JAMES PATON2026年10月13日位于英国利兹的一家比亚迪展厅。在欧洲售出的汽车中，大约每10辆就有一辆是中国汽车。 Owen Richards for The New York TimesBYD, China’s dominant maker of electric vehicles, aims to open so many outlets in Germany that no one has to travel more than 20 minutes to buy one of its cars. One of its Chinese rivals, Xiaomi, sees Germany as the foundation of its European expansion plans, after selling 700,000 cars back home.中国领先的电动汽车制造商比亚迪计划在德国开设大量销售网点，使任何人前往最近的比亚迪门店买车，路上用时都不超过20分钟。其中国竞争对手之一小米在中国本土售出70万辆汽车后，将德国视为其欧洲扩张计划的基础。Germany is the birthplace of the automobile and the home of Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz. These days, it is also a top destination for Chinese companies selling cars at a considerable discount to European vehicles.德国是汽车的诞生地，也是大众、宝马和梅赛德斯-奔驰的故乡。如今，这里也已成为中国车企的首选市场，中国车的售价比欧洲车低得多。“Customers don’t care if it’s a Chinese car or a German car,” said Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, a German auto analyst and former executive at Porsche and other companies. What they do care about, he said, is the price.“顾客不在乎它是中国车还是德国车，”德国汽车分析师、曾在保时捷等公司担任高管的费迪南德·杜登赫费尔说。他说，他们真正在乎的是价格。Shut out of the United States by tariffs, Chinese automakers have focused on other overseas markets — and Europe is a prime target. Low-cost Chinese car brands are enticing customers across the continent as surging gasoline prices drive interest in electric vehicles. Chinese cars account for about one in every 10 cars sold in Europe, up from one in 100 five years ago.由于被关税挡在美国之外，中国汽车制造商专注于其他海外市场——欧洲正是主要目标。随着汽油价格飙升，人们对电动汽车的兴趣日益浓厚，低价中国汽车品牌正在吸引整个欧洲大陆的消费者。目前欧洲每售出10辆汽车中就有一辆是中国品牌，而五年前这一比例仅为百分之一。Chinese brands are rapidly gaining ground on leaders like Volkswagen. BYD’s sales in Europe have more than doubled this year. Sales of another popular Chinese manufacturer, Chery, have grown even faster. The company’s Jaecoo 7, known as the “Temu Range Rover” in a nod to the Chinese bargain-shopping app, was Britain’s best-selling vehicle in September. Xiaomi plans to add to the competition after teaming up with eight dealers in Germany.中国品牌正在迅速追赶大众等领先品牌。比亚迪今年在欧洲的销量增长了一倍多。另一家受欢迎的中国制造商奇瑞的销量增长更快。该公司的杰酷7是英国9月份最畅销的车型。这款车也被称为“Temu版路虎揽胜”，借用了中国廉价购物应用Temu的名字。小米在与德国八家经销商合作后，计划加入竞争。中国汽车制造商奇瑞生产的杰酷7上个月成为英国最畅销的车型。It’s a love-hate relationship, however. Consumers increasingly want to buy Chinese cars. Policymakers are trying to stem the flow. The European Union reached a deal with Beijing on Friday that European officials said could halve the number of hybrid gasoline-electric cars that China sends to the bloc in the next four years.然而，这是一种爱恨交加的关系。消费者越来越希望购买中国汽车。而政策制定者正试图阻止这股潮流。欧盟周五与北京达成一项协议，欧洲官员称，该协议可能使中国在未来四年向欧盟出口的油电混合动力汽车数量减半。The agreement could help ease the pain for European carmakers, though much about implementation remains unclear. Cheaper imports from China are threatening the industry, which contributes about 7 percent of the E.U.’s economic output. The E.U. industry chief, Stéphane Séjourné, has warned that the sector is in “mortal danger.” Germany’s auto industry group has predicted the loss of up to 225,000 jobs by 2035.尽管具体实施细节尚不明确，但该协议或有助于缓解欧洲汽车制造商的困境。来自中国的廉价进口车正威胁该行业，该行业贡献了欧盟约7%的经济产出。欧盟工业主管斯特凡纳·塞茹尔内警告说，该行业正处于“致命危险”之中。