Gold Weekly Outlook May 25-29 — New Fed Chair Warsh Takes Helm. GoldOANDA:XAUUSDAI_advisor_📊 GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOK — May 25-29, 2026 XAUUSD Daily | Neutral → Bearish Verified closing prices — May 22, 2026: 🥇 Gold: $4,509 🛢️ Brent: $100.47 ₿ Bitcoin: $74,659 May 23, 2026 📊 Dow Mini: 50,620 💶 EUR/USD: 1.1602 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡ WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEK: Week May 18-22 had three big stories: 🤖 NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 — BLOWOUT BEAT: EPS: $1.87 vs $1.78 expected ✅ Revenue: $81.62B vs $79.17B ✅ Data Center: doubled YoY to $75.2B ✅ Dividend: raised 2,400% ✅ Buyback: $80B authorized ✅ But stock FELL after results. Fourth consecutive quarter: massive beat = stock drops anyway. "Buy the rumour, sell the news." 🏦 NEW FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH: Senate confirmed Warsh as new Fed Chair replacing Powell. Known as inflation hawk. First challenge: hot inflation + Trump wants lower rates. These goals conflict. Markets watching first statements closely. 📊 FOMC MINUTES (May 20): Three FOMC voters objected to language implying next move = cut. Hawkish signals confirmed. Rate hike now on the table. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔍 TECHNICAL PICTURE (Daily): 🔴 Resistance 2: $4,700 🔴 Resistance 1: $4,630 🔵 Current price: $4,509 🟡 Support 1: $4,500 ← CRITICAL FLOOR 🟢 Support 2: $4,247 (EMA 200) EMA 50 Daily: ~$4,680 Gold is FAR BELOW EMA 50 ⚠️ Bearish signal — sellers in control. EMA 200 Daily: $4,370 Long-term bull trend intact. Ultimate floor for bulls. $4,500 tested multiple times. Holding — but barely. $4,509 = just $9 above critical level. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 SCENARIO A — Bullish (35%): Triggers needed: ✅ GDP data weak = recession confirmed ✅ PCE inflation cools = rate cuts back ✅ Iran escalates = safe-haven bid ✅ New Fed Chair Warsh sounds dovish → Gold bounces from $4,500 → Target: $4,630 → $4,700 → EMA 50 retest possible 📉 SCENARIO B — Bearish (65%): Triggers: ❌ GDP strong = no recession ❌ PCE hot = rate hikes confirmed ❌ Iran ceasefire holds ❌ Warsh signals hawkish stance → Gold breaks $4,500 support → Next stop: $4,247 (EMA 200) → Major technical damage ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📅 KEY EVENTS NEXT WEEK: Monday May 25 ⚠️: → US Memorial Day — markets CLOSED → UK Spring Bank Holiday — CLOSED → Very thin liquidity → Gap risk at Tuesday open → Do NOT trade Sunday night Tuesday May 26 🔴: → US Consumer Confidence → New Fed Chair Warsh — first public comments → Hawkish signal = gold drops → Dovish surprise = gold bounces Thursday May 28 🔴🔴 BIGGEST DAY: → US GDP Q1 2026 (2nd estimate) → Core PCE Inflation — 14:30 ET (18:30 GMT) → Durable Goods Orders → Initial Jobless Claims → Personal Income + Spending Friday May 29: → Chicago PMI → Fed speakers ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🏛️ WHY THURSDAY MAY 28 IS CRITICAL: Three key releases at 14:30 ET (18:30 GMT) Thursday: GDP Q1 2026 (2nd estimate): → Weak = recession fear = gold ↑ → Strong = Fed hike = gold ↓ Core PCE Inflation: → The Fed's FAVOURITE gauge → Cool PCE = rate cuts possible = gold ↑ → Hot PCE = rate hike = gold ↓ Jobless Claims: → Rising = recession = gold ↑ → Falling = strong economy = gold ↓ All three at the same time. Thursday = most important day for gold in the next 4 weeks. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 EARNINGS THIS WEEK: Tuesday May 26: 💻 CrowdStrike (CRWD) → Cybersecurity + AI security demand Thursday May 28: 🔌 Broadcom (AVGO) → Semiconductor + AI networking → Most important earnings after NVIDIA → Beat = AI cycle confirmed = risk-on → Miss = AI slowdown fears = risk-off ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🏦 NEW FED CHAIR WARSH — KEY WATCH: Kevin Warsh officially takes over. Known as inflation hawk. Trump wants lower rates. These two goals conflict. First Warsh statements this week set the tone for: → Gold direction in June → Dollar strength → Rate hike probability ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ₿ BITCOIN WARNING: Bitcoin is trading now at $74,659. Below $75,000 psychological level. This is concerning: → $1.25B+ ETF outflows this week → Hot inflation = no rate cuts → Risk-off environment → $75,000 = must hold as support Break below $74,000 = test of $70,000-72,000 possible. Watch Bitcoin this week — it's signalling broader risk-off mood. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ MONDAY WARNING: US AND UK both closed Monday. Double holiday = very thin liquidity. Do NOT trade Sunday night or Monday morning. Wait for Tuesday open. First real data: Consumer Confidence + potential Warsh comments Tuesday. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚖️ OVERALL BIAS: NEUTRAL → BEARISH Gold at $4,509 — $9 above $4,500 ⚠️ Far below EMA 50 ($4,680) ⚠️ FOMC hawks confirmed ⚠️ Bitcoin below $75,000 ⚠️ New hawkish Fed Chair ⚠️ Hot CPI + PPI ⚠️ BUT: $4,500 support still holding ✅ Thursday GDP + PCE = major wildcard ✅ Long-term targets intact ✅ Dow above 50,000 = economy holds ✅ Thursday May 28 decides everything. PCE cool = gold saved → $4,630 PCE hot = $4,247 test incoming. Follow AI_advisor_ for daily signals on Gold, Oil & Bitcoin. 🎯 ⚠️ Educational purposes only. Manage your risk. Trade safe. 🙏