IVAN PENN2026年10月13日 Producers of solar panels in the United States say they are on the cusp of a technological breakthrough that could upend the industry and even threaten China’s grip on it.美国太阳能板生产商表示，他们即将迎来一项技术突破，这项突破可能颠覆整个行业，甚至威胁到中国在该行业的垄断地位。The manufacturers are racing to develop new kinds of panels that can generate 25 percent more energy than most such devices available today. If they are successful, the advance will allow the world to meet the rapidly rising demand for electricity with less land and roof area.这些制造商正在竞相开发新型太阳能板，其发电量比目前市面上大多数同类产品高出25%。如果成功，这一进步将使世界能以更少的土地和屋顶面积来满足迅速增长的电力需求。The new technology, known as tandem solar, involves adding second and third layers of material, like a layer cake, to allow panels to convert more of the sun’s radiance into electricity.这项新技术被称为叠层太阳能，通过像层层蛋糕一样添加第二层和第三层材料，使太阳能电池板能够将更多的太阳辐射转化为电能。Researchers have been working to perfect tandem panels for many years, but now several companies, including Tandem PV, First Solar and Hanwha Qcells, say they are preparing to sell such panels commercially soon, after successfully testing the devices and obtaining certifications from technical bodies.研究人员多年来一直致力于完善叠层太阳能电池板，但现在，包括Tandem PV、First Solar和韩华Qcells在内的几家公司表示，在成功测试这些设备并获得技术机构认证后，他们正准备很快将此类电池板投入商业销售。“It is the next frontier,” said Mike Carr, executive director of the Solar Energy Manufacturers for America Coalition. He acknowledged that Chinese companies were also working on tandem solar but said their technology “is not better than ours and maybe even behind us.”“这是下一个前沿领域，”美国太阳能制造商联盟执行主任迈克·卡尔说。他承认中国企业也在研发叠层太阳能，但表示中国的技术“不比我们的更好，甚至可能落后于我们”。But the new tandem panels and their manufacturers will face many challenges. Power producers will be reluctant to buy new devices that are too expensive or until manufacturers can convince them that tandem panels will not degrade more quickly than conventional panels.但新的叠层太阳能板及其制造商将面临许多挑战。电力生产商将不愿购买过于昂贵的新设备，除非制造商能让他们相信，叠层太阳能电池的性能衰减速度不会比传统太阳能电池更快。U.S. politics could be another barrier. Republicans in Congress and the Trump administration have made it hard for new solar farms to obtain federal permits while trying to increase the use of fossil fuels and nuclear power plants.美国政治可能是另一个障碍。国会共和党人和特朗普政府一方面试图增加化石燃料和核电站的使用，一方面让新的太阳能发电场难以获得联邦许可。Then there is China, which controls about 80 percent of the solar panel market by supplying either panels or their components.此外还有中国，它通过供应太阳能板及其组件控制着约80%的太阳能板市场。China devastated the U.S. solar panel manufacturing industry by offering devices at prices far lower than companies in the United States, Germany and Japan — which dominated the industry until around 2010.中国以远低于美国、德国和日本公司的价格提供设备，重创了美国太阳能板制造业；此前，美国、德国和日本曾主导该行业直至2010年左右。The Biden and Trump administrations have tried to revive U.S. solar manufacturing with tariffs, subsidies and other policies. Partly as a result, new factories have been built across the country in recent years. Hanwha, a South Korean company that bought the German solar manufacturer Qcells in 2012, has spent billions on production lines in Georgia, including in Cartersville, north of Atlanta.拜登和特朗普政府都试图通过关税、补贴和其他政策重振美国太阳能制造业。部分得益于此，近年来美国各地纷纷建起了新工厂。韩国企业韩华在2012年收购了德国太阳能制造商 Qcells，已在佐治亚州的生产线上投入数十亿美元，包括亚特兰大以北的卡特斯维尔。Energy experts say perfecting tandem panels before the Chinese do would allow the United States, Germany and other countries to reclaim a big share of the global solar industry.