5/27/26 - $okta - Also looks at risk...Okta, Inc. Class ANASDAQ:OKTAVROCKSTAR5/27/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: OKTA Also looks at risk... - you can't in the same breath tell me that ZS is going to compound above 20% with expanding EBITDA mgns... trades at 20x EBITDA... and OKTA is decelerating growth sub double digits and with stagnant ebitda mgns and trades roughly at the same high teens call it 17-18x ebitda. - nevermind the SBC conversion... there's another 1-2Y of hope and re acceleration required to think okta is a compounder worth owning in this tape - the ZS print this AM had me looking across the cyber space (ha ha) at which names have recovered off lows and probably not for fundamental but 'rising tide lifts all boats' reasons. - with ZS now squarely a good punt (after this horrendous and probably exaggerated move), i still think it's not unreasonable to see it trade toward 15x (from the implied 20x today)... but want to hedge myself against the macro looking even less exciting (semis are struggling today... and they're the only leaders for weeks)... and a 5-10% market pullback probably sends weak names careening off a cliff (as bids are also probably last going to be put into names that require an extra bit of hope and dreams). - the GTs on this thing (okta) looks super weak. not best indicator, but say vs. something like SNOW where i can't square valuation but trends look strong and they benefit from the agentic/ txn-based narrative... i'll stay away - but this looks weak. - i want to like okta. have punted in time. but valuation, lack of cash generation, and charts that resemble exactly what ZS did into print w/o the tailwinds and scarce nature of the animal (for now) leave me wanting more - smol short. - i like smol shorts (collect em) in times like now. not enough to care if they work against me, enough to protect if tide turns and monetize into deeper stakes in my longs. V