Gold Futures (MGC) Breakout Plan — Week of 12 October 2026Micro Gold FuturesCOMEX_MINI_DL:MGC1!F0rexBorexGold Futures (MGC) Breakout Plan — Week of 12 October 2026 11 Oct 2026 · Summary This week's plan is a breakout bracket on Micro Gold futures. I'll buy above 4,232.40 if price breaks out of Friday's range, or sell into the 4,204.30–4,186.30 zone if it breaks down. Only one side should trigger, so the two orders are one-cancels-the-other. The sell side has stronger support. A Fibonacci retracement lines up almost exactly with the sell zone, and the short-term rising trendline had already broken by Friday's close. The buy needs to clear two descending trendlines and an order block, then runs into an unfilled 4H gap. MGC1! closed Friday at 4,220.30. Context Price is boxed in between the two triggers. After the early Asian rally, Friday's futures traded between 4,193.20 and 4,233.50, and the close at 4,220.30 sits in the upper half of that range. • Daily trend: down. Lower highs at 4,558.60, 4,439.90 and 4,259.00, with lower lows at 4,273.10 and 4,143.00. Friday's rally is a bounce inside that downtrend unless price gets above 4,259.00. • 4H and 1H: ranging. Neither timeframe has a clear sequence. Friday was mostly a range day after the rally from Thursday's 4,129.20 low. • Overhead. A daily bearish gap from late September (4,218.00–4,289.10) is partly filled, and price closed inside it. Price conversion. I drew the levels on spot gold with my spread-betting broker, then moved them onto the futures chart. At Friday's close, futures traded 26.31 points above spot (spot mid 4,193.99 against MGC 4,220.30), so every level was shifted by +26.31. Over Friday's last two hours the gap moved between about 24.9 and 26.0, so treat converted levels as accurate to about a point. The sell: 4,204.30 to 4,186.30 The sell zone is where Friday's range support sits. If it gives way, I expect price to retrace a large part of Thursday's rally. Why the zone. I measured the retracement from Thursday's low at 4,129.20 to Friday's late swing high at 4,228.00. The levels line up with the plan closely: Fib Price Lines up with 23.6% 4,204.68 Sell zone top, 4,204.30 (0.4 pts away) 38.2% 4,190.26 Sell zone bottom, 4,186.30 50% 4,178.60 Inside the 15M gap at 4,173.70–4,180.40 61.8% 4,166.94 Sell TP1 4,168.30 and a 1H bullish order block at 4,168.00–4,169.50 78.6% 4,150.34 Sell TP2, 4,152.30 Triggers. • Price had already closed back under the 15M rising trendline by Friday's close (more on that below). That is the first sign the short-term buying is fading. • The 1H bullish order block at 4,200.30–4,207.80 sits at the top of the zone. A 30-minute or 1H close below 4,200.30 is my confirmation that support has broken. • Inside the zone is a 1H bullish gap (4,175.40–4,194.30). Expect some buying there, so I'm not chasing the first move. Targets. TP1 4,168.30, TP2 4,152.30 and TP3 4,140.30 take price back through Thursday's rally. Further targets (4,126.30–4,110.30, 4,086.30, 4,066.30, 4,026.30, 3,966.30–3,956.30, 3,906.30, 3,826.30) are for a full continuation of the daily downtrend. I won't count on those this week. Invalidation. A move back above 4,217.40, the bottom of the 15M bearish order block, means the breakdown has failed. The buy: above 4,232.40 The buy is a breakout trade. It only makes sense if price can clear everything that capped it on Friday. What it has to clear. • 15M bearish order block, 4,217.40–4,226.90. This formed on Friday morning after a sweep of liquidity, and it held price down for the rest of the day. • Friday's highs. The swing high at 4,228.00 and the session high at 4,233.50. The 4,232.40 trigger sits between