BTC: Range regime day 2 — label cycling, $76.2K below decliningBitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDRegimeRiskRegime State BTCUSD is in a Range regime for 2 bars with a negative score. After a week of label cycling — Bear, Bull, Bull, Bull, Range — something shifted under the surface today. The probability model has swung to 91% Range confidence, its highest reading of the entire post-Bull period, and for the first time since May 14 the indicator label and the underlying model are saying exactly the same thing. Whatever the model was picking up in the derivatives data through that whipsaw period, it's now settled. The Setup Price is at $76,202, having opened at $77,293 and sold off to a session low of $76,131. The 20 SMA is at $78,583 and declining — price is $2,400 below a falling average with no obvious catalyst for mean reversion yet. The chart from May 14 onward tells the story the model was trying to call before the price confirmed it: peak at $82K, whipsaw through $76K–$78K, Range classification as the ensemble found its consensus. The May 21 low at $75,149 is the key downside reference — the lowest print since the April 22 Bull regime entry and the level the model appears to have anchored the lower range boundary around. The $77.5K–$78K zone, where price consolidated for four sessions before the May 23 break, is the logical ceiling. What Would Change the Read A close below $75,149 breaks the range to the downside and likely triggers a Bear reclassification, with $74K as the next structural reference. A close above $78K with score expansion moving back toward positive territory would be the first signal the range is resolving upward. The cross-asset read adds weight to the downside scenario — ETHUSD is reading Bear at 87% confidence, and the model has a track record of BTC Range regimes resolving in the direction ETH is already pointing. Continuity Previous Idea (May 23) called the range boundaries as $77.5K–$78K above and undefined below. Two sessions later the lower boundary has defined itself at $75,149, the upper remains at $78K, and the model that was ahead of the label all week has finally aligned. Watch what it does next.