ETHUSDT 15-minute chart on SMC methodETHUSDT Perpetual ContractBYBIT:ETHUSDT.PCrypto_Oracle001My friend, let me explain my reasoning using your ETHUSDT 15-minute chart and your SMC method. I want you to understand why a long might make sense, but also what would prove the idea wrong. First, my view is conditionally bullish in the short term, not a confirmed buy signal. The chart shows reasons to consider a long, but it also has resistance overhead. 1. Why I considered a LONG 1. Sell-side liquidity sweep ETH dropped sharply into the $2,410–$2,430 area, then recovered. This is consistent with a possible sweep of lows followed by rejection. It suggests sellers may have exhausted themselves, but the wick alone doesn't confirm a sweep. 2. Bullish structure shift After the low, price rallied toward $2,490–$2,500, breaking above some nearby swing highs. That supports a short-term bullish structure shift. I would want a clear candle close above the relevant swing high to validate it. 3. Potential support below price The chart marks an equilibrium/FVG area around $2,470–$2,485 and demand around $2,420–$2,440. If price pulls back, holds support, and prints a fresh bullish 5M confirmation, that could offer a better entry than chasing the rally. 4. Liquidity above current price Potential targets are the nearby highs around $2,500–$2,510, followed by $2,515–$2,525 and the $2,530–$2,540 region. These are possible reaction areas, not guaranteed targets. 2. The trade plan I would consider ETHUSDT · 15M SMC Conditional long Reference levels from your October 10 screenshot; not verified live prices. Potential entry $2,485–$2,495 Invalidation area $2,470 below Potential targets TP1 — nearby highs$2,500–$2,510 TP2 — upper liquidity$2,515–$2,525 TP3 — higher resistance$2,530–$2,540 The entry and invalidation levels are illustrative. A stop must sit beyond the actual setup's invalidation point, with room for volatility. If the structure doesn't confirm, skip the trade. 3. What would make me reject the long? - ETH breaks below $2,470 with strong bearish displacement and fails to reclaim it. - A supposed bullish CHoCH turns out to be only a minor internal break, while the 1H structure remains bearish. - Price runs into the $2,500–$2,510 liquidity area, rejects, and forms a bearish 5M/15M CHoCH. If any of those occur, I would reassess rather than keep buying. 4. Your SMC confirmation checklist Sell-side liquidity sweep is identifiable 15M candle closes above a meaningful swing high Bullish displacement leaves a clear FVG or creates an OB Price retraces into the POI and holds 5M confirms bullish structure and offers acceptable risk/reward 0 of 5 conditions checked. This is a preparation checklist, not a guarantee of profitability. My final reasoning: I considered a long because of the recovery from the lows and the apparent bullish structure shift. But the chart is consolidating near overhead resistance, and the broader downtrend line is still relevant. I would prefer a confirmed pullback entry over buying simply because price has risen. Remember: a liquidity sweep gives you a possible setup; the CHoCH and displacement provide confirmation; risk management determines whether the trade is worth taking.