H1 Bearish Retest From SupplyGoldOANDA:XAUUSDMason_Drake XAUUSD is trading around 4,143 after recovering from the recent liquidity sweep near 4,085–4,100. Short-term structure has improved with a fresh BOS, but price remains inside the broader H1 bearish channel, so the current rebound is still corrective until higher resistance is reclaimed. Gold recovered modestly on Thursday after touching a two-month low, with spot bullion rising about 0.4% to $4,126.78. Elevated Treasury yields and the strong dollar remain key headwinds, although concerns over U.S. government debt continue to support some defensive demand for gold. Markets currently price only around a 17% probability of an October Fed hike, but roughly 81% for December. Reuters Fed policy remains restrictive. Governor Christopher Waller said additional hikes will likely still be required, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also argued that further tightening is needed to return inflation toward 2%. Reuters Treasury pressure eased slightly after a strong 30-year auction, with the U.S. 10-year yield falling to around 5.23%, although yields remain historically elevated. Brent crude also closed around $103.92, keeping energy-driven inflation risk in focus. Reuters Technical View H1 remains structurally bearish inside the descending channel. The latest rebound has produced a short-term BOS around 4,140, showing that buyers are attempting to recover, but price is still below the main supply structure. The first important upside decision area is 4,165–4,185. This Supply Zone overlaps with prior structure and sits close to the upper boundary of the current bearish channel. A corrective rally into this area followed by rejection, failed acceptance or bearish MSS would favor another rotation lower. The first downside objective sits around 4,118–4,132, where the immediate Demand Zone is located. If selling pressure expands through that support, the deeper 4,062–4,076 Major Demand Zone becomes the next important liquidity target. Key Zones Current Price: 4,143.130 Supply / Sell Priority: 4,165–4,185 Major Supply: 4,215–4,228 Demand Zone: 4,118–4,132 Major Demand: 4,062–4,076 Trading Plan Sell Priority: 4,165–4,185 Condition: wait for a corrective recovery into supply followed by bearish rejection, liquidity sweep, lower-high formation or bearish MSS confirmation. TP1: 4,140–4,145 TP2: 4,118–4,132 TP3: 4,062–4,076 Invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance above 4,190 would weaken the immediate bearish setup. Sell View The cleaner approach is not to chase shorts around 4,143 after the recent recovery. I prefer letting Gold retrace toward 4,165–4,185 first. If sellers clearly defend that zone, the bearish channel structure favors another move toward lower liquidity. Important Note The macro picture remains two-sided. Slightly softer yields can support short-term Gold recovery, but Fed officials continue to signal that additional tightening may still be necessary. Rising oil prices also keep inflation risk elevated. Reuters Final View The H1 rebound is improving short-term structure, but the broader bias remains bearish below supply. The main scenario is a corrective recovery into 4,165–4,185 followed by bearish confirmation, targeting 4,118–4,132 and potentially 4,062–4,076 if downside momentum expands. Can sellers defend H1 supply and rotate Gold back toward the Demand Zone?