FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD:The US dollar has been supported recently despite a dovish repricing triggered by Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson comments that pushed back against expectations of a rate hike in October. The main reason was surging Treasury yields and risk-off flows into the greenback supported also by European debt concerns. The focus has been particularly on France, where political uncertainty and concerns over the country's large fiscal deficit have pushed French government bond yields higher and widened the spread over German Bunds to its highest level since the eurozone debt crisis. A stabilization in French spreads could allow some of the euro's risk premium to unwind and trigger a pullback in the US dollar, while further widening and contagion to other countries would likely keep the greenback supported.Moreover, the recent US-Iran “ceasefire” seems to be coming to an end as Trump is weighing new strikes against Iranian targets before the November elections. The reports triggered a surge in oil prices and worsened the risk sentiment further.In the short term, a de-escalation will likely trigger a pullback in US dollar longs, while a prolonged stalemate or a direct US-Iran confrontation should keep supporting the greenback into new highs. INR:On the INR side, the rupee has come under renewed pressure, falling into new record lows against the US dollar despite the RBI delivering a rate hike on Wednesday and shifting its stance to “calibrated tightening”.The move was accompanied by signals that further hikes could follow, but the additional policy support has so far failed to offset strong dollar demand, foreign portfolio outflows and the broader deterioration in the external backdrop. The main driver continues to be oil. India is heavily dependent on imported crude, meaning higher oil prices require Indian importers to buy more dollars to pay for energy, increasing demand for USD and worsening the country's trade and current-account position. The latest surge in crude oil driven by renewed US-Iran escalation, is therefore negative for the rupee. Monetary tightening can support the currency through higher domestic yields, but when the oil shock is large enough, the resulting increase in dollar demand can overwhelm that effect. As long as oil prices remain elevated, the rupee is likely to remain under pressure, leaving the RBI facing the difficult task of tightening policy while simultaneously using its foreign-exchange reserves to smooth the currency's decline. In the short-term, a de-escalation could trigger a relief rally in the rupee as oil prices will likely fall. A prolonged stalemate or direct US-Iran confrontation, on the other hand, will continue weigh on the currency. In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar, so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong major technical levels to keep pushing the USD/INR pair into new highs. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINRis breaking above the all-time high as surging oil prices are sending the Indian rupee to new lows. If the price falls back below the all-time high, we can expect the sellers to step in, with a defined risk above the high, to position for a correction into the 96.10 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will continue to pile in for new record highs as long as the price stays above the all-time high.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to keep targeting new record highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 96.10 support next.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have another minor upward trendline that could act as support. If the price pulls back, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the correction into the next trendline.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTodaywe get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. The focus will remain on US-Iran developments. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.