NVIDIA (NVDA) — Monday and Tuesday Trading Outlook | 10-12NVIDIA CorporationBATS:NVDAsean78808MARKET OUTLOOK: A BEARISH INTRADAY AUCTION WITHIN AN INTACT WEEKLY ADVANCE Reviewed October 12, 2026, around 02:02–02:16 UTC. Levels refer to NVIDIA shares, NASDAQ with Cboe One/BATS display. Friday's daily close was 229.28; the Plan's final regular-hours 24m bar closed at 229.35. Overnight indications around 229.8–229.9 were separate observations, not Monday regular-session confirmation. Check execution-feed quotes at the open. Favor a failed bounce into 231.10–231.50 over selling the current low. A recovery long requires acceptance above 231.50 and a defended retest. The 228.80–231.50 middle offers less attractive positioning; an oversold oscillator does not establish a reversal. ACROSS THE TIMEFRAMES Weekly: The advance remains above rising KAMA's, despite rejection from 243.37. Last week's close was 229.28; this is clearly a correction within a broader uptrend. Daily: Rejection from the median of a rising MS pitchfork anchored at the 3/30 LL. Friday's 229.11 low is immediate support. 233.90 is an initial repair test. 4H: Price resides below both KAMA's. Demand around 228–230 is a location to test, not yet evidence that buyers have regained control. 24m - 48m: Lower highs and lower lows within a pitchfork channel anchored at the Higher High of 10/6, the beginning of the present correction. 24m Fast and Slow KAMAs stand above price at around 230.5 and 233.1, respectively. The 24m readings show compression, RSI 33.3 and negative CVD slope. MACD histogram is positive, but acceleration is falling and volatility expansion absent. This supports a pause more than it does a confirmed reversal. Nb: Cumulative volume delta (CVD) is a feed-specific proxy for buying/selling pressure; the displayed footprint coverage at time of analysis was limited. PRINCIPAL DECISION LEVELS 237.80: Later recovery objective after fresh 233.90 acceptance. 233.90: First recovery objective and supply. 231.10–231.50: Bounce supply; 231.50 is the recovery gate. 228.80–231.50: Rotational middle / wait. 229.10: Nearest objective for the bounce fade. 228.80: Structural failure gate. 227.40: First breakdown objective. 225.20: Later demand, requiring a separate 227.40 failure. CONDITIONAL PLANS For the scenarios below, by CONFIRMATION we mean: Two consecutive completed 24-minute closes beyond the relevant threshold, followed by a separate completed 6-minute retest. Longs require a defended higher low; shorts require a failed retest and lower high. The 6-minute retest must follow the second qualifying 24-minute close. 1. Favored: Sell a fresh failed bounce into 231.10–231.50. Price must first test that supply zone. Then require two full 24m closes back below 231.50 and the separate failed 6m retest. Deteriorating CVD and failure to hold the fast KAMA strengthen the sequence. Illustrative entry 231.25, stop 232.15, TP1 229.10: risk 0.90/share, reward 2.15, approximately 2.39R before costs. The stop must clear the actual retest high plus a valid buffer. Cancel on acceptance above 231.50. At TP1 protect/harvest; reaching 227.40 needs fresh 228.80 failure and a failed retest. 2. Alternative: Buy a genuine 231.50 recovery. Require two full 24m closes above 231.50, then the defended 6m retest. Improving KAMA direction and stabilized buying pressure strengthen the case. Illustrative entry 231.55, stop 230.65, TP1 233.90: risk 0.90, reward 2.35, approximately 2.61R before costs. The stop must clear the actual retest low plus a buffer. A completed 24m loss of 231.50 cancels the pending setup. Manage at 233.90; only new acceptance/retest opens 237.80. 3. A 228.80 breakdown remains a watch condition. Two full 24m closes below 228.80 and a failed 6m underside retest are required. Example entry 228.70, stop 229.35, TP1 227.40 offers exactly 2R gross and therefore fails a 2R net requirement. Do not substitute 225.20 to improve the ratio. EXECUTION AND MACRO CONTEXT Use Monday's opening balance and fresh same-feed retests; refresh against Monday's range on Tuesday. Wider structural stops, spread, commissions and slippage can disqualify every example. Recalculate reward to the nearest objective and require at least 2R after costs. CPI is Wednesday October 14 at 12:30 UTC. Stocks trade Monday despite the cash-bond holiday; unchanged cash-yield quotes may be stale. Friday's dated references were approximately 5.24% for nominal 10Y and 102.21 for DXY. Renewed strength is a potential recovery headwind, not an automatic signal. NOTATE BENE MA's: Purple: Fast KAMA (10,2,30). Pink: Slow KAMA (10,5,30). These Kaufman Adaptive Moving Averages describe trend direction. PITCHFORK CHANNEL: The white median line and parallel channel boundaries describe the fitted rising trend path. They provide moving references for support, resistance and the market's ability to remain within that path. The red sloping outer lines are warning lines. Price approaching or entering those areas is verging outside the trend described by the pitchfork. Sustained departure followed by a failed reclaim weakens the channel's fit. A wick through a warning line does not establish a reversal; an upper overshoot can reflect acceleration. DRAWINGS: Cyan: 231.50 recovery gate. Red: 228.80 failure gate. Yellow: objectives/supply. Gray horizontal shading: 228.80–231.50 wait/no-chase zone. Green: lower demand. This outlook ends Tuesday October 13 at 20:00 UTC; reassess before CPI.