Siddaramaiah out, Shivakumar's moment arrivesThe process of power transition in Karnataka has finally been set in motion. Siddaramaiah has resigned as chief minister, taking the first formal step towards the much-anticipated change of guard in the state.Standing shoulder-to-shoulder with D K Shivakumar and Karnataka home minister G Parameshwara in a major show of unity, Siddaramaiah announced his resignation on Thursday, ending months of speculation over a leadership change in the state.While announcing his resignation, Siddaramaiah said he was stepping down after the Congress high command directed him to do so two days ago.What Siddaramaiah said while announcing resignationD K Shivakumar is finally all set to get the top job, unless Siddaramaiah and his supporters have a "last-minute surprise pushback plan."The two leaders made a good show of bonhomie as they hugged each other at the breakfast meeting called by the chief minister before he stepped down. Shivakumar touched Siddaramaiah’s feet to seek the senior leader’s blessings. All good so far.Bonhomie at breakfast meetingBut the big question is: Is this finally the end of Congress’s "nataka" in Karnataka? Or will the power tussle in Karnataka go the Rajasthan way, where Congress lost power to the BJP in 2023 amid infighting between the Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot camps?The bumpy road to truceThe fact that the run-up to this truce deal has been bumpy and raucous may perhaps keep the Congress central leadership deeply worried.Ever since the party’s sweeping victory in the 2023 assembly polls, the power tussle between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar has hung over the Congress government like the sword of Damocles.DK Shivakumar, who as the state Congress president had played a textbook role in orchestrating the 2023 electoral victory, wanted the chief minister's chair from the word go. However, Siddaramaiah, armed with immense governance experience and holding the backing of a clear majority of the newly elected MLAs, was in no mood to give in. Following an intense post-result deadlock during which Shivakumar remained aggressively incommunicado, a compromise was eventually brokered. Shivakumar relented and accepted the deputy CM’s post.Karnataka power tussle: The timelineThis was truce deal No. 1. Siddaramaiah gained the throne, and Shivakumar made the compromise.However, this initial truce did absolutely nothing to bury the factional fight. While Shivakumar’s supporters never missed an opportunity to assert that a strict 2.5-year rotational arrangement was in place, Siddaramaiah’s backers countered the claim with full force. In fact, Siddaramaiah himself repeatedly and publicly asserted on several occasions that he would complete his full five-year tenure.All the while, the Congress high command looked the other way, choosing to let these fundamental differences fester until they inevitably reached a tipping point.And that tipping point came as soon as Siddaramaiah completed his two-and-a-half years tenure as the chief minister. The simmering tensions surfaced again. Shivakumar for the first time made the rotational CM talk public and targeted Siddaramaiah for reneging on the deal. He did not take direct names but the message was loud and clear. What followed was an open war of words between the two leaders much to the embarrassment of the Congress leadership.Shivakumar started the duel with a cryptic message on X: "WORD POWER IS WORLD POWER. The biggest force in the world is to keep one’s word. Be it a judge, president or anyone else including myself, everyone has to walk the talk. Word power is world power."Siddaramaiah was quick to respond and used the same words to take potshots at his deputy. "A Word is not power unless it betters the World for the people. The mandate given by the people of Karnataka is not a moment, but a responsibility that lasts five full years. The Congress party, including me, is walking the talk for our people with compassion, consistency, and courage. Our Word to Karnataka is not a slogan, it means the World to us," Siddaramaiah wrote on X.Siddaramaiah then went on to list the promises that he had fulfilled as the chief minister in his two tenures leading to an open social media "word" war between the two top state leaders.And this brings us to truce deal No. 2. This time Shivakumar has gained and Siddaramaiah has had to make the compromise. But even as the transition process has formally begun, there are indications that the outgoing chief minister may not have entirely given up the fight.Siddaramaiah had reportedly pushed for a Congress Legislature Party (CLP) meeting to formally elect his successor, a move widely seen within the party as an attempt to slow down Shivakumar’s elevation.There was also discussion within Congress circles that a formal CLP election could potentially throw up Karnataka home minister G Parameshwara as a compromise candidate, especially if sections of MLAs rallied behind the senior Dalit leader. Such a development would not only stall Shivakumar’s elevation but also allow Siddaramaiah to claim credit for facilitating Karnataka’s first Dalit chief minister from the Congress.D K Shivakumar, Siddaramaiah and G ParameshwaraAt the heart of Siddