Washington Post: “All polls have random error signified by the margin of sampling error, but in an ideal world they should overestimate each party about equally in a given election. In reality, polls have systematically overestimated either Democrats or Republicans by an average of two percentage points across the past 14 federal and gubernatorial election cycles.”“The worst cycle was 2020, when polls overestimated Democratic candidates by 4.7 percentage points on average, higher than the three-point miss in 2016 and the 2.9 point error in 2024. Election surveys were relatively accurate in President Donald Trump’s first midterms in 2018 and President Joe Biden’s midterms in 2022, with systematic error less than one point.”The New Republic: Trump polls take brutal turn as allies grow rattled: “Worse than 2006.”