能源专家表示，若能在中国之前完善叠层电池技术，美国、德国及其他国家将有望重新夺回全球太阳能产业的巨大份额。Qcells has been testing its tandem solar panels in its lab in Germany as well as in fields in the United States, Australia, Cyprus and South Korea to show that they are ready. Among other things, the company has been blasting panels with LED light to see how they will perform. It has also been firing balls of ice — some roughly the size of marbles, others as big as or slightly bigger than golf balls — at panels to see how they handle extreme weather.Qcells一直在其德国实验室以及美国、澳大利亚、塞浦路斯和韩国的实地测试其叠层太阳能电池板，以证明它们已经准备就绪。除其他测试外，该公司一直用 LED 光照射太阳能电池板，以观察其表现。它还向太阳能电池板发射冰丸——有些大约弹珠大小，另一些与高尔夫球一样大或略大——以检验其应对极端天气的能力。。Qcells公司进行的一项测试中模拟了冰雹。The tests are designed to reassure energy companies, investors and lenders that the new panels will last 20 to 30 years once they are installed in baking deserts or in fields subject to torrential downpours.这些测试旨在让能源公司、投资者和贷款方放心：无论安装在酷热的沙漠中，还是在常受暴雨侵袭的田野里，这些新的太阳能电池板都能使用20至30年。The power industry is “quite conservative in accepting new technologies,” said Fabian Fertig, head of tandem research and development for Qcells, who is based in Leipzig, Germany. “We’ve been focused on stability. We have to convince banks that this new technology can deliver.”电力行业“在接受新技术方面相当保守”，Qcells叠层研发负责人法比安·费尔蒂希说。他常驻德国莱比锡。“我们一直专注于稳定性。我们必须让银行相信，这项新技术能够兑现承诺。”Scientists developed early tandem panels decades ago, but it has taken time to ensure that they could withstand harsh conditions — from heat and humidity to pounding hail.科学家早在几十年前就开发出了早期叠层太阳能电池板，但要确保它们能够承受从高温、高湿到猛烈冰雹等各种恶劣条件，仍花费了相当长的时间。“There are all these questions around how long they actually last,” said Chetan Krishna, a principal at RMI, a research organization that specializes in sustainability and was previously known as the Rocky Mountain Institute. “Are there degradation issues that we don’t know yet?”“围绕它们实际能用多久存在各种各样的问题，”RMI（一家专注于可持续发展的研究机构，前身为落基山研究所）负责人切坦·克里希纳说。“是否存在我们尚不知道的衰减问题？”Mr. Krishna and other experts say they believe the tandem solar panels are very close to being ready.克里希纳和其他专家表示，他们认为叠层太阳能电池板已非常接近投入实际应用。But the technology remains expensive. By some estimates, these panels could cost three to three and a half times as much as conventional devices, which are typically made of one layer of silicon.但这项技术仍然昂贵。根据一些估计，这些太阳能电池板的价格可能是传统设备的三到3.5倍，而传统设备通常由单层硅制成。The cost of buying and installing conventional panels for solar farms ranges from about 93 cents to $1.06 per watt, according to a report by the Solar Energy Industries Association.根据太阳能产业协会的一份报告，为太阳能发电场购买和安装传统太阳能电池板的成本约为每瓦93美分到1.06美元。Andrés Gluski, chief executive of AES, a big utility and power company, said price would be crucial to the success of tandem panels because Chinese manufacturers sold solar panels at very low prices. China “could probably supply the world twice over,” he said.大型公用事业和电力公司AES的首席执行官安德烈斯·格卢斯基表示，价格对叠层太阳能电池板的成功至关重要，因为中国制造商以极低价格销售太阳能电池板。他说，中国“可能足以满足全球两倍的需求”。The technology for modern solar panels was created at AT&T’s Bell Labs in 1954. But broad use of it didn’t take off until the 1980s as the devices became more efficient at converting sunshine into electricity. Improvements helped lower costs and have made the technology the cheapest way to generate electricity.现代太阳能板技术于1954年在AT&T的贝尔实验室诞生。但直到20世纪80年代，随着太阳能设备将阳光转化为电能的效率提高，该技术才开始得到广泛应用。技术的改进有助于降低成本，并使该技术成为最经济的发电方式。