STRATEC: Down 83%, and the cash has come backSTRATEC SEXETR_DLY:SBSwithout_worriesSYMBOL: XETR:SBS | Direction: LONG | Timeframe: 15-Day Published: October 2026 BD. bioMérieux. DiaSorin. Grifols. Hologic. Werfen. Quanterix. That is the customer list. STRATEC designs and builds the automated analyser systems, software and consumables those diagnostics companies sell under their own badges. Forty-five years of it, from Birkenfeld in Baden-Württemberg. You have probably never heard of them, and you have very likely had a blood sample processed by one of their machines. The shares peaked near €136 in 2021 and trade at €23.45. Earlier this year they reached a band that has mattered on this chart for more than twenty years, and stopped. On the above 15-day chart SBS has tested and reclaimed the €16 to €21 legacy band, resistance in 2007 and support ever since, while RSI breaks the descending channel that has contained it since 2020. Three reasons exist to be long, they include: 1) A €38 million swing in free cash flow. First-half free cash flow came in at €23.5m against negative €14.7m a year earlier. Net debt fell to €96.7m. Margins turned with it: the adjusted EBIT margin went from 5.4% in the first quarter to 11.9% in the second. Revenue has not yet recovered, but the cash has, and cash tends to move first. A capital goods business that stops consuming working capital has passed its trough whether or not the revenue line has noticed. 2) The right segment is growing. Systems revenue rose 15.4% at constant currency to €39.7m on immunoassay, molecular diagnostics and immunohematology demand. Service parts and consumables fell 11.9%, which reads badly until you note the cause: customers optimising inventory after merger activity. Instrument placements are the leading indicator in this industry. Every analyser installed today pulls consumable revenue behind it for a decade. The segment that signals the future is accelerating. The one falling is working through a warehouse. 3) The customers cannot easily leave. An OEM analyser is co-developed, validated and registered with regulators as part of the partner’s own product. Changing supplier means redesigning the instrument and re-certifying the diagnostic. Nobody does that to save a few points on a bill of materials. That is why management can credibly guide to a 13% adjusted EBIT margin by 2028 and a return to the pre-pandemic 15% by 2030, from roughly 10% today, on 6% to 8% annual revenue growth. The operating leverage is in the contracts, not in a forecast spreadsheet. One caveat worth acknowledging The full-year guidance is extravagantly back-end loaded. Management expects the fourth quarter to deliver 34% to 35% of annual revenue, against a normal range of 30% to 33%, and says growth will come almost exclusively from year-end business resting on current customer order forecasts. First-half sales still fell 3.3% at constant currency. So the entire 2026 outcome hinges on orders landing in a single quarter, from a concentrated group of large customers, in an industry that has spent two years adjusting its inventory. If those orders slip a quarter, the guidance goes with them. That is the risk, and it resolves within weeks rather than years. Resistances 1st resistance: €28. The 2025 reaction high. 2nd resistance: €36. The 2024 consolidation shelf. 3rd resistance: €48. The 2023 breakdown zone. A 15-day close back below €16 returns price beneath the legacy band and cancels the thesis. The crowd STRATEC was a pandemic stock without ever being a pandemic story. Diagnostics ran hot, the multiple followed, and when testing volumes normalised the shares were sold by people who had never understood what the company actually did. Five years later it is a German small cap with no narrative, no retail following and no reason for anyone to mention it at a dinner party (do folks still do that?), which is roughly the condition in which a supplier to the entire diagnostics industry becomes interesting. Twenty years of chart history says this band matters. The cash flow says the trough has passed. Look left. Is this time different? Good luck. Ww Type: Fundamental long / European small cap | Timeframe: 12–24 months ** Special notice for US Investor / US Dollar holders ** Naturally this is a EU stock that requires the sale of dollars to Euro in order for you to make a purchase. For you this idea is especially bullish. Why? The dollar is about to lose a considerable amount of dominance against the Euro over the next 2-3 years. Hold a bullish European stock at the same time the dollar collapses creates a double sized return when converting back to dollars at the end of the trade. These opportunities only occur once perhaps twice in your working life, plan for it! ===================================================== Disclaimer: This idea is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Levels described are observations of chart structure, not price objectives. STRATEC SE operates an OEM model with a concentrated customer base, carries net debt of €96.7m, and its 2026 guidance depends on order conversion weighted heavily to the fourth quarter. Financial figures are taken from the Company’s half year results published 14 August 2026 and predate any third quarter update. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.