NEAR Protocol (NEAR) — Weekend and Early-Week Trading Outlook NEAR / Tether PERPETUAL FUTURESMEXC:NEARUSDT.Psean78808MARKET OUTLOOK: A STRONG SHORT-TERM RECOVERY NEAR has rebuilt a strong recovery from the $4.30 washout, established a higher low near $4.64 and regained the $5.00 area. The subsequent advance has already traded through the assessment’s $5.26 and $5.35 objectives. Those earlier breakout stages must therefore be treated as completed price movements, not fresh entry signals. They also do not establish that any particular trade was entered or filled. The next question is whether NEAR can establish durable support through 5.35–5.39 and open a further advance toward 5.49–5.60. A fresh defended pullback remains an alternative if the market offers better positioning. Note well: Entry discipline is increasingly important after an extended advance like that of NEAR since 10/8. THE BROADER TECHNICAL PICTURE IS CONSTRUCTIVE BUT UNEVEN Weekly: The recovery from the 2026 base remains substantial, with $5.60 an important nearby test. The current week is unfinished. Daily: The broader advance has recovered from a deep washout, although substantial overhead resistance remains. 4H: Price is rebounding within the wider range around 4.45–5.60; clearing nearby resistance does not remove the upper boundary. 48m: The higher low near $4.64 supports the recovery structure. 24m: Trend conditions strengthened considerably, but price became extended above its recent trading equilibrium. 6m and Below: Strong momentum favors waiting for a new defended retest rather than buying a mature impulse. Earlier flow readings warned that incremental buying was not confirming every new price high. Rebuilding aggregate open interest and positive funding supported renewed participation, while also increasing the importance of support holding. These are reasons to avoid chasing—not sufficient evidence for an automatic short. THE PRINCIPAL LEVELS | 5.49–5.60 | Major overhead supply and later recovery objectives | 5.35–5.39 | Current continuation/defense area | 5.29 | Earlier upper breakout threshold | 5.23–5.26 | Earlier breakout stage; 5.26 objective already traded | 5.17 | Prior auction boundary and conditional rejection threshold | 5.10–5.12 | Deeper pullback demand | 5.025 | First downside objective below 5.10 | 4.92–5.00 | Underlying balance and repair area | 4.64–4.70 | Larger higher-low support For the scenarios below, by CONFIRMATION, we mean: two consecutive completed 24-minute closes beyond the relevant threshold, followed by a separate completed 6-minute retest. Longs require a defended higher low; shorts require a failed retest and lower high. 1. Fresh continuation above 5.39. Sustained acceptance above 5.49 initially. The 5.60 area is a subsequent supply test, not a substitute for the nearer objective. A new entry and stop must be built around the actual retest; the earlier breakout stops cannot simply be carried forward. If the remaining distance to 5.49 does not justify the structural risk, pass. 2. Buy a new defended pullback into 5.10–5.12. This deeper alternative requires an actual return to demand, acceptance above 5.12 and a separate defended retest. Illustrative parameters: **entry 5.125, stop 5.095, initial target 5.170**—approximately **1.50R before costs**. The stop must sit below the completed retest low. This is a fresh pullback scenario, not an instruction to place a blind bid. 3. Sell a confirmed failure of 5.10 demand. Acceptance below 5.100 followed by a failed retest would weaken the recovery. Illustrative parameters: **entry 5.095, stop 5.135, initial target 5.025**—approximately **1.75R**. Further downside toward 5.00 and 4.92 requires additional confirmation through the intervening support. 4. Secondary bearish rotation after a fresh lower resistance test. If price revisits 5.22–5.29 and subsequently establishes acceptance below 5.170, a failed retest could support a short toward demand. Illustrative parameters: **entry 5.165, stop 5.215, initial target 5.120**—approximately **0.90R**. This requires an entirely new rejection structure; it is not a valid standing short against an advance already above 5.39. The original **5.23 → 5.26**and**5.29 → 5.35** breakout stages have already been traversed. Their appearance on the chart preserves the decision map; it does not mean those original entries remain available. The numerical pullback and failure examples remain below 2R before costs. For a new continuation above 5.39, reward must be measured to 5.49 using the actual retest stop. Do not manufacture an attractive ratio by ignoring the first resistance or placing the stop inside ordinary price noise. NEAR’s relative strength does not isolate it from the broader market. A BTC breakdown, stronger dollar or renewed rise in Treasury yields could undermine the advance. In the assessment’s macro map, DXY above 102.35–102.55 and US10Y back above 5.28%–5.30% would represent potential headwinds. NOTATAE BENE MA's: Purple and pink are the fast and slow Kaufman Adaptive Moving Averages. Cyan marks continuation thresholds. Yellow identifies objectives, including those already reached. Green marks 5.10–5.12 demand. Red at 5.17 identifies the conditional failure threshold, not a universal protective stop. Gray shading marks the underlying 4.92–5.00 no-trade middle. Once a new setup begins, a first-target touch before entry confirmation cancels it. Pending entries also expire on a failed threshold or retest, after six completed 24-minute bars from the first qualifying close, or at the next 00:00 UTC reset. The outlook runs through Tuesday, October 13; continuation beyond that window requires a refreshed assessment.