In recent years, energy companies have also figured out how to pair solar panels with batteries to supply energy hours after the sun has set. Solar and batteries accounted for 70 percent of the capacity added to U.S. grids in the first half of this year, according to Wood Mackenzie, an energy research firm.近年来，能源公司还摸索出了将太阳能电池板与电池相结合的方法，以便在日落后数小时仍能供电。根据能源研究公司伍德麦肯兹的数据，今年上半年，太阳能和电池占美国电网新增容量的70%。Solar energy made up nearly 9 percent of the electricity produced in the United States in 2025, up from 3 percent in 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration.根据美国能源信息署的数据，2025年太阳能占美国发电量的近9%，高于2020年的3%。Widespread use of tandem panels could significantly increase solar’s share of the country’s electricity, helping to satisfy the surging demand for power from data centers used to develop artificial intelligence.叠层太阳能板的广泛使用有望显著提高太阳能在美国电力中的份额，帮助满足用于开发人工智能的数据中心激增的电力需求。Energy analysts evaluate the dependability of different sources of power by measuring their capacity factors. In theory, a power source that can supply electricity 24 hours a day, 365 days a year would have a capacity factor of 100 percent. But no power plants operate at that level because they require maintenance, upgrades, refueling and so on.能源分析师通过衡量容量系数来评估不同电源的可靠性。理论上，一种能够一年365天、每天24小时供电的电源，其容量系数应为100%。但没有电厂能达到这一水平，因为它们需要进行维护、升级、补给燃料等操作。Nuclear plants typically offer the highest capacity factors, in the low 90s. Large natural gas power plants generally operate at about 58 percent, while U.S. solar farms average roughly 24 percent, according to the E.I.A. That is primarily because they produce electricity only when the sun is shining and cannot convert all of the light they receive into usable energy.核电站通常具有最高的容量系数，达到90%出头。根据美国能源信息署的数据，大型天然气发电厂一般以约58%的系数运行，而美国太阳能发电场的平均容量系数约为24%。这主要是因为它们只在阳光充足时发电，并且无法将接收到的所有光都转化为可用能源。在Qcells的一个测试基地，羊群在太阳能电池板阵列间吃草。Solar executives assert that tandem panels could have capacity factors of more than 31 percent. As a result, energy companies would be able to generate the same electricity on less land and with fewer materials.太阳能行业高管坚称，叠层太阳能电池板的容量系数可能超过31%。因此，能源公司将能够在更少的土地上、使用更少的材料产生同样的电力。The design of tandem panels favors First Solar, one of the few U.S. manufacturers that survived as Chinese producers became dominant. First Solar’s products use a thin film material that other manufactures would most likely need to perfect to make the layers in tandem panels.叠层太阳能电池板的设计对First Solar很有利，它是在中国生产商占据主导地位时幸存下来的少数美国制造商之一。First Solar的产品使用一种薄膜材料，其他制造商若要制造叠层电池板中的各层，很可能需要先将这种材料完善。“We’ve invested over $2 billion in thin film research and development, including this program,” said Mark Widmar, chief executive of First Solar, in Phoenix.“我们已在薄膜研发上投资超过20亿美元，包括这个项目，”位于凤凰城的First Solar 首席执行官马克·维德马说。Some energy companies have bought early versions of the tandem panels to ensure that they do not get left behind, said Wayne Li, a principal at the Electric Power Research Institute, a nonprofit research organization. How dependable and durable the panels are will require extensive third-party testing, he added.非营利研究机构电力研究院的负责人韦恩·李（音）说，一些能源公司已经购买了叠层太阳能电池板的早期版本，以确保自己不被时代淘汰。他还说，这些电池板的可靠性和耐用性还需要经过广泛的第三方测试。“Manufacturers are not very open to share the details and the data,” Mr. Li said.“制造商不太愿意分享细节和数据，”韦恩·李说。图片：Patrick JunkerIvan Penn是一名报道能源行业的记者，常驻洛杉矶。他的工作包括报道清洁能源、电网故障和公用事业的经济运作机制。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site