KEITH BRADSHER2026年10月8日去年，广州一处服装制造区的工人们。 Qilai Shen for The New York TimesChina has kept its export engine roaring with a combination of tax rebates and a weak currency, helping sustain economic growth at home while sending a surge of Chinese goods into markets abroad.中国借助出口退税与货币疲软的双重策略维持了其出口引擎的强劲运转，在支撑国内经济增长的同时，也将大量中国商品推入海外市场。But that strategy is fueling tension with its trading partners. And this week, officials from Brussels arriving in Beijing are preparing to press Chinese officials about a European trade deficit with China that exceeds $1.1 billion a day.但这一策略正加剧中国与其贸易伙伴的紧张关系。本周，前往北京的布鲁塞尔官员准备就欧洲对华每日逾11亿美元的贸易逆差问题向中国官员施压。Europe’s leaders say China tilts the scale with government subsidies and low-interest loans to its manufacturers, flooding European markets with inexpensive goods.欧洲领导人表示，中国的政府补贴以及向制造商提供低息贷款破坏了公平竞争，使廉价商品充斥欧洲市场。But subsidies are only part of the advantage Chinese exporters enjoy. The renminbi, China’s currency, remains unusually weak, making China’s goods cheaper overseas. At the same time, Beijing refunds exporters hundreds of billions of dollars a year in taxes, further lowering their costs.但补贴并非中国出口商的全部优势。中国货币人民币持续异常疲软，使中国商品在海外更具价格竞争力。与此同时，北京每年向出口商退还数千亿美元税款，进一步压低了他们的成本。Both policies have become difficult for China to unwind.如今，两项政策中国都很难轻易撤回。The renminbi is down more than 14 percent in inflation-adjusted terms from its early-2022 level against a broad set of currencies. Over roughly the same period, China’s trade surplus has nearly doubled. While the weak currency helps exporters, it also makes foreign goods more costly for Chinese consumers and businesses.经通胀调整后，人民币兑一揽子货币的汇率较2022年初水平下跌逾14%。在几乎同一时期，中国的贸易顺差接近翻番。疲软的货币在提振出口的同时，也使得外国商品对中国消费者和企业而言变得更加昂贵。China’s export tax rebates have also surged. Rebates to export companies for value-added taxes reached $318.2 billion last year, equivalent to 1.5 percent of China’s economy, according to data from the country’s Ministry of Finance.中国的出口退税规模同样大幅飙升。根据中国财政部的数据，去年向出口企业返还的增值税达到3182亿美元，相当于中国经济总量的1.5%。上海的购物者。疲软的人民币推高了消费者的生活成本，而向出口商提供的大额退税进一步消耗了因房地产低迷而受创的国家和地方政府财政。Together, the weak currency and extensive tax rebates capture the dilemma facing Chinese policymakers. Exports are one of the few bright spots in an economy weighed down by plunging apartment prices and weak consumer spending. Maintaining export momentum is important to Beijing’s goal of 4.5 percent to 5 percent economic growth. But supporting those exports carries high costs at home and abroad.货币疲软和大规模退税共同折射出中国决策者面临的困境。在因房价暴跌和消费者支出疲软而承压的经济大环境下，出口成为为数不多的亮点之一。维持出口势头对北京实现4.5%至5%的经济增长目标至关重要。但支持这些出口也在国内外带来了高昂代价。A weak renminbi raises the cost of oil and other imports, squeezing households already reluctant to spend. Export tax rebates drain government revenues when many local governments are struggling with the financial fallout from the housing downturn.疲软的人民币推高了石油及其他进口商品的成本，进一步挤压了本就不愿消费的家庭。在许多地方政府努力应对房地产低迷带来的财政冲击之际，出口退税又进一步消耗了政府收入。For China’s trading partners, Europe in particular, resentment has been building, prompting more protectionist policies.对于中国的贸易伙伴，特别是欧洲而言，不满情绪持续积聚，从而催生了更多的保护主义政策。“We need to rebalance our economic ties to ensure they are fair, sustainable and mutually beneficial — the current situation is unsustainable,” said Caspar Veldkamp, the European Union ambassador to China, in a speech on Sept. 22.“我们需要重新平衡双方的经济关系，以确保其公平、可持续且互利互惠——目前的状况是不可持续的，”欧盟驻华大使卡斯帕·费尔德坎普在9月22日的一场演讲中表示。