GIGI KWIK GRONVALL2026年10月12日 Bina ThorsenA 28-year-old woman who worked at an anti-plague research laboratory in Siberia died on Oct. 2, raising concerns and many questions. Russian officials have said that the woman died from a pneumonia of unknown origin and that no “emergency situations” had occurred at the laboratory where she worked. They stated they’d almost finished the investigation of her contacts to monitor for illness, with no concerning findings.10月2日，一名在西伯利亚一家鼠疫研究实验室工作的28岁女性去世，引发了人们的担忧和诸多疑问。俄罗斯官员表示，这名女性死于病因不明的肺炎，她所在的实验室没有发生任何“紧急事件”。他们还表示，对其接触者进行的健康监测调查已接近尾声，目前没有发现任何令人担忧的情况。The Russian pronouncements contrasted with furious speculation elsewhere about what happened. Initial, unverified reports from local media suggested that the lab worker had accidentally broken a test tube containing Yersinia pestis, the bacterium that causes the plague. Local hospitals, including a maternity hospital, limited visitors and instituted enhanced health checks. A local factory required masks for its workers.俄罗斯官方的说法与其他地方对事件真相的激烈猜测形成鲜明对比。当地媒体最初未经证实的报道称，这名实验室工作人员意外打碎了一支装有鼠疫耶尔森菌的试管，这种细菌会引发鼠疫。当地多家医院，包括一家妇产医院，限制了访客，并加强了健康检查。当地一家工厂还要求员工佩戴口罩。The World Health Organization has said, based on the unofficial information available, that “the public health risk to the general population appears to be low.” Indeed, the available evidence does not point to a global plague emergency. But this tragic death should prompt Americans to question whether we have the capacity to recognize and contain the next disease threat.世界卫生组织表示，根据现有的非官方信息，“普通公众面临的公共卫生风险似乎较低”。确实，现有证据并不表明全球正面临鼠疫疫情紧急事态。但这起悲剧性的死亡事件应该促使美国人思考：我们是否有能力及时发现并遏制下一场疾病威胁。While the plague is of course deadly, it is treatable with antibiotics if identified quickly. The form of the plague the Siberian lab worker is rumored to have contracted is called pneumonic plague. It infects the lungs and can spread between people — unlike bubonic plague, the likely cause of the 14th-century Black Death, which is primarily transmitted by flea bites.鼠疫固然致命，但如果及早确诊，它是可以用抗生素治疗的。据传，这名西伯利亚实验室工作人员感染的是肺鼠疫。肺鼠疫会侵袭肺部，并且可人际传播，这与腺鼠疫不同。腺鼠疫很可能是14世纪黑死病的元凶，主要通过跳蚤叮咬传播。But even pneumonic plague has relatively limited transmissibility. Historically, one person infected with pneumonic plague has transmitted the disease to an average of 1.3 other people; by way of comparison, measles may transmit to 12 to 18 people in an unvaccinated population. Transmission of the pneumonic plague before symptoms appear has not been documented, so caregivers and close contacts have been the most at risk of infection. Masks, contact tracing and isolation and other established infection control procedures should work well to limit the spread of pneumonic plague.但即便是肺鼠疫，其传播力也相对有限。历史数据显示，一名肺鼠疫感染者平均会传染1.3个人；相比之下，麻疹在未接种疫苗人群中可能传染12到18人。目前尚无肺鼠疫患者在出现症状前传播疾病的记录，因此，护理人员和密切接触者面临的感染风险最高。佩戴口罩、追踪接触者、实施隔离以及其他既有的感染控制程序应该能够有效限制肺鼠疫的传播。Still, we should get better answers about what happened in Siberia than those that Russia has so far provided. Was there a laboratory accident? If so, when was it recognized, and what treatment did the exposed lab worker receive? What prompted the extensive monitoring of her contacts? Outsiders’ concerns were in part fueled by speculation about biological weapons. The U.S. intelligence community assesses Russia to have a clandestine biological weapons program. The former Soviet Union included Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, in its armamentarium.尽管如此，俄罗斯迄今提供的信心远远不够，我们仍有必要弄清西伯利亚究竟发生了什么。实验室是否发生了事故？如果是，事故是在什么时候被发现的？受到暴露的实验室工作人员接受了什么治疗？是什么原因促使当局对她的接触者展开大规模健康监测？外界的担忧在一定程度上受到生物武器相关猜测的推动。美国情报界评估认为，俄罗斯拥有一个秘密生物武器项目。前苏联曾将引发鼠疫的鼠疫耶尔森菌纳入其生物武器库。Disease surprises could come from many places. That’s why it’s dispiriting that the United States has so isolated itself. After withdrawing from the W.H.O. in January, and calling back the U.S. experts on loan to the organization, America now has less direct information about potential disease emergencies. The dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development cut off scientific collaborations and relationships through which emerging threats could be identified. Cuts and restrictions on infectious disease research have weakened American scientists’ ability to help establish safe laboratory practices internationally. We are diminishing our access to important public health information as well as our influence over what happens next.疾病带来的意外威胁可能来自许多地方。因此，美国如今如此孤立于国际社会之外令人沮丧。自今年1月退出世界卫生组织并召回借调给该组织的美国专家以来，美国如今能够直接获取的潜在疾病紧急事件信息减少了。美国国际开发署遭解散也切断了原本有助于识别新兴疾病威胁的科研合作及合作关系。对传染病研究的经费削减和限制削弱了美国科学家协助国际社会建立安全实验室操作规范的能力。我们不仅正在减少获取重要公共卫生信息的渠道，也在削弱自身对未来事态发展的影响力。The Trump administration fired thousands of people at the Department of Health and Human Services, including pandemic experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response. Losing this expertise has weakened capabilities that took years to build. No quick fix — and no artificial intelligence model — can replace the professional judgment, experience and trusted relationships needed to investigate and assess what is truly going on in a disease outbreak anywhere in the world. Infectious diseases do not recognize borders.特朗普政府解雇了卫生与公众服务部数千名工作人员，其中包括疾病控制与预防中心以及战略准备与应对管理局的疫情防控专家。这些专业人才的流失削弱了美国耗费多年建立起来的应对能力。要调查和评估世界任何地方暴发的疫情究竟是怎么回事都需要专业判断、丰富经验和长期建立的信任关系。任何权宜之计，乃至任何人工智能模型，都无法取代。传染病不认国界。During the Covid-19 pandemic, American biotechnology and biological expertise helped deliver vaccines, diagnostics and treatments. The response had profound shortcomings, especially the failure to ramp up diagnostic testing and the lack of personal protective equipment available to medical staff in the earliest days of the pandemic. We should be building on our capacity and correcting those failures. Instead, we are weakening our public health infrastructure while thousands of Americans, including many children, suffer from preventable infections like measles. We are also undermining preparation for future potential threats, such as H5N1 influenza — the bird flu. That virus was recently detected at a U.S. mink farm, and remains a potential pandemic pathogen. The Trump administration canceled a contract to develop an mRNA H5N1 vaccine for humans.新冠疫情期间，美国的生物技术和生物医学专业能力帮助推动了疫苗、诊断检测手段和治疗方法的开发与应用。但美国的疫情应对存在严重缺陷，尤其是未能迅速扩大诊断检测规模，以及疫情初期医护人员缺乏个人防护装备。我们本应在现有能力的基础上继续加强建设，并纠正这些失误。然而，我们却在削弱公共卫生基础设施，与此同时，包括许多儿童在内的成千上万美国人正遭受麻疹等本可预防的传染病侵袭。我们也在削弱应对未来潜在威胁的准备工作，例如H5N1流感，也就是禽流感。最近，美国一家水貂养殖场检测出了这种病毒，而它仍是一种可能引发大流行的病原体。特朗普政府还取消了一项为人类研发H5N1信使核糖核酸疫苗的合同。The lesson from an unexplained death in Siberia should be that disease emergencies demand evidence, expertise and cooperation. They demand continued investment in the tools that can be used to investigate and limit disease outbreaks. Most important, they demand investment in the people who can use those tools.西伯利亚这起死因不明的事件应该带给我们的教训是，应对突发疾病事件需要证据、专业知识和合作。我们必须对疫情的调查及控制工具进行持续投资。最重要的是，我们必须投资于那些能够运用这些工具的专业人才。图片来源：Chris Ware / Stringer via Getty Images