US October UMich prelim consumer sentiment 46.3 vs 47.8 expected

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Prior was 48.1Current conditions 44.7  vs 51.0 expExpectations 47.3  vs 45.5 expOne-year inflation 4.7% vs 4.6% priorFive-year inflation 3.5% vs 3.4% priorThis report used to be a market mover and fooled the Fed into hiking in the last cycle but it's increasingly unreliable and more a measure of the political mood in the US than anything. That said, the inflation expectations numbers are still worth watching, even if they're mostly a read on gasoline prices.For what it's worth, this is the worst reading in at least 50 years.For background, the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers is one of the longest-running gauges of US household mood. It dates back to the late 1940s, and the headline sentiment index is built from two pieces: a current conditions index and a consumer expectations index. Each month brings a preliminary reading around mid-month and a final reading two weeks later. The survey moved fully online in 2024, which is part of why readings have run lower than in the pre-pandemic era.Beyond the headline, the survey’s inflation expectations get plenty of attention from the Fed and markets. It tracks both one-year and five-year expectations.This year has been rough. Sentiment hit a record low of 44.8 in May as high prices, Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on households. It recovered for a couple of months, reaching 55.2 in July, before sliding again.The final September reading was 48.1, revised up from a preliminary 47.8 but down from 51.7 in August. That was the second straight monthly decline and the lowest in four months. Current conditions slipped to 50.9, and consumers reported worse views of their personal finances and growing worries about prices. Sentiment is 16% below February, before the Iran conflict began, and the decline has been broad across political affiliation.The final release is due on October 23. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.