The National Football League (NFL) has requested that the US Supreme Court designate sports prediction agreements as gambling instead of financial derivatives. The classification could impact the way Kalshi and its competitors respond to federal agencies or state gambling authorities and, in turn, the growth of the industry.The league’s argument against calling them swapsAn amicus brief filed on Thursday shows that the NFL is backing petitioners from New Jersey in their quest to challenge the Third Circuit ruling that gave the Commodity Futures Trading Commission exclusive authority over all issues pertaining to sports contracts.According to the league, traditional swaps help mitigate existing financial risks. However, it is the sports contracts that generate risk exerted by the results of a sports game. The league expressed the opinion that it is a constitutional issue since there are conflicting decisions of different appeals courts involved in the process.The NFL looks for strict measures against manipulation, requires higher minimum ages, and demands communication with the league. The Supreme Court has not yet made a decision on whether to accept the case for consideration.Kalshi pushes back, and the leagues disagreeKalshi dismissed the NFL’s claims and argued in favor of federal regulation and integrity provisions that have already been established.Other sports leagues have welcomed prediction markets. Major League Baseball partnered with Polymarket, the National Hockey League struck deals with both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Major League Soccer signed an exclusive agreement with Polymarket.Expert in gaming law, Daniel Wallach, called the NFL’s intervention important as the move increases the likelihood of the Supreme Court taking up the case.What the trading data shows about exposureThe stakes become clearer in the trading figures. The NFL reported that $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded on the season’s opening Sunday involved its games.Artemis data showed $330.4 billion in year-to-date prediction-market volume as of October 8. Sports represented roughly 44%, followed by exotics at 32% and crypto at 15.1%.The total amount processed by Kalshi is $259.2 billion, with $107.6 billion from sports trading (41.5%). Polymarket, on the other hand, recorded $71.2 billion with a contribution of $37.9 billion from sports trading (53.2%). Thus, Kalshi’s total sports volume is significantly more than that of Polymarket, while Polymarket’s sports trading plays a larger role in the overall trading activities of the platform.According to Pew Research, the monthly combined trading of the two companies has increased dramatically, from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July. At the same time, Americans bet around $40 billion via licensed sportsbooks in the first quarter. The aforementioned amounts reflect the trading or bets rather than platform revenue.Prediction Market Trading Volume 2026: Kalshi vs Polymarket Sports ShareUS uncertainty against Europe’s clearer lineThe gap in regulation continues to exist. Brookings indicated that there is tension between federal derivatives regulation and state gambling legislation.The American Institute for Boys and Men has raised another problem about allowing those of 18 years old to take part in prediction markets despite the fact that all the sportsbooks require customers to be 21.Europe takes a different approach. ESMA says qualifying binary event contracts face existing retail restrictions and investment-firm authorization requirements.Why the growth story depends on the rulingCryptopolitan previously reported Bernstein’s projection that annual prediction-market volume could reach $10 trillion by 2035. Yet the firm expects US regulatory clarity no earlier than 2027–2028.State-level regulation could raise licensing costs, taxes, and compliance burdens, potentially weakening liquidity and slowing expansion.A sports-focused ruling would not automatically settle crypto or political contracts. Still, it could reshape investment decisions and global competition by shaping federal oversight.If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter.