PAUL SONNE, JULIAN E. BARNES2026年10月12日位于俄罗斯伊尔库茨克的西伯利亚及远东地区抗鼠疫研究所，摄于周三。该所一名28岁研究人员死于不明原因的肺炎。” Associated PressMore than a week after a young plague researcher’s mysterious death from pneumonia, Russia has still not publicly identified the pathogen that killed her.一名年轻的鼠疫研究人员因肺炎神秘死亡已超过一周，俄罗斯至今仍未公开确认导致她死亡的病原体。The possibility that the researcher contracted pneumonic plague in her lab led to global fears of an outbreak. Those worries have begun to recede as no other known cases have surfaced in the Irkutsk region, where Darya Shipilova, a 28-year-old researcher at the Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia and the Far East, died on Oct. 2.由于这名研究人员可能是在实验室感染肺鼠疫的，这引发了全球对疫情暴发的担忧。不过，随着伊尔库茨克地区未出现其他已知病例，这种担忧已经开始消退。10月2日，28岁的达里娅·希皮洛娃在该地区去世。她生前是西伯利亚及远东地区抗鼠疫研究所的一名研究人员。But the absence of an official explanation for Ms. Shipilova’s death, despite thousands of tests conducted on others in the community and on her own remains, has stoked concerns about what, if anything, Russia’s authoritarian government might be hiding.然而，尽管当局对当地其他居民以及希皮洛娃的遗体进行了数千次检测，却始终未对她的死因给出官方解释，这不禁令人怀疑，俄罗斯威权政府是否有所隐瞒，如果确实如此，它究竟在隐瞒什么？According to Rospotrebnadzor, the Russian public health regulator, Ms. Shipilova’s remains did not test positive for any of the dangerous pathogens she was working on at the institute, which included the bacterium that causes the plague. The regulator has said she died of pneumonia of an unknown origin. Pneumonia can be caused by numerous viruses, bacteria and fungi.据俄罗斯公共卫生监管机构——联邦消费者权益保护和公益监督局称，希皮洛娃的遗体没有检测出她在研究所接触的任何危险病原体呈阳性，其中包括引起鼠疫的细菌。该监管机构说，她死于来源不明的肺炎。肺炎可由多种病毒、细菌和真菌引起。The World Health Organization is still seeking to understand the “causative agent” of the fatal pneumonia, whether or not it was the plague, Maria Van Kerkhove, the W.H.O.’s director of epidemic and pandemic management, said at a news conference on Wednesday.世界卫生组织负责流行病和大流行病管理的主任玛丽亚·范凯尔克霍夫周三在新闻发布会上表示，世卫组织仍在设法查明这起致命肺炎病例的“致病因子”，包括确认它是否由鼠疫引起。“If that is ruled out — they say that is ruled out — what did she actually die from?” Ms. Van Kerkhove asked.“如果鼠疫的可能性被排除了——他们说已经排除了——那么她究竟是因为什么死的？”范凯尔克霍夫问道。Experts said they believed that with modern testing technology, the Russian authorities should know the answer by now.专家表示，他们认为，凭借现代检测技术，俄罗斯当局现在应该已经知道答案。“Presumably, they have the capability within days to do a simple genome sequence,” said Raj Panjabi, who served as a White House public health official during the Biden administration. “Presumably, they’ve done that, but they’ve not shared the results, and that’s concerning.”“按理说，他们有能力在几天内完成简单的基因组测序，”拜登政府时期曾担任白宫公共卫生官员的拉杰·潘贾比说。“按理说，他们已经做了测序，但没有公布结果，这令人担忧。”The lingering questions reflect a broader lack of global public trust that stems in part from unanswered questions about the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic.这些挥之不去的疑问反映出全球公众普遍存在的信任缺失，而这种不信任在一定程度上源于新冠疫情的起源至今仍未得到解答。More than six years after Covid upended the world, questions remain about whether the lab that was studying bat coronaviruses in the Chinese city where the pandemic started played a role in the outbreak. China swiftly rejected the possibility and impeded a global investigation into the matter.新冠疫情给世界带来巨大冲击，六年多过去了，人们仍有诸多疑问尚未得到解答，其中包括：在疫情最初暴发的那座中国城市，一家从事蝙蝠冠状病毒研究的实验室是否与疫情暴发有关。