Trading Plan and Analysis - #XAUUSD 08/10/2026GoldOANDA:XAUUSDfntradinglabH1 Timeframe Yesterday’s FOMC Minutes confirmed that all members supported September’s rate hike, and showed that Fed officials expect at least one more rate hike as “appropriate by year’s end.” The reaction was significant: gold hit a fresh two-month low of 4,066 before recovering to close near 4,115, as Treasury yields erased some gains and turned slightly negative after the release. The chart confirms this — the H1 timeframe shows a sharp breakdown through the 4,103 - 4,110 support zone that had been holding for several sessions, followed by a recovery candle that has now brought price back to 4,137. Two H1 CHOCH signals on the right side of the chart suggest buyers stepped in at the low, but the broader structure — the large H1 OB at 4,182 - 4,230 sitting far above — means the overall bias is still clearly bearish. Price is recovering inside a downtrend, not reversing it. The FOMC Minutes showed the Fed is divided: some members see the September hike as the beginning of a tightening cycle aimed at curbing spending and investment, while others view it as a precautionary move. For gold, the key takeaway is that December is now the meeting to watch. Receding October hike bets have offered some support, but with yields still at multi-decade highs and the Fed clearly signaling more tightening ahead, any recovery remains capped. Today brings Initial Jobless Claims, another data point that could shift rate expectations if it surprises significantly. On the H1 chart, price is currently bouncing in what looks like a corrective recovery after the extended move lower. The reclaimed 4,125 - 4,140 zone is acting as a temporary base, with the next meaningful test being whether price can reach and hold above 4,150 - 4,155 — the base of the sideways range that held for several sessions last week. From a short-term technical view, gold remains a sell-on-bounce trade, and nothing in yesterday’s price action changes that read. My view stays cautiously bearish. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, and the FOMC Minutes confirming further tightening ahead reinforces the structural ceiling on recoveries. 🔴 SELL SCENARIO (primary) Zone to watch: 4,150 - 4,165 (base of last week’s range / previous structure) Confirms if: price is rejected here with a bearish CHOCH on M15/H1 Invalidates if: H1 close above 4,175 🔴 SELL SCENARIO (higher probability, larger target) Zone to watch: 4,182 - 4,210 (H1 OB) Confirms if: a stronger relief rally reaches this zone and gets rejected Invalidates if: clean H1 hold above 4,215 🟢 BUY SCENARIO (counter-trend) Zone to watch: 4,066 - 4,080 (yesterday’s low and two-month low zone) Confirms if: sweep of this low followed by sharp reclaim and bullish M15 CHOCH Invalidates if: clean close below 4,060 On key levels, near resistance sits at 4,150 - 4,165, further resistance at 4,182 - 4,210. Near support is 4,103 - 4,110, and the critical line that would accelerate selling is a clean break and hold below 4,066 — the two-month low printed yesterday. A sustained break below the 4,100 level could drag gold toward the year-to-date lows in the 4,000 - 3,950 zone. Today’s suggested play: favor selling rallies into 4,150 - 4,165 rather than chasing the current bounce. Initial Jobless Claims today could add volatility — a worse-than-expected number would ease rate-hike bets and temporarily support gold, while a strong read would reinforce the bearish macro picture. Either way, wait for confirmed rejection at resistance before entering a short. This reflects a personal view and technical read from FN Trading Lab based on current market structure, not financial advice or a specific buy/sell recommendation. Please watch price reaction at the levels mentioned and make your own decisions in line with your own strategy.