By Thierry Deronne – Sep 18, 2026At the end of August, Venezuela signed a major oil agreement with the United States. President Trump—widely known as a thief, liar and braggart, whether concerning Venezuela or Iran—boasts about the deal, but its reality is hard to grasp at first glance. It is necessary to separate truth from falsehood, and media narrative from reality, in the statements by Trump and Rubio.As early as 2025, the United States had informed Venezuela’s Chavista leadership that the US strike force massed in the Caribbean allowed it to bomb the whole country. One option was to resist without having the military means of countries like Iran and without real support from the “multipolar world.” The other option was to resist differently, avoiding collective immolation and the definitive destruction of the Bolivarian Revolution. After so many nights of no return (Chile in 1973, Panama in 1989, etc.), the Chavistas refused to immolate themselves.To the great disappointment of the Global North left, they refused to “die for the revolution” and decided to “live to make it.” The priority was to preserve the life of the people and the political peace recovered in 2017, when Venezuela overcame a wave of guarimbas [fascist violence] that had left more than 80 dead. Delcy Rodríguez remains faithful to the Bolivarian Revolution, but she is engaged in a delicate, existential negotiation for Venezuela’s future with a gun to her head. We must keep a lucid mind and understand that Venezuela is trying to navigate an asymmetrical balance of forces against a bloodthirsty enemy determined to impose its domination over the entire Western Hemisphere.Donald Trump today boasts of “rebuilding US oil reserves with Venezuelan oil.” If his supporters can believe this claim, reality is quite different. A major component of the new agreement concerns a US $100 billion investment allowing the US company Blue Energy Partners to raise production across three to 17 yet-untapped oil fields. However, building infrastructure to allow extraction and refining is a long-term operation that will not fill US petroleum reserves in the immediate future. US estimates—forecasting the extraction of 65 billion barrels over a 25-year period—are contradicted by engineering realities; what is technically feasible for private companies corresponds to about 20% of that figure (roughly 17 billion barrels), while respecting the Constitutional state ownership of these resources. In any event, these projects are seen by workers and unions in the oil sector as an advance toward recovering or even exceeding previous production levels of a state oil company heavily damaged by the US blockade.“What use is it to keep untapped oil fields beneath our feet when we need to live, to get out of the blockade, to refill state coffers, to rebuild our hospitals, to repair our schools and the housing of families stroke by the earthquake, our electrical system, and finally to raise wages?” The long and difficult negotiation with the United States led by the Bolivarian government explains the popularity of Delcy Rodríguez (1). Workers, unions, the support base of the PSUV (the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, the main Chavista party), the Bolivarian National Armed Force, communal neighborhoods, and a large part of the population support the desire to rebuild the means of social welfare, even if they trust imperialism no more than any Latin American people would.Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution has used oil revenues to invest in other sectors and diversify its economy. Oil constituted the “goose that laid the golden eggs” to finance Hugo Chávez’s programs, the reduction of extreme poverty and illiteracy, and free access to health care and education. The presence of US oil companies in Venezuela is not unprecedented; Chevron maintained activities in the country under the mandates of Chávez, of Maduro, and now of Rodríguez. Nicolás Maduro had pursued this policy since the anti-blockade law of 2020 and reiterated it to Ignacio Ramonet a few days before his abduction: “If the United States wants Venezuelan oil, Venezuela is ready to welcome US investments, as was the case with Chevron; we can talk whenever and wherever they want.” (2)During the weekly videoconference bringing together international trade unionists on September 4, Jorge Arreaza, deputy to the National Assembly and responsible for the National University of the Communes, explained how this agreement follows the line of positions held for years by President Chávez. “Even on his hospital bed in 2013, El Comandante said: ‘we must increase oil production, we must sell to the United States.'” Francisco Torrealba, also a deputy to the National Assembly and former president of the Venezuelan transport workers’ union, added that this agreement “allows the achievement of concrete results that will benefit the working class, improve our telecommunications sector, and provide funds to modernize our national electricity infrastructure, as well as our hospital and care services.”A poll carried out on September 7 by the private Venezuelan firm Hinterlaces revealed that 82% of Venezuelans support this agreement (1). Acting President Delcy Rodríguez explained that the agreement could generate US $200 billion in tax revenues for Venezuela over a 25-year period. Aiming for an increase of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), this oil agreement would more than double current production.In 20 of the 60 years since 1965, Venezuela produced more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd). Production had not fallen below 2.5 million bpd since 1993—until 2014. It was then that the Obama administration imposed sanctions that were tightened year after year. The result: a loss in revenue exceeding US $200 billion, equivalent to 213% of Venezuela’s GDP, the destruction of the legal wage that Chávez had made the highest on the continent, and the disintegration of public services and the departure of their personnel in a massive economic migration. Families separated, businesses closed, capital flight… a situation with no equivalent in the country’s history.In 2020, the pandemic year, the Venezuelan economy represented only a quarter of what it was in 2012 under Chávez. Three-quarters less production of goods and services; three-quarters less for wages, worker benefits, incomes and public budgets for education, health and social programs in general. The squeeze was so severe that it also hit the private sector. In theory, the private sector was not targeted by sanctions, but in practice, many essential commercial operations—such as bank transactions abroad and importing inputs, goods, and raw materials needed by the ordinary Venezuelan economy—were blocked or partially blocked. The US imposed 1,089 sanctions against Venezuela, the government, the president, ministries, and public companies but also against foreign companies; Chinese and Russian companies were thus sanctioned for maintaining economic relations with Venezuela.No one can guarantee that the current negotiation will not be betrayed by the aggressor. With imperialism, it is impossible to know with certainty. The Obama and Trump administrations both supported private economic powers in their practices of stock withholding and abusive price speculation, while fueling far-right trouble and violence, encouraging self-proclaimed presidents and supporting assassination attempts. All these attempts—aiming either to impose “regime” change or to force the Venezuelan government to sit at the negotiating table to privatize its oil sector—failed.Faced with closure of the US market, Venezuela adapted by redirecting the bulk of its exports to China. After 2020, the country experienced a remarkable recovery, with economic growth that between 2022 and 2024 was among the highest in Latin America. This dynamic was abruptly halted in 2025 when the United States invaded the southern Caribbean, deploying 15,000 troops, hundreds of aircraft, and dozens of warships; they then carried out extrajudicial executions of fishermen and resorted to piracy, with US warships seizing tankers carrying Venezuelan crude bound for Cuba and China.Even as United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) reinforced its forces in preparation for a confrontation with Venezuela, President Maduro and the PSUV ensured that the population had access to democratic bodies allowing it to participate in its own defense and that of the revolution. This will to deepen the revolution translated into the creation of new communal councils, a restructuring of leadership ensuring gender parity, the integration of trade unions within the civil-military union, and a near-doubling of citizen militia ranks, now given military training. This level of preparedness has demonstrated to the world that a conventional invasion accompanied by a ground battle would be a tough undertaking for the United States. The latter therefore discarded that option, favoring instead the abduction of President Maduro and the First Lady Cilia Flores.After January 3, the United States did not withdraw its military forces. SOUTHCOM remained nearby and rapidly deployed 2,000 soldiers, officially to support earthquake relief operations. Recently, the United States carried out its 68th extrajudicial execution in the Caribbean, bringing the total death toll to 227.To date, no movement, national or international, has been powerful enough to force the United States to lift sanctions against Venezuela, to allow the country full access to its US $5 billion in assets at the IMF, or to oblige the Bank of England to return US $5 billion worth of Venezuelan gold. Negotiations occur under conditions where coercion—sanctions as well as the military threat—remains in force. The only thing that has changed is that the United States has begun issuing a series of licenses and administrative measures that do not lift sanctions but open a negotiating space for their possible return to Venezuela, a space the United States itself had excluded by its own sanctions policy.Paradoxically, the draconian and illegal mechanism established for oil export revenues defines for the first time that Venezuelan oil revenues are funds belonging to the Venezuelan government. That is important because as a consequence of the US and EU blockade, Venezuela has debts exceeding US $200 billion [according to Wall Street sources]. Some possibilities open up, but within a framework where aggression continues, sanctions remain in place and the rhetoric aims to make people believe that Venezuela has surrendered: “Now I control the largest reserves in the world, and now I lead the Venezuelan government”—this is the “diplomacy of humiliation.” The fact that Venezuela has finally managed to allow some currency to enter it is presented as if Venezuela were a kind of protectorate: “Here is the new colony.” Certainly, over the last 25 years, Venezuela has been a laboratory for testing instruments of commercial warfare, destabilization, and political war. However, we must also understand the nature of this moment, and this can only be explained from Venezuela’s own viewpoint.Some criticize Venezuela from afar, from the Global North, with a rage that perhaps allows them to forget their inability to make revolution or to curb the far right in their own countries. Individuals craving recognition have been served by the algorithms of the CIA-launched “Venezuela betrayal” campaign since the January 3 aggression. These behaviors describe the left of the Global North less than they describe Venezuela, where brand image, instantaneity, and “feelings” have replaced dialectical culture. Nothing can replace analysis of why Venezuela does what it does.Venezuelan Hydrocarbons Minister Paula Henao explains that the agreements concluded