黄瑞黎2026年10月8日去年在慕尼黑车展上，中国最大电动汽车制造商比亚迪的一款汽车。 Felix Schmitt for The New York TimesTo understand Europe’s growing alarm over its trade deficit with China, consider a striking statistic: China now sends six containers of goods to Europe for every one it gets back.要理解欧洲对中欧贸易逆差日益加剧的担忧，可以看看这样一个惊人的统计数据：如今中国每从欧洲运回一个集装箱，就向欧洲运出六个集装箱。That ratio has more than doubled in China’s favor over the last five years as Beijing’s drive for greater economic self-reliance has expanded the range of goods China produces at home instead of buying from abroad.过去五年，这一比例已翻了一倍多，愈发向中国倾斜，因为北京推动经济更加自力更生，扩大了中国国内生产、而非从国外采购的商品种类。Jens Eskelund, president of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, cited those figures last month and provided a simple explanation for why.中国欧盟商会主席彦辞(Jens Eskelund)上个月引用了这些数据，并对其中的原因给出了一个简单的解释。“China makes everything,” he said.“中国什么都制造，”他说。That is the dilemma confronting Europe as its trade deficit with China exceeds $1 billion a day. European consumers and companies still want, and in many cases need, what Chinese factories produce. Increasingly, the reverse is not true.这正是欧洲所面临的困境，其对华贸易逆差每天超过10亿美元。欧洲的消费者和企业仍然想要，并且在许多情况下需要中国工厂生产的产品。但中方的情况却越来非如此。“The Chinese are basically succeeding in self-reliance,” said Joerg Wuttke, a partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, a Washington-based consultancy, and a former president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. “What else do they want from us? They are producing everything in excess. And they are competitive left, right and center because of scale.”“中国人基本上已经实现了自力更生，”总部位于华盛顿的咨询公司DGA-奥尔布赖特石桥集团的合伙人、中国欧盟商会前主席伍德克(Joerg Wuttke)表示。“他们还想从我们这里得到什么呢？他们生产的一切都过剩。而且由于规模效应，他们在各个方面都极具竞争力。”For years, Beijing has pursued self-reliance partly as insurance against the possibility that tensions with the West could expose economic weak points. Over the past decade, China has poured resources into industries and technologies intended to reduce its dependence on foreign suppliers.多年来，北京一直追求自力更生，部分原因是作为一种保险，以防与西方关系紧张可能暴露自身经济弱点。在过去的十年里，中国向旨在减少对外国供应商依赖的产业和技术倾注了大量资源。The result is a trade relationship that has become more lopsided than the headline figures suggest. Falling prices in China mean that trade measured by value understates the sheer volume of Chinese goods entering Europe and the industrial overcapacity at the center of the trade dispute.其结果是，中欧贸易关系变得比总体数据所显示的更加失衡。中国国内价格的下跌意味着，以价值衡量的贸易额低估了进入欧洲的中国商品的巨大数量，以及处于这场贸易争端核心的工业产能过剩问题。Mr. Eskelund has identified some of what those containers coming from China are carrying — household appliances, electronics, machinery, furniture, chemicals and textiles.彦辞列出了那些来自中国的集装箱里装载的一些物品——家用电器、电子产品、机械设备、家具、化学品和纺织品。2010年之前，中欧之间的贸易更加平衡，中国主要供应消费品，而欧洲则主要出口机械和汽车等奢侈品。It was not always this way.情况并非一直如此。In the years after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, its economic relationship with Europe was more complementary.在2001年中国加入世界贸易组织之后的几年里，中国与欧洲的经济关系更具互补性。While China supplied Europe with the affordable consumer goods that kept many Europeans happy, Europe sold China industrial machinery, luxury goods and high-end automobiles for a rising middle class.中国向欧洲提供许多让欧洲人满意且价格实惠的消费品，而欧洲则向中国日益壮大的中产阶级销售工业机械、奢侈品和高端汽车。The relationship began to change as Chinese manufacturing became more sophisticated and moved up the industrial ladder.随着中国制造业变得更加成熟，向产业阶梯的更高层攀升，这种关系开始发生变化。Chinese production of solar panels, aluminum and steel surged, pushing down global prices and battering European producers. At first, many Europeans regarded the fallout as confined to a few industries. China, meanwhile, remained an enticing growth market for European companies.中国太阳能电池板和钢铝方面的产量激增压低了全球价格，打击了欧洲生产商。起初，许多欧洲人认为这种负面影响仅局限于少数几个行业。与此同时，中国对欧洲企业而言仍是一个极具吸引力的增长市场。Then, China stepped on the gas.随后，中国开始加速推进。In 2015, Beijing issued an industrial strategy called “Made in China 2025.” It set out China’s ambitions to dominate advanced manufacturing, targeting sectors including robotics, electric vehicles and green technology. One result was enormous amounts of state-backed funding directed toward favored industries.2015年，北京发布了一项名为“中国制造2025”的工业战略。该战略阐明了中国主导先进制造业的雄心，目标涵盖机器人、电动汽车和绿色技术等领域。其结果之一是，大量由国家支持的资金被投入到这些优先发展的行业当中。