With China on track to match or exceed last year’s record global trade surplus of $1.19 trillion, allowing the renminbi to strengthen and reducing tax rebates could ease some pressure from overseas. But either step could also damage one of the economy’s few remaining engines of growth.鉴于中国有望达到或超越去年1.19万亿美元的创纪录全球贸易顺差，允许人民币升值并削减退税可能会缓解部分来自海外的压力。然而，这两项举措中的任何一项也都有可能损害中国经济仅存的少数几个增长引擎之一。去年，中国向出口商支付了3180亿美元的退税，相当于该国国内生产总值的1.5%。Some prominent Chinese economists have begun arguing that a stronger currency may benefit China by lowering the cost of oil and other imports priced in dollars. China’s central bank and state-owned banks intervene heavily in currency markets to set the renminbi's value, although market forces also play a role.一些知名中国经济学家已开始提出，更为强劲的货币可能会通过降低以美元计价的石油等进口商品的成本而使中国受益。尽管市场力量同样发挥作用，中国央行及大型国有银行依然会大量干预货币市场以设定人民币汇率。“We need to reassess the issue of exchange rates: An appreciation of the renminbi is not necessarily entirely negative, while depreciation may not effectively boost exports,” said Shen Guobing, an economics professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, in a speech last December.“我们需要重新审视汇率问题：人民币升值并不全然是负面效应，贬值也未必能有效提振出口，”上海复旦大学经济学教授沈国兵在去年12月的一次发言中指出。Beijing has been cautious about allowing meaningful appreciation. Policymakers are well aware of Europe’s unhappiness, but remain wary that a rapid rise in the renminbi would slow the country’s vast export machine.在允许人民币大幅升值方面，北京一直持谨慎态度。决策者深知欧洲方面的不满，但依然警惕人民币的快速升值会拖累该国庞大的出口机器。The same caution applies to export tax rebates. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, they consumed about a tenth of tax revenue. Now, as exports surge while much of the domestic economy stagnates, they account for nearly one-eighth.同样的谨慎态度也体现在出口退税上。在新冠疫情爆发前，出口退税消耗了约十分之一的税收收入。如今，在出口激增而大部分国内经济陷入停滞的情况下，其占比已接近八分之一。China has announced plans to halt tax rebates for battery exporters next year. Some influential economists are urging the government to go much further.中国已宣布计划在明年停止对电池出口商的退税。一些具有影响力的经济学家正敦促政府采取更加深入的行动。“Export tax rebates, which are essentially a form of export subsidy, should be reduced,” said Huang Qifan, a former mayor of Chongqing and an influential Chinese economist, in a speech in May.“下调出口退税率相当于削减出口补贴，”前重庆市市长、颇具影响力的中国经济学家黄奇帆在5月的一场演讲中表示。The reasons for Beijing’s reluctance to jeopardize exports can be seen in Guangzhou, a metropolis in southern China’s Pearl River Delta and the heart of China’s garment export industry.在中国南方珠江三角洲的大都市、同时也是中国服装出口行业中心的广州，可以窥见北京不愿危及出口的原因。广州海珠区一家大部分空置的服装工厂，反映出当地纺织制造业的急剧衰退。On Haizhu Island, dozens of men and women loitered at an outdoor hiring area late one afternoon after waiting hours for anyone willing to pay them $45 to $60 for a day of sewing.在海珠区一个露天招工区域的傍晚，数十名男女闲坐着。他们已等待了数小时，希望能找到愿意支付45至60美元雇他们做一天缝纫工作的人。“Business has slowed down — the first half of the year was a little better, but things are really bad now,” said a worker at the hiring area who gave only his family name, Liu.“生意变淡了——今年上半年稍微好一点，但现在情况真的很糟，”招工区一名仅透露自己姓刘的工人说。China’s housing crash has crippled domestic demand for new clothes, while tariffs and competition from lower-wage countries have hurt exports. Day labor rates occasionally reached as high as $150 a few years ago, when exports and domestic demand were much stronger, said the owner of a sewing machine distributorship whose family name is Yi.中国房地产市场的崩盘严重打击了国内消费者对购置新衣的需求，而关税以及来自低工资国家的竞争则对出口造成了伤害。一名姓易的缝纫机经销店老板表示，在几年前出口和内需强劲得多的时候，日结工人的薪水偶尔能高达150美元。“Compared with previous years, our business is down by at least a third this year — you could even say it’s close to half,” he said.