them, so a fill means price is trading above Friday's evening high and testing its morning high. • Two descending trendlines. On the 1H, the lower highs from 4,233.50 to 4,228.00 project to about 4,227.30. On the 4H, the line from the 4,259.00 high to 4,233.50 is the bigger one. A fill at 4,232.40 puts price above the first; it then needs to hold above the second. Targets. TP1 4,246.30 and TP2 4,256.30 sit just under the daily lower high at 4,259.00. From there, TP2 to TP6 (4,256.30–4,324.30) are all inside an unfilled 4H bearish gap at 4,250.70–4,317.70. Expect a grind through that area, not a clean run. Take profits along the way. Invalidation. A close back below 4,217.40 means price has returned under the order block, and the breakout has failed. The buy is the counter-trend side of this plan, because the daily trend is still down. It needs a convincing close above 4,233.50, not just a spike through the trigger. Trendlines, fair value gaps and order blocks Trendlines Line Points Reading at Friday's close What it means 15M rising lows 4,193.20 → 4,204.90 → 4,209.70 → 4,217.60 About 4,224.30; price closed at 4,220.30, below it Short-term buying has stalled. Supports the sell 1H lower highs 4,233.50 → 4,228.00 About 4,227.30 The buy trigger sits above it 4H lower highs 4,259.00 → 4,233.50 Descending from the daily lower high The main line the buy has to break Fair value gaps Gap Range Status Role 4H bearish 4,250.70 – 4,317.70 Partly filled Resistance across buy TP2–TP6 1H bullish 4,175.40 – 4,194.30 Partly filled Support inside the sell zone 15M bullish 4,173.70 – 4,180.40 Unfilled Magnet once the sell zone breaks Order blocks Block Range Role 15M bearish (swept liquidity) 4,217.40 – 4,226.90 Overhead resistance. The buy has to clear it, and the sell is invalidated back above it 1H bullish 4,200.30 – 4,207.80 Support at the top of the sell zone. A close below confirms the sell Levels Futures prices, with the spot level I originally drew alongside. Level MGC futures Spot (drawn) Buy TP6 4,324.30 4,298 Buy TP5 4,302.30 4,276 Buy TP4 4,280.30 4,254 Buy TP3 4,268.30 4,242 Buy TP2 4,256.30 4,230 Buy TP1 4,246.30 4,220 BUY trigger 4,232.40 4,206.08 Friday close 4,220.30 4,193.99 SELL zone top 4,204.30 4,178 SELL zone bottom 4,186.30 4,160 Sell TP1 4,168.30 4,142 Sell TP2 4,152.30 4,126 Sell TP3 4,140.30 4,114 Sell TP4 zone 4,126.30 – 4,110.30 4,100 – 4,084 Sell TP5 4,086.30 4,060 Sell TP6 4,066.30 4,040 The extended targets are TP7 to TP10 on both sides. On the buy side they are 4,383.30, 4,406.30, 4,430.30 and 4,532.30. On the sell side they are 4,026.30, 3,966.30–3,956.30, 3,906.30 and 3,826.30. These are weekly-scale levels for a sustained move. Risks and conditions • Holiday liquidity. Monday 12 October is a US and Japanese bank holiday. Expect a thin, slow start and a higher chance of false breaks in either direction. I'd rather wait for London or New York volume before trusting a trigger. • Chop between the triggers. The two triggers are 28 points apart, with the order block and Friday's close in the middle. Price could range there for a while. Neither order should fill on a wick alone. • The buy fights the trend. The daily trend is down. A breakout above 4,232.40 runs straight into the 4H gap and the daily lower high at 4,259.00, so trade it smaller than the sell. • Conversion drift. The +26.31 futures-to-spot gap changes with interest rates and time to expiry, and it moved by about a point on Friday alone. Re-check it before relying on any level near its trigger. • News. No high-impact releases are scheduled through Tuesday 13 October. Several Fed speakers are on the calendar, all rated low impact.