德国汽车工业协会预测，到2035年将有多达22.5万个工作岗位流失。The E.U. has faced growing pressure to impose tougher measures to shield industries from what companies see as unfair competition. Left unchecked, Chinese carmakers could triple their share of the European auto market to as much as 30 percent by 2035, said Harald Hendrikse, a managing director at Citi Research.欧盟面临越来越大的压力，要求其采取更严厉措施，保护产业免受企业视为不公平竞争的影响。花旗研究董事总经理哈拉尔德·亨德里克塞说，如果放任不管，到2035年，中国汽车制造商在欧洲汽车市场的份额可能增加两倍，达到30%。In taking on China, Europe faces a conundrum: How can the region protect its industries while keeping prices affordable? Efforts to insulate the sector would come with a cost.在与中国的较量中，欧洲面临一个难题：该地区如何在保护其产业的同时保持价格可负担？保护该行业的努力将伴随成本。“There’s no free lunch in protectionism,” said David Bailey, a professor and industrial policy expert at University of Birmingham. “European and British automakers may gain some breathing room, but consumers could face higher prices and less choice, especially at the lower end of the market.”“保护主义中没有免费的午餐，”伯明翰大学工业政策专家、教授戴维·贝利说。“欧洲和英国汽车制造商可能获得一些喘息空间，但消费者可能面临更高价格和更少选择，尤其是在低端市场。”For example, one proposal being considered would steer public spending toward European companies, prioritizing battery cells made in the region. But such a rule could raise the price of an electric car by 2,100 euros, or more than $2,300, according to researchers at Bruegel, a think tank in Brussels.例如，正在考虑的一项提案将把公共支出引向欧洲公司，优先使用该地区制造的电池电芯。但布鲁塞尔智库布鲁盖尔的研究人员称，这样的规定可能使一辆电动汽车的价格提高2100欧元。“Who will potentially lose from all of this?” asked Simone Tagliapietra, a deputy director at Bruegel. “I would say the middle class. They need to buy cars, right? And pushing up the cost with such provisions might be costly and even prevent them from accessing technology that, given the current energy crisis, is existentially important for Europeans.”“这一切最终可能让谁蒙受损失？”布鲁盖尔副主管西蒙娜·塔利亚皮耶特拉问道。“我会说是中产阶级。他们需要买车，对吧？而此类条款带来的推高成本可能代价高昂，甚至可能使他们无法获得这项技术——鉴于当前的能源危机，这项技术对欧洲人至关重要。”In 2024, the European Union imposed tariffs as high as 45 percent on Chinese electric cars to try to counter Beijing’s subsidies. But the bloc spared hybrid vehicles, which were then still a small segment of the market. Chinese manufacturers pivoted, boosting exports of hybrids, which are subject to only a 10 percent tariff.2024年，欧盟对中国电动汽车征收高达45%的关税，试图抵消北京补贴的影响。但欧盟对混合动力汽车予以豁免，当时该车型在市场上仍仅占很小份额。中国制造商随即调整策略，增加混合动力汽车出口，而这类车仅适用10%的关税。Chinese hybrids have since poured into Europe, accounting for more than a fifth of the category’s total sales and pushing policymakers to consider wider trade restrictions. In Poland, Hungary and Romania, Chinese companies have gained more than half of the plug-in hybrid market, according to Dataforce, which tracks the auto sector.此后，中国混合动力汽车涌入欧洲，占该类别总销量的五分之一以上，促使政策制定者考虑更广泛的贸易限制。根据追踪汽车行业的Dataforce的数据，在波兰、匈牙利和罗马尼亚，中国公司已获得插电式混合动力市场一半以上的份额。History shows restricting supplies of those Chinese cars would probably increase prices, which over time could benefit the country’s manufacturers in Europe. In 2013, China agreed to reduce the number of solar panels that it shipped to Europe. In turn, Chinese manufacturers raised prices, pulling in larger profits that they could invest in research and new factories.历史表明，限制这些中国汽车的供应可能会推高价格，而从长远来看，这反而可能使中国汽车制造商在欧洲获益。2013年，中国同意减少向欧洲出口的太阳能电池板数量。作为回应，中国制造商提高了价格，从而获得了更高的利润，并可将这些利润用于投资研发和新工厂建设。Today China dominates the world’s solar industry.如今，中国主导着全球太阳能产业。Chinese companies have their eye on the long term, seeing this period as a “bridge” toward making cars on European soil, said Matthias Schmidt, an industry analyst in Germany. He pointed to Leapmotor’s production partnership with Stellantis and BYD’s plan to produce cars in Hungary.德国行业分析师马蒂亚斯·施密特说，中国公司着眼于长期，将这一时期视为迈向在欧洲本土生产汽车的“桥梁”。他提到零跑汽车与斯泰兰蒂斯的生产合作，以及比亚迪在匈牙利生产汽车的计划。像奇瑞这样的中国企业仍然认为欧洲市场蕴藏着巨大的机遇，即使新的贸易措施会放缓它们在欧洲的扩张步伐。Chinese companies still see significant opportunity in Europe, even if new trade measures slow their advance. Spain is among the countries where they have seen strong demand and taken advantage of an increasing appetite for electric and hybrid vehicles. Electric cars have caught up with gas-powered vehicles, and electrics and hybrids together make up more than two thirds of the European market.尽管新的贸易措施放缓了中国企业的扩张步伐，但它们仍认为欧洲市场蕴藏着巨大机遇。西班牙便是其中之一：中国公司在那里发现了强劲需求，抓住了当地人对电动车和混动车越来越感兴趣的机会。电动汽车的销量已追平燃油车，而电动汽车和混合动力车合计占据了欧洲市场三分之二以上的份额。At the end of last year, Spain had about 600 dealerships selling Chinese brands. By the end of 2026, that number will likely grow to 1,000, according to Faconauto, a dealership association in Madrid. The market share of Chinese brands in Spain has risen fivefold in three years to about 15 percent, led by BYD and MG, the iconic British automaker now owned by a Chinese state-run company.去年年底，西班牙约有600家销售中国品牌的经销商。根据马德里经销商协会Faconauto的预测，到2026年底，这一数字可能增长到1000家。在比亚迪和名爵带动下，中国品牌在西班牙的市场份额三年内增至五倍，达到约15%，名爵是标志性的英国汽车制造商，现为中国国有企业所有。“For the Spanish people, this is very good,” said Marta Blázquez, Faconauto’s president.“这对西班牙人来说是好事，”Faconauto总裁玛尔塔·布拉斯克斯说。Chinese brands have retained a significant edge on price compared with their European peers, though the gap has narrowed from a discount of as much as 30 percent in recent years, she said. The Center for European Policy Analysis in February estimated that the average starting price for a BYD electric vehicle in Europe ranged from €30,000 to €45,000, compared with prices closer to €50,000 for European E.V.s.她说，与欧洲同行相比，中国品牌在价格上保持了显著优势，但这一差距已从近年高达30%的折扣幅度有所收窄。欧洲政策分析中心2月估计，比亚迪电动汽车在欧洲的平均起售价在3万至4.5万欧元之间，而欧洲电动汽车的价格接近5万欧元。In Germany, even though Chinese car brands remain smaller players, they’re growing quickly. BYD said it planned to expand to as many as 300 dealerships by the end of the year. After more than doubling in 2025, sales of Chinese cars in Germany have continued to surge this year, according to Inovev, a consulting firm in Paris.在德国，尽管中国汽车品牌仍是较小的参与者，但它们增长迅速。计划在今年年底前将经销商网络扩展至多达300家。根据巴黎咨询公司Inovev的数据，中国汽车在德国的销量在2025年增长一倍多后，今年继续激增。Stefan Bratzel, director of the Center of Automotive Management in Germany, invoked Frank Sinatra in explaining the importance of the country for Chinese car companies. The way they see it, “if you can make it there, you can make it anywhere.”德国汽车管理中心主任斯特凡·布拉策尔在解释德国对中国汽车公司的重要性时引用了弗兰克·辛纳屈的歌词——在他们看来，“如果你能在那里成功，就能在任何地方成功。”James Paton是《纽约时报》国际商业与经济记者，常驻伦敦。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。