中国迅速否认了这种可能性，并阻碍国际社会对此展开调查。In Russia, any possible case of a pathogen escaping a lab attracts outsize attention globally in part because the country is one of the few in the world that continues to work on biological weapons, according to the U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat assessment.在俄罗斯，任何一起疑似病原体从实验室泄漏的事件都会引起国际社会的高度关注。部分原因是，根据美国情报界的年度威胁评估，俄罗斯是世界上少数几个仍在开展生物武器研究的国家之一。That has led to greater concern among officials and experts in the United States, who point to the nation’s vulnerabilities.这加剧了美国官员和专家的担忧，他们指出，美国在应对这类威胁方面存在薄弱环节。“The United States does not have a licensed plague vaccine,” said Andrew Weber, a senior fellow at the Council on Strategic Risks and a former Pentagon official in charge of biodefense. “Given that Russia has an illegal bioweapons program, it is very concerning.”“美国没有获得许可的鼠疫疫苗，”战略风险委员会高级研究员、曾在五角大楼负责生物防御事务的安德鲁·韦伯说。“鉴于俄罗斯有一个非法生物武器项目，这非常令人担忧。”There is no indication that the Irkutsk institute was doing bioweapons research, people briefed on U.S. intelligence said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to give a candid assessment.听取过美国情报简报的人士表示，没有迹象表明伊尔库茨克的这家研究所正在开展生物武器研究。这些人士要求匿名，以便坦率地作出评估。Ms. Shipilova was involved in testing which antibiotics and doses worked against Y. pestis, the bacterium that causes the plague, according to the summary of a study presented this year at a Moscow infectious disease conference.根据今年在莫斯科一场传染病会议上发表的研究摘要，希皮洛娃参与了针对鼠疫耶尔森菌的研究，测试哪些抗生素及多大剂量能够有效对抗这种引发鼠疫的细菌。The plague, which is endemic to Siberia and some other regions of the world, caused the “Black Death” that ravaged Eurasia in the 14th century, but it is treatable with antibiotics if caught quickly. Pneumonic plague is considered the most dangerous of the three main forms of infection, because it spreads from person to person and causes deadly, rapid-onset pneumonia.鼠疫在西伯利亚和世界其他一些地区属于地方性流行病。14世纪肆虐欧亚大陆的“黑死病”就是由鼠疫引起的，但如果及早发现，可用抗生素治疗。肺鼠疫被认为是鼠疫三种主要感染类型中最危险的一种，因为它可以在人与人之间传播，并迅速引发致命性肺炎。Referring to Ms. Shipilova as “the patient,” the Russian authorities have said that she was vaccinated against the dangerous microorganisms she was working with, and that two reviews of the institute ruled out any “emergency situations” at the lab. The quarantine measures that the Russian authorities took in the Irkutsk region were put in place out of caution, owing to the nature of the patient’s work, they said.俄罗斯当局将希皮洛娃称为“患者”，并表示她已经接种了针对其工作中接触的危险微生物的疫苗，对研究所进行的两次调查也排除了实验室存在任何“紧急情况”。他们说，之所以在伊尔库茨克地区采取隔离措施，是考虑到患者的工作性质，出于谨慎而采取的预防措施。Plague vaccines have long existed, but experts have raised serious doubts about their effectiveness and safety.鼠疫疫苗早已问世，但专家对其有效性和安全性一直存在严重质疑。Beyond what pathogen led to Ms. Shipilova’s pneumonia, many other questions remain unanswered, including where she was in the days leading up to her death, what she was working on at the institute at the time, and how and when her illness first showed itself and then progressed.除了是什么病原体导致希皮洛娃患上肺炎之外，还有许多问题没有答案，包括她去世前几天在哪里、当时在研究所做什么，以及她的病症最初何时出现、有哪些表现，之后又是如何发展的。Labs around the world working with deadly germs take extensive precautions to keep workers from being infected, but accidents have occurred.