XAUUSD M15 - Potential Bearish ContinuationGoldOANDA:XAUUSDRakyatTraderGold is testing the lower boundary of a rising channel following a sharp decline. The recovery appears corrective, with price trading around the equilibrium area near 4,122-4,129 and below the marked golden ratio zone at 4,143.098-4,155.187. Technical Outlook The projected scenario shows a channel breakdown toward support around 4,100, followed by a possible rebound into equilibrium. Rejection from that area and a confirmed break below 4,100 would strengthen the case for further downside. Key downside levels: - Initial support: Around 4,100 - Previous day low: 4,066.535 - Demand zone: Approximately 4,021-4,047.872 Fundamentals A stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields have pressured gold, which fell to a two-month low on October 7. These conditions remain a headwind for a sustained recovery. The September Fed minutes indicated that most policymakers anticipated another rate hike before year-end, without pushing for immediate action in October. This keeps interest-rate expectations relevant to gold's direction. Geopolitics Increased attacks on shipping in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz have added to supply concerns amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. For this setup, escalation represents a risk to the bearish outlook because it could trigger safe-haven buying. Higher oil prices could also reinforce inflation concerns, creating competing pressures on gold. Scenario Validation The bearish projection needs confirmation from a channel breakdown and subsequent loss of the 4,100 support area. While that support holds, another rebound remains possible. A sustained recovery above 4,155.187 would weaken the bearish setup and bring 4,170.000 into focus, followed by the marked high at 4,184.385. The projected path illustrates a scenario, not an exact price or timing forecast. Let price confirm the setup and keep risk controlled. Rakyat Trader