Trump’s Russian diesel deal: One rule for India, another for the US

Wait 5 sec.

The US has repeatedly targeted India over its hefty purchases of Russian oil — from additional penal tariffs last year to a recent law empowering President Donald Trump to impose up to 100% tariffs on top buyers of Russian energy. The US administration has often argued that India is effectively funding Russia’s war in Ukraine by buying Moscow’s crude oil.But in a surprise shift in stance, Trump himself has announced a deal under which Russia will supply hundreds of thousands of tonnes to the US and global markets.The announcement may have been a surprise, but the reasoning is not. The US President is facing mounting pressure at home over soaring fuel prices — thanks to a war he himself started in West Asia — with the crucial midterm elections just weeks away.What’s more striking, however, is the apparent contradiction at the heart of his policy on energy and Russia: the US has punished countries for buying Russian energy but is now willing to accept it when its own economic interests demand it.This raises key questions: Are US policy and sanctions on Russian energy only intended to target other countries, specifically India? What happens to the American argument of limiting Russian revenue from energy sales?The newly announced deal strengthens India’s argument for prioritising its own energy security and strategic autonomy when faced with American pressure on the issue of Russian oil imports.From the point of view of the economy, diesel is a very important fuel. Besides being key for transportation, it powers long-haul trucks, agricultural machinery, construction equipment and other heavy industrial equipment — making it a politically sensitive subject. A jump in diesel prices, therefore, can quickly feed into consumer-level inflation.Story continues below this adIn recent weeks, diesel prices in the US and Europe have surged amid heavily constrained fuel movement through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as attacks on Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure. Diesel supplies are tight, inventories are low, and importers are scrambling to secure fuel from geographies not affected by conflict or chokepoint closures.The fuel’s prices in the US have reached record levels of about $6.5 per gallon, bringing the pain of faraway wars to the American consumer. With the midterms looming, the Trump administration appears desperate to convince voters about its efforts to reduce fuel prices.Trump had long been pressuring Europe to release its diesel stockpiles, and even warned that the US — a major diesel exporter itself — could ban diesel exports to shore up domestic supplies. Last week, the Group of Seven (G7) countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products from emergency reserves, including substantial volumes of diesel.Following the G7 decision, Trump reversed his position on restricting diesel exports. And on Friday, he announced the deal with Putin.Story continues below this adAccording to Trump, Russia will immediately supply the US and other countries with over 300,000 tons of diesel, another 500,000 tons in November, and one million tons immediately thereafter. He added that Russia would deliver another three million tons of diesel “within a short period of time” based on the condition of Russia’s diesel refineries.“Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority. This is a very big and important announcement,” the US President wrote on Truth Social.The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) subsequently issued a general licence, temporarily authorising transactions for the sale, delivery, offloading and import of Russian-origin diesel till April 7 next year.The deal, however, may not lead to a lasting reduction in fuel prices. Analysts and experts say the additional volumes announced are much lower than the diesel supply disrupted at the global level. While the announcement could ease immediate market anxiety, it is not a long-term solution to the underlying disruption in refinery operations and shipping.Story continues below this adIt also remains to be seen just how much of the announced Russian diesel supply actually flows into the market. While the OFAC general licence has removed a major US compliance barrier on Russian diesel, constraints like Russia’s restrictions on fuel exports, damage to its refineries by Ukrainian drone strikes, and tight availability of tankers still remain major concerns.Different rules for different countriesRussian oil is crucial for India, making up nearly half of its oil imports in August.This was not always the case. Much of the West began shunning Russian oil after its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, forcing it to cut prices — and prompting India to snap up these discounted volumes.In the months leading to the West Asia war, however, oil imports from Russia reduced notably as the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil. Negotiations towards a trade deal with the US, including scrapping its 25% additional penal tariff on India, were incumbent on New Delhi making a meaningful reduction in Russian oil imports.Story continues below this adIn February, India’s imports of Russian crude halved from its 2025 peak of over 2 million bpd. Even then, Russia was India’s largest source of crude in February, accounting for about a fifth of its total oil imports.But as the West Asia conflict squeezed supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, India’s Russian oil imports again surged. The US, too, issued sanctions waivers in an attempt to keep global markets adequately supplied.This came to a halt last month, when Trump signed into law the ‘Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026’. The law allows the US to impose up to 100% tariffs on countries, including India and China, that are buying Russian oil and gas. Crucially, this legislation empowers the US president to waive the application of its provisions — something India would almost certainly push for.Against this backdrop, Trump’s decision to facilitate Russian diesel imports into the US is drastically at odds with the rationale Washington has used thus far to target India.Story continues below this adThe newly announced deal would lead to revenue generation for Moscow, just as India’s crude oil purchases do. This is a key point India can now raise with the US in consultations on Russian oil imports and the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, and push Washington for waivers.A lot would depend on how the US views the matter. It could argue that a temporary licence for Russian diesel imports is justified by exceptional market conditions, and present it as a pragmatic response to an emergency rather than a departure from its general policy on Russia and the war in Ukraine.However, Washington will also have to explain why similar factors should not be considered when it comes to oil purchases by India, the world’s third-largest importer of crude with import dependency over 88%. If the US considers its own economic needs sufficient justification for importing Russian fuel, India can argue that its energy needs and costs should not be viewed differently, particularly given the current supply tightness and risks in the global energy market.