Bulls are back, but the bears still control the higher GroundXAU/USD Spot - GoldFX:XAUUSDFX_Scrubbs🟡 Hello Bandies — Gold has rebounded sharply from the $4,067–$4,110 demand region, with bullish displacement on the 4H chart and a developing short-term recovery. However, the recovery is now approaching a cluster of resistance levels around $4,207–$4,255. Above that sits the more substantial $4,285–$4,297 supply zone. A move higher into liquidity and supply remains possible, but a confirmed higher-timeframe bullish reversal has not yet occurred. The next reaction at resistance will be particularly important. Gold finished Friday with a recovery of roughly 1.5%, helped by bargain hunting and some easing in dollar and yield pressure. But the Federal Reserve's tightening outlook remains a headwind. The World Gold Council also highlighted how rising yields and dollar strength drove September's weakness, despite substantial gold ETF inflows. The coming week's main catalysts are: - 🏦 Monday, Oct12: Fed commentary. - 📊 Wednesday, Oct14: U.S. CPI inflation & the Fed Beige Book. - 🔥 Thursday, Oct15: PPI, retail sales and initial jobless claims. - 🏭 Friday, Oct16: Industrial production, Fed Warsh Speaks 🔴 Monthly: Bearish 🔴 Weekly: Bearish, defending major trendline support 🟡 Daily: Recovering, but still below key resistance 🟢 4H: Bullish displacement 🟢 1H: Bullish, momentum slowing Lets deep dive : 🟣 Monthly — Bearish correction - Gold previously rallied toward the $5,600 region before experiencing a significant reversal. - A monthly bearish CHoCH is marked around $4,300, suggesting the previous bullish structure has weakened. - Price has failed to reclaim the $4,550 resistance region. - The recent recovery from around $3,950 has stalled, with sellers defending the $4,450–$4,550 region. - Monthly MACD momentum continues to weaken, supporting the broader corrective outlook. Bias: 🔴 Bearish correction, with $3,950 remaining an important structural support. 🔴 WEEKLY — THE BIGGER BATTLE Gold remains in a bearish corrective structure, trading below its descending trendline while defending the longer-term ascending support. The market is compressing between these structures, and something eventually has to give! 🧲 Major support: $4,100–$4,000 🔴 Higher supply: $4,340–$4,550 A sustained loss of the rising trendline could expose deeper sell-side liquidity. 🟡 DAILY — BUYERS ARE FIGHTING BACK! The Daily chart has produced a strong recovery from $4,110, but price is now testing the previous bearish BOS region around $4,195–$4,210. Daily MACD remains negative, although bearish momentum is fading. The recovery is promising, but a bullish retracement is not the same as a confirmed trend reversal! 🟢 4H — BULLISH DISPLACEMENT! Now things get interesting! 😈 The 4H has delivered strong bullish displacement, reclaiming the $4,180 area. We have: 🧲 Equal highs around $4,220 🟡 A 4H FVG at $4,225–$4,255 🔴 A higher supply zone at $4,285–$4,297 Could Gold sweep the equal highs, rebalance the FVG and then reject from supply? That's one of our preferred scenarios! 🎯 🟢 1H — MOMENTUM IS SLOWING The 1H remains bullish in the short term, but momentum is cooling as price approaches resistance. A confirmed breakout above $4,207–$4,220 could open the next leg higher. However, failure to hold $4,182–$4,168 would weaken the recovery. ⚔️ The trading scenarios 🟢 Bullish continuation: A convincing break and hold above $4,207–$4,220 could attract price toward the 4H FVG at $4,225–$4,255, followed by $4,285–$4,297. That would still be a recovery inside the broader bearish structure. 🔴 Bearish rejection: A sweep of $4,220, the FVG, or the higher $4,285–$4,297 supply followed by bearish 30M/1H structure would favor a return toward $4,182 → $4,168 → $4,110. A sustained break below $4,110 could expose $4,067 → $4,023 → $3,943. 🟡 Liquidity sweep and reclaim: If price sweeps below $4,168 but quickly reclaims it, that could indicate a failed breakdown and another attempt toward $4,207. 🧲 Liquidity Sweep → 🔄 CHoCH → 💥 BOS → 🎯 Retest → Execute ⚔️ OUR GAME PLAN 🟢 Bullish path: $4,207 → $4,220 → $4,255 → $4,285/$4,297 🔴 Bearish rejection: Watch for selling confirmation around $4,225–$4,255 or $4,285–$4,297. 🎯 Downside targets: $4,182 → $4,168 → $4,110 → $4,067 And if the higher-timeframe support finally gives way, $4,023 and $3,943 come into focus. 🥷 “THE BULLS HAVE WON A ROUND, BUT THE BEARS STILL OWN THE HIGHER GROUND!” ⚔️🔥 Let liquidity come to us, wait for confirmation, and trade what price delivers. PLAN THE TRADE & TRADE THE PLAN. 🥷