战争。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site