The move in US natural gas prices back above $3/mmBtu over the past two weeks has reflected a significant tightening in the balance during September that was primarily weather driven. Going forward, however, barring a colder-than-average winter, we estimate that rising Permian gas production will help keep US winter balances comfortably supplied, and we maintain our bearish $2.95/$2.75/mmBtu Win26-27/Sum27 NYMEX natural gas price forecasts, vs forwards at $3.35/$2.95/mmBtu.September balances realized 1.2 Bcf/d tighter than we expected primarily driven by temperatures 2 standard-deviations hotter than average, supporting load and leading to a record power burn for this time of the year at 45.1 Bcf/d, 2.3 Bcf/d above our previous expectation. Although this beat in power was partly offset by a softer than expected balancing term - suggesting a potential overestimation of the record-breaking power burns - the net tightening of the balance contributed to salt storage drawing sharply into September.This matters because salt caverns are the storage facilities with the highest deliverability rates in the country, which is particularly important during very cold days in the winter. The September tightness in salt facilities supported prompt NYMEX gas prices back above $3/mmBtu for the first time since July. It also led to a sharp 17% rally in the Oct26-Jan27 spread. which typically prices very negatively when the market sees a high risk of end-summer storage congestion risks, into its expiration.