Last year I posted this chart, predicting BTC would be under $40,000 today, so I thought it would be fair to post an update. Inflection Date Days Price Return High 11/30/13 1,127 Low 1/14/15 410 172 -85% High 12/16/17 1,067 19,665 +11,324% Low 12/17/18 366 3,217 -84% High 11/9/21 1,058 67,617 +2,002% Low 11/10/22 366 15,742 -77% High 10/7/25 1,062 124,774 +693% Low 10/8/26? 366? 37,400? -70%? Obviously I and all the other four year cyclers were wrong, and BTC is now more than double my prediction. I never believed in the halvening as some kind of structural driver, but I did think the cycle was a self fulfilling prophecy. Since this cycle was so different on the downside, I'd be very careful assuming a 3 year bull market is in the cards or that Bitcoin is destined to make another inflation adjusted all time high. I think the reasonable range of outcomes is now wider than ever, and the days of it being a bet with asymmetric upside are over.   submitted by   /u/MerkleChainsaw [link]   [comments]