Crude Oil (CL) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Tue (Oct 13)Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX:CL1!MyAlgoIndexBias: The November crude contract settled Monday at 93.74, up 1.89 or 2.06 percent. The session traded between 94.36 and 89.61, a 4.75 point daily range and an outside day against Friday. The settle finished 86.9 percent of the way up from the low. Those extremes are the completed-session inputs behind the published pivot ladder, and they match the chart's daily bar. The range was the widest for the November contract since 10/02, and the settle the highest since 09/24. Provider commentary said crude settled sharply higher amid threats to global energy supplies after Houthi drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia over the weekend and stepped-up Iranian attacks on vessels, while the dollar's rally weighed on the gain. The news feed carried at 2:14 PM ET a coalition statement that a ballistic missile fired towards Riyadh was destroyed, at 3:02 PM ET a British navy report that a crude tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in Hormuz, and at 3:03 PM ET a Houthi claim of an attack on Riyadh's airport. Brent's December contract rose 1.93 to 106.65, widening its premium over WTI to 12.91, and November settled 88 cents above December. The November heating oil contract slipped to 4.7232 while the news feed carried Russian statements at 2:26 PM ET that more diesel can reach global markets, so both product margins narrowed. The dollar index stood at 102.59 as of 6:26 PM ET, and the ten-year yield index was unchanged at 5.24 percent with the cash Treasury market closed for Columbus Day, per the desk note. The settle sits above the 5-day, 9-day and 20-day settlement averages, positive direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems, and the composite multi-indicator read rose to 72 percent buy with direction strongest. In this review's interpretation the bias is constructive while the contract holds above the 92.53 to 92.57 support band, with Gulf and Hormuz headlines the main risk to that view in both directions. In this review's interpretation the first-order scheduled item on Tuesday is the producer group's monthly report at 8:00 AM ET, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed, set against unscheduled supply headlines. Resistance: - 100.28 Pivot R3 - 97.44 three standard deviations resistance - 97.32 Pivot R2 - 96.76 two standard deviations resistance - 96.02 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week high - 95.88 one standard deviation resistance - 95.53 Pivot R1 - 94.91 published target price - 94.36 Monday's session high - 94.28 50 percent retracement of the four-week range Support: - 92.57 Pivot Point - 92.53 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low - 92.17 Friday's session high - 91.69 18-day average crossing price for Tuesday - 91.60 one standard deviation support - 91.03 9-day average crossing price for Tuesday - 90.78 Pivot S1 - 90.72 two standard deviations support - 89.61 Monday's session low - 87.82 Pivot S2 Primary Setup: LONG the November contract from the 92.50 to 92.80 band around the Pivot Point at 92.57 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low at 92.53, stop 91.50 beneath one standard deviation support at 91.60. Targets at 93.80 first, 6 cents above Monday's 93.74 settle, 94.95 second, 4 cents above the 94.91 published target price, and 96.10 third, 8 cents above the 96.02 retracement from the four-week high. Risk to reward is roughly 1:1 to the first objective, 1:2 to the second and 1:3 to the third from the entry midpoint. The 14-day average true range is 4.03 points against a 1.15 point stop distance. A settle beneath 91.60 negates the thesis; two consecutive 30-minute closes beneath the 18-day average crossing price at 91.69 remove the edge before the stop is reached. The settle sits above the entry band, so the setup needs a dip to engage. A calming of the Gulf headlines or more Russian product supply is the main risk to a long, which makes this an analyst judgment against live headline risk. The 93.74 settle sits at 86.9 percent of an outside-day range. In this review's interpretation Tuesday is a test of whether the 92.53 to 92.57 band holds as support, with one standard deviation support at 91.60 the line between a pullback and a return toward Pivot S1 at 90.78.