“Everyone still kind of reassured themselves that China could do the lower-value-add part of everything and that they would retain the higher-value part,” said Agatha Kratz, a partner who specializes in E.U.-China relations at Rhodium Group, a research firm.“当时大家还在自我安慰，认为中国只能负责所有产品中附加值较低的部分，而他们自己将保留附加值较高的部分，”研究公司荣鼎咨询专门研究欧中关系的合伙人阿加莎·克拉茨表示。Even as Europe remained broadly open to Chinese exports, European companies faced barriers inside China.尽管欧洲基本上对中国出口保持开放，但欧洲企业在中国却面临壁垒。“As an ambassador there, I was tired of asking the Chinese to let our companies do the same things in China that their companies did in Spain,” said Rafael Dezcallar Mazarredo, who served as the Spanish ambassador to China for six years until 2024. “They nodded politely, and they did nothing.”“作为驻华大使，我厌倦了不断要求中方允许我们的企业在中国的经营活动，与中企在西班牙的经营活动享有同等权利，”曾担任西班牙驻华大使六年，直至2024年的拉斐尔·德斯卡利亚尔·马萨雷多说。“他们礼貌地点头，然后什么也不做。”中国已将机器人产业列为战略性产业，旨在发展国内制造业，减少对外国技术的依赖。Under Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, the country expanded its industrial aspirations. Beijing promoted a strategy called “Little Giants,” unleashing small and medium-size enterprises to build technology and address vulnerabilities in domestic supply chains. Another strategy paired greater economic self-reliance at home with continued access to foreign markets for Chinese exports.在中国最高领导人习近平的领导下，中国扩大了其工业抱负。北京推行了一项被称为“小巨人”的战略，放开中小企业来发展技术，并解决国内供应链的薄弱环节。另一项战略则是将国内经济自给自足与保持中国出口产品进入外国市场的渠道相结合。To many European analysts, the direction was clear.对许多欧洲分析人士来说，这一方向很明确。“It’s out-Germanying Germany,” said Andrew Small, director of the Asia program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.“这简直比德国还要德国，”欧洲外交关系委员会亚洲项目主任安德鲁·斯莫尔表示。Few industries illustrate the transformation more clearly than automobiles.很少有行业能比汽车业更能清晰地说明这种转变。The Chinese government funneled at least $231 billion to the car sector from 2009 to 2023, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which described the figure as “a conservative estimate.”根据战略与国际问题研究中心的数据，2009年至2023年间，中国政府向汽车行业注入了至少2310亿美元，该机构将这一数字描述为“保守估计”。More than 200 domestic electric vehicle manufacturers appeared in the Chinese market. The resulting production boom eventually exceeded China’s own demand, causing a brutal price war and pushing brands to look abroad for growth.中国市场涌现出200多家本土电动汽车制造商。由此产生的生产热潮最终超过了中国自身的需求，引发了激烈的价格战，并迫使各品牌将目光投向海外以寻求增长。By 2023, some of Germany’s biggest automakers — nearly all of them with significant operations in China — were issuing profit warnings. Around the same time, China’s E.V. makers started expanding into Europe.到了2023年，一些德国最大的汽车制造商——它们几乎都在中国拥有重要业务——纷纷发布盈利预警。大约在同一时间，中国的电动汽车制造商开始向欧洲扩张。When the European Union imposed additional tariffs on electric vehicles, Chinese carmakers increased exports of hybrid cars, which now make up a large share of China’s exports to Europe.当欧盟对电动汽车加征关税时，中国汽车制造商增加了混合动力汽车的出口，这类车型目前已占中国对欧出口的很大份额。2023年，合肥一家电动汽车工厂的生产线。When German media reported last month that Volkswagen would close four major plants in Germany, the announcement marked a turning point. German automakers had long been among the strongest opponents of measures that might provoke Beijing, urging restraint against tougher European trade policies.上个月，德国媒体报道称大众汽车将关闭其在德国的四家主要工厂，这一消息标志着一个转折点。长期以来，德国汽车制造商一直是最强烈反对可能激怒北京措施的群体之一，他们敦促欧洲在贸易政策上保持克制，避免采取更严厉的措施。Now, the German automotive industry association said it supported tariffs, opening the door for Germany to adopt a harder stance against China.如今，德国汽车工业协会表示支持加征关税，这为德国对中国采取更强硬立场打开了大门。A decade ago, Mr. Eskelund said, “China made the pie bigger for everyone.” Now it’s taking market share in Europe at a time when European companies in China face a slower economy and fierce domestic competition.彦辞说，十年前，“中国把所有人的蛋糕都做大了”。而现在，正当欧洲企业在中国面临经济增速放缓和国内竞争加剧之际，中国却在夺走欧洲的市场份额。Mr. Dezcallar, the former Spanish ambassador, said Europe still had some leverage over China because of its market of 500 million high-spending consumers. Beijing also has reason to avoid letting its economic relationship with Europe deteriorate to the level of its feud with the United States.前西班牙大使德斯卡利亚尔表示，凭借其5亿高消费能力消费者市场，欧洲对中国仍握有一定筹码。北京也有理由避免让与欧洲的经济关系恶化到与美国争端那样的程度。“It is not in their interest,” he said, “to have two open fronts at the same time."“同时开启两条战线并不符合他们的利益，”他说。黄瑞黎(Sui-Lee Wee)是《纽约时报》亚洲商业记者。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。