The People’s Bank of China publishes its daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time the previous evening), and the number has become one of the most closely followed signals in Asian currency markets. Its importance has grown over the past month as Beijing has moved from holding back the yuan’s rise to steering it gradually higher.---Earlier:PBOC reiterates yuan stance in another subtle message to the US and TrumpChina bucks global bond rout as 10-year yield touches 1.7%---Under China’s managed float, the onshore yuan may trade up to 2% either side of the midpoint set each morning. The central bank arrives at that midpoint by weighing the previous session’s close, moves in the US dollar and other major currencies, wider global FX conditions, and domestic priorities including capital flows, growth and financial stability. Because the calculation leaves room for judgement, the fixing doubles as a tool for shaping expectations.Once the rate is published, onshore trading proceeds within the band. If pressure drives the yuan toward either limit, the PBOC can respond by buying or selling the currency directly, adjusting liquidity, or acting through state-owned banks. That is why markets treat the fixing as a statement of intent. A midpoint stronger than forecast usually signals resistance to depreciation, while a weaker one can point to acceptance of a softer yuan, or discomfort with how quickly it is gaining.For close to a year, the second message prevailed. The PBOC consistently set the midpoint weaker than market forecasts, which traders took as an effort to slow appreciation. That gap was at its widest since February in late August, soon after the yuan hit a three-and-a-half-year high against the dollar.September marked a turning point. The central bank lifted the fixing for eight sessions in a row, its longest run since 2023, taking the midpoint to its strongest since February 2023. The onshore yuan climbed to levels last seen in January 2023 and the offshore rate to its firmest since July 2022. Yet the fixing is still being set well below estimates, at one point by more than 500 pips against a Reuters survey, suggesting Beijing is easing the brakes rather than releasing them.Goldman Sachs analysts tied the firmer fixings to the run-up to a Trump-Xi summit, a pattern they said matches past diplomacy, and expect policymakers to remain comfortable with steady, gradual gains.The trade-off has not changed. A stronger yuan supports capital stability and lowers import costs, but rapid gains could hurt exporters while the domestic economy remains soft. The daily gap between the fixing and consensus forecasts remains the clearest guide to how far Beijing will let the yuan run, and whether that tolerance outlasts the summit This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.