“与往年相比，今年我们的生意至少下滑了三分之一——甚至可以说接近减半，”他说。Such weakness helps explain why Beijing is reluctant to risk policies that could further undermine exports. Until 2022, the currency gradually strengthened in inflation-adjusted terms for many years, according to the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, which has tracked the renminbi’s weakness.这种疲软表现有助于解释为何北京不愿冒险采取可能进一步削弱出口的政策。根据追踪人民币疲软态势的瑞士巴塞尔国际清算银行的数据，在2022年之前，经通胀调整后的人民币汇率曾连续多年逐步走强。在广州的一个劳动力市场，带着服装样品的工厂老板们正在招募服装工人。That changed after a stringent Covid lockdown began in Shanghai in March 2022. Consumer confidence plunged to the lowest level in 36 years of government record-keeping, while companies and households sought to move savings out of China. The renminbi started a long decline that eventually took it down about 20 percent.这一情况在2022年3月上海实施严格的新冠封控后发生了改变。消费者信心暴跌至有政府记录36年来的最低水平，同时企业和家庭试图将储蓄转移出中国。人民币自此开启了长期的下跌，最终累计贬值约20%。The slide coincided with the collapse of China’s housing market. Prices for existing homes have fallen about 40 percent since the summer of 2021, eroding household savings and further weakening consumer spending.这一跌势与中国房地产市场的崩盘同步发生。自2021年夏季以来，现房价格下跌了约40%，侵蚀了家庭储蓄并进一步削弱了消费者支出。The renminbi has strengthened somewhat over the past 15 months, but it remains far below pre-Covid levels after adjusting for inflation.在过去15个月里，人民币汇率有所回升，但在经通胀调整后，依然远低于疫情前的水平。Currency movements can take time to alter decisions companies make about where they buy components and other supplies. American importers tend not to look for new suppliers unless a currency moves sharply against the dollar, said Joe Jurken, the managing director of ABC Group, a Milwaukee-based supply chain consultancy.货币波动往往需要一定时间才能改变企业在何处采购零部件和其他耗材的决策。总部位于密尔沃基的供应链咨询机构ABC集团董事总经理乔·尤肯表示，除非某种货币兑美元出现剧烈波动，否则美国进口商通常不会去寻找新的供应商。“A 15 percent appreciation would open up eyes and start some discussions,” he said.“15%的升值幅度才会有人正眼看待，开始讨论对策，”他说。A weak currency is not the only reason for China’s export strength. Chinese companies have become formidable competitors through innovation in sectors such as batteries, electric vehicles and solar panels. Fierce domestic competition has also pushed manufacturers to cut costs and prices.货币疲软并非中国出口强劲的唯一原因。凭借在电池、电动汽车和太阳能电池板等领域的创新，中国企业已成为极具实力的竞争对手。激烈的国内竞争也迫使制造商不断压低成本和价格。But some economists argue that those low prices also reflect weaknesses in the domestic economy, including pressure on wages and corporate profits.但部分经济学家指出，这些低廉的价格同样反映了国内经济的疲软，包括在工资和企业利润方面承受的压力。今年的北京车展。除了疲软的货币之外，中国的出口驱动力还源于电动汽车、电池和太阳能技术的创新，以及国内无情的成本削减。“The high quality and low price of Chinese goods is a global triumph, but it is built on the suppressed wages and squeezed margins of Chinese workers and enterprises,” wrote Zhao Jian, the founding dean of the Xijing Research Institute, a commercial research foundation, in a commentary on Sept. 22 in Caixin, a Chinese business publication.“中国商品物美价廉是一场全球性的胜利，但这是建立在中国工人和企业被压抑的工资和被挤压的利润空间之上的，”商业研究机构西京研究院创始院长赵建在9月22日发表于中国商业出版物《财新》的一篇评论文章中写道。Bert Hofman, a former China country director for the World Bank, said reducing tax rebates might have a bigger impact than allowing the renminbi to appreciate in terms of freeing up government revenue for domestic priorities.前世界银行中国局局长郝福满(Bert Hofman)表示，就腾出政府资金用于国内优先事项而言，减少退税可能比允许人民币升值产生更大的影响。“China benefits by increasing revenues, which they can use to increase government spending on health and education,” he said.“中国能通过增加财政收入获益，他们可以利用这些收入来提升政府在医疗和教育领域的支出，”他说。Ruoxin Zhang对本文有研究贡献。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。