with China and Russia are guaranteed despite the new deal signed with the United States: “Thanks to the agreements with China and Russia, we have mixed companies holding valid authorizations to carry out primary activities in Venezuela’s energy sector. We scrupulously respect these agreements. Moreover, the agreement does not imply a transfer of the resources present in the country; the crude remains on Venezuelan soil, and the state retains ownership of the resources. The Constitution and the Organic Hydrocarbons Law guarantee inalienably that subsoil ownership belongs to the Republic.” (3)Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution had to adapt and absorb a very hard blow while managing to take advantage of an agreement consistent with its objectives and needs, both short and long term. The PSUV remains in power, and the Bolivarian Revolution continues its march of transferring power to the communes. The acting president supports construction of the communal economy as an alternative to capitalism (4). Trump and Rubio must go through the popular government to reach agreements. María Corina Machado and the far right are not in power. All this shows that the revolution retains popular support and the ability to overcome obstacles and be reborn.“I know this may sound strange,” explains Sandew Hira, a historian born in Suriname and living in the Netherlands, “but I believe the US attack—which did not offer the United States a strategic victory—can open the way to a strategic victory for the Bolivarian Revolution.” (5)The Chavista electoral victories were not overwhelming: they were generally decided by margins of five to 10 percent. The opposition’s main card was the threat of US intervention aimed at overthrowing the entire system. The attack did indeed take place, killing 48 Venezuelan fighters and 32 Cuban fighters and resulting in the abduction of the president and his wife. Yet the system survived. According to Trump’s propaganda, Washington controls Venezuela’s resources. For the Bolivarian government, the challenge will be to turn oil revenues into long-term economic benefits: reconstruction of public infrastructure, strengthening non-oil sectors, and creation of mechanisms ensuring that revenues benefit the entire population. A historic opportunity could open up: growing popular support for the Bolivarian Revolution. Contrary to the Marxist theory of class struggle, it is possible in certain circumstances to promote a revolution that places economic prosperity at the heart of its mission and thus opens the door to foreign investment for economic development, as China has shown.In four years, a new electoral cycle will take place. If the Chavistas manage to remain in power, they will be able to recover significantly from the tactical defeat of January 3. Moreover, the US do not control either the armed forces or the intelligence services, two crucial components of the state’s security structure. They will not accept the status quo. In the years to come, new confrontations with the United States will occur; they will be brutal and bloody. What form will they take? Will the Chavistas find a way to rebuild the movement after a tactical defeat and prepare for the next phase of confrontation with the United States?Under Military Threat: Rodriguez Secures Oil Revenue for VenezuelaThe international movement of solidarity with Venezuela also faces difficulties, particularly when it attempts to understand the situation in the country (6). Of course, we can express our disappointment with such or such a decision by Venezuela’s leadership. However, we should also ask: what alternative do we ourselves propose? In my view, that alternative will be built within the Bolivarian Movement. There are many intelligent people in this movement who are thinking about the next phase of confrontation with the United States and how to prepare for it. Sources: Venezuela’s Asymmetric Negotiation with the United States: A Conversation with William Castillo, by Cira Pascual Marquina; Under US military threat: President Rodriguez secures oil revenue for Venezuelan people by Jim Byrne and Bri Smith; and https://www.ciudadccs.info/publicacion/50063-werther-sandoval-acuerdos-petroleros-no-ceden-la-soberania-nacionalNotes(1) “Monitor País: 81% de los venezolanos prefiere que la presidenta (E) Delcy Rodríguez resuelva los problemas económicos del país,” https://www.hinterlaces.net/monitos-pais-81-de-los-venezolanos-prefiere-que-la-presidenta-e-delcy-rodriguez-resuelva-los-problemas-economicos-del-pais/ and https://x.com/Hinterlaces/status/2097792270414041326(2) “Nicolás Maduro : ‘Au peuple états-unien je dis: ici, au Venezuela, il a un peuple ami’. Interview by Ignacio Ramonet (December 31, 2025),” https://venezuelainfos.wordpress.com/2026/01/01/nicolas-maduro-au-peuple-etats-unien-je-dis-ici-au-venezuela-il-a-un-peuple-ami-interview-par-ignacio-ramonet-31-decembre-2025/(3) “Ministra de Hidrocarburos indicó que acuerdos con Rusia y China se mantendrán pese a convenio con EE. UU.” https://www.globovision.com/economia/61352/ministra-de-hidrocarburos-indico-que-acuerdos-con-rusia-y-china-se-mantendran-pese-a-convenio-con(4) “Delcy Rodríguez calls on the Venezuelan people to participate in the Popular Consultation on October 18,” https://www.laradiodelsur.com.ve/delcy-rodriguez-llama-al-pueblo-venezolano-a-participar-en-consulta-popular-el-18-o/(5) See https://www.sandewhira.com/index.php/about/ Sandew Hira is secretary of the Decolonial International Network (DIN) Foundation and director of the International Institute for Scientific Research (IISR), based in The Hague, Netherlands.(6) “Venezuela, the hour of the braziers and the hard times of internationalism,” by Cira Pascual Marquina, https://venezuelainfos.wordpress.com/2026/09/01/venezuela-lheure-des-brasiers-et-les-temps-difficiles-de-linternationalisme/ (Blog Venezuelainfos)Translation: Orinoco TribuneOT/JRE/SL