世界各地研究致命病原体的实验室都会采取严格的防护措施，避免工作人员受到感染，但事故仍有发生。Though Russia took swift action to quarantine and test individuals who had come into contact with the researcher, Rospotrebnadzor has not held any news briefings and has provided information only in periodic public statements. The Kremlin has declined to field specific questions, urging the public to listen only to public health officials.尽管俄罗斯迅速采取行动，对与这名研究人员有过接触的人实施隔离和检测，但俄联邦消费者权益保护和公益监督局没有举行过任何新闻发布会，只是不定期发布公开声明。克里姆林宫则拒绝回答具体问题，敦促公众只听取公共卫生官员发布的信息。Russia has been slow to reveal the details of other incidents with possible public health implications.对于其他可能影响公众健康的事件，俄罗斯也曾迟迟不肯披露相关细节。In 2019, Moscow concealed critical information about the failed underwater recovery of a nuclear-powered missile in the White Sea, which caused an explosion and left seven people dead. The authorities did not initially say that a nuclear device was involved, acknowledge a spike in radiation or warn doctors that they were treating irradiated patients.2019年，俄罗斯在白海打捞一枚核动力导弹失败，引发爆炸，造成七人死亡。莫斯科隐瞒了这一事件的关键信息。俄罗斯当局最初既没有说明事件涉及核装置，也没有承认辐射水平曾急剧上升，更没有提醒医生，他们正在救治的患者受到了辐射。Nondisclosure has long been the modus operandi of the Soviet and now Russian bureaucracy, said Alexander Kelle, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg in Germany. He cautioned against reading too much into the paucity of details.德国汉堡大学和平研究与安全政策研究所高级研究员亚历山大·凯勒表示，不披露信息长期以来一直是苏联乃至如今俄罗斯官僚机构的惯常做法。他提醒人们，不要因为披露的细节有限就过度解读。“Just because there is a lack of information, we have to be careful not to equate that with something nefarious,” Mr. Kelle said, noting that there were many legitimate public health reasons for researchers to work on dangerous pathogens.“正因为信息缺乏，我们就必须谨慎，不能因此认定背后有什么不可告人的勾当，”凯勒说，并指出研究人员研究危险病原体有许多正当的公共卫生理由。To posit any link to Russian biowarfare, he said, would “be stretching the very limited evidence that has been presented too far.”他说，如果据此推断这起事件与俄罗斯的生物战研究存在任何联系，那就“远远超出了目前极其有限的证据所能支持的范围”。In a video message on Thursday, the governor of the Irkutsk region, Igor Kobzev, sought to close the book on the episode. He said that the medical monitoring of people in the region had concluded and thanked his fellow Russian officials for taking swift action under intense scrutiny.伊尔库茨克州州长伊戈尔·科布泽夫周四发布视频讲话，试图为这一事件画上句号。他说，对该地区相关人员的医学监测已经结束，并感谢俄罗斯其他官员在受到密切关注的情况下迅速采取行动。Mr. Kobzev said the W.H.O. had publicly confirmed that there were no risks to public health, though the organization has said it has not received enough information from Russia to make a risk assessment.科布泽夫称，世卫组织已公开确认不存在公共卫生风险。然而，世卫组织表示，尚未从俄罗斯获得足够的信息，无法进行风险评估。Some people commenting on Mr. Kobzev’s video in his Telegram channel weren’t having it.但在科布泽夫的Telegram频道上，一些给他的视频留言的人并不买账。“What caused the pneumonia that killed the healthy young woman?” one asked.“究竟是什么引发了肺炎，夺走了这名健康年轻女性的生命？”一人问道。“Are there really still naïve, gullible people in our city who would believe this?” another commenter said.另一名评论者说：“难道我们这座城市里真的还有这么天真、这么轻信别人的人，会相信这一套吗？”A third wrote: “X-Files, nothing to see here.”还有人写道：“简直就是《X档案》：没什么好看的，都散了吧。”K. R. Callaway对本文有报道贡献。Paul Sonne是一名国际新闻记者，报道俄罗斯新闻和普京的国内和国际政策产生的一系列影响，主要关注乌克兰战争。Julian E. Barnes为《纽约时报》报道美国情报机构和国际安全事务。他撰写安全相关议题已有20余年。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。