US100 1H: Can 30,600 Hold as Support?US Tech 100 Index CashFPMARKETS:US100KR_TradeCraftThe Nasdaq 100 (US100) has been climbing in steps since July: build a range, break out, build a new range higher, break out again. Price is now pulling back into the top of the last range. That is the test that decides whether the next step up comes. STRUCTURE - Range 1 (mid-August to mid-September): 28,780-29,780. - Breakout in mid-September, then Range 2 (late September): 30,120-30,850. - Breakout above 30,850 in early October, to a high of about 31,390. - Higher lows since July: 27,090, 28,770, 30,120, and now about 30,590. - The pullback has made a lower high at 31,250 and dipped into 30,600-30,850, the old Range 2 top. Old resistance should now act as support if the uptrend is healthy. BULLISH SCENARIO - 30,600-30,850 holds, then a 1H close above 31,250 (the lower high). - Targets: 31,390 (the recent high), then about 31,600 (the height of Range 2 added to the breakout). - Invalidation: a 1H close below 30,600. BEARISH SCENARIO - A 1H close below 30,600 means the old range top failed as support. - Price likely rotates back into Range 2. Targets: 30,350, then 30,120 (Range 2 bottom). - Invalidation: back above 30,850. HOW I WOULD MANAGE IT - No chasing in the middle. The edges are 30,600 below and 31,250 above. - Long only after strength is confirmed above 31,250, or on a clear bounce from 30,600-30,850 with a tight stop below 30,600. - At 31,390: take partial profit and move the stop to breakeven. WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND - A fast drop through 30,600 on strong volume would break the higher-low sequence and the staircase pattern. - A push above 31,250 that falls straight back below it would be a failed breakout and a warning sign. Key levels: 30,120 | 30,350 | 30,600 | 30,850 | 31,250 | 31,390 | 31,600 This is my own analysis for educational purposes, not financial advice. Manage your risk.