ETH - Week Prep, What I'm Looking For, EventsEthereum / US DollarCOINBASE:ETHUSDJSR44ETH gave back ~3% from today’s high after pushing to ~2,577 and dropping to 2,501. It’s now trading ~2,520 at time of posting, roughly flat on the day. Price is in a holding pattern. The higher lows from the bounce are still intact, but momentum has faded at resistance. Analysis After a ~7% recovery from the 2,405 low on Oct 8, today’s rejection fits the wider bearish move that started with the Oct 7–8 breakdown. It also confirms 2,550–2,580 as resistance: the top of the September base sits there, and today’s push stalled right inside it. The recovery came on light volume compared with the breakdown, which looks more like a relief bounce than new demand. Retail is leaning long, with ~73% of Binance accounts long and Bitfinex margin longs at a 4-year high, while funding stays neutral. If sellers maintain control, that crowded long side becomes fuel for shorts, with the prior lows as the path: 2,495, then 2,475, then the 2,405 flush low. What I’m looking for ETF flows are still negative, with nine straight outflow days and −$542.2M for the Oct 5–9 week. The daily amounts have shrunk for four sessions in a row, to −56.1M on Oct 9. On the chart, I’m watching whether the bearish momentum from Oct 7–8 resumes. That would mean a lower high forming under 2,560, then a pullback towards 2,480 to put the 2,450–2,480 support zone in play. A 4H close above 2,580 invalidates this movement. Events September CPI comes out Wednesday at 8:30 ET. Expectations are 0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y on headline, and 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y on core. Bull case: a softer print, especially core at or below 0.2%, plus a first ETF inflow day, eases pressure ahead of the Oct 27–28 FOMC. That opens a retest of the 2,550–2,580 resistance zone. Bear case: a hot core print plus a tenth outflow day firms up hike expectations and makes the 2,480 break more likely. Speculation The bounce’s higher lows are still intact, so I’m not calling the breakdown yet. If bearish momentum carries into Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI prints and ETF outflows continue, I’m looking for a move through the 2,450–2,480 support zone toward the 2,405 flush low, with 2,355–2,380 as the next support below. A 4H close above the 2,550–2,580 resistance band invalidates this view. Follow for Quick, Consistent and Concise ETH analysis Educational Content Only, Not Financial Advice