BTC/USDT | Risky Counter-Trend LongBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTleonardobarriosr69⏱ Timeframe: 4H chart | Holding period: a few days BTC/USDT (4H, Binance) has dropped about 4% from the 86,000 area and wicked down to 82,228, below the lower Bollinger Band, before closing back above it. I took two long entries near 82,810-82,824, and price is now trading at 83,021. ⚠️ Very high-risk idea: this is a counter-trend trade against a clear short-term downtrend. It is dangerous, because price is still making lower lows and the drop can extend. In my opinion the risk/reward makes it worth taking, but only with small size and strict stops. 📌 Context The last candle left a long lower wick and a green close, a possible sign of buyers stepping in after the flush. Price pierced the lower band (~82,507) and recovered above it, so the move looks stretched to the downside in the short term. STC (12,26,50) is at ~0.07, in extreme oversold territory, leaving room for an upward turn. Oversold can last a long time in a falling market. The middle band (~84,877) is the first area where price could revert, and there is a clear resistance zone around 87,200-87,500 that has rejected price several times. This is a bounce after a sharp drop, so I'm using tight stops below the wick low. 🎯 Trade Plan (Long): 2 trades Trade 1 Entry: 82,823.89 TP: 84,010.22 (first reaction area) SL: 82,148.44 Risk/reward: roughly 1.74:1 Trade 2 Entry: 82,809.81 TP: 86,586.60 (below the resistance zone) SL: 82,140.13 Risk/reward: roughly 5.71:1 Note on Trade 2: this one is very situational and may never play out. It is only an extension in case price breaks the 84,000 resistance with strength. If that happens, I expect room toward 86,586, just below the next resistance zone. If price gets rejected at 84,000, I will simply manage Trade 1 and treat Trade 2 as a bonus scenario, not part of the main plan. I plan to take partial profits near 84,000 and move the stops to breakeven afterward. ⚠️ Invalidation A 4H close below 82,228 (the wick low) weakens the idea, and a close below 82,148 invalidates it. Sharp drops can extend, so I won't go long without a stop. 💬 Do you see a bounce or more downside from here? Let me know in the comments. This is only my personal analysis and not financial advice. Do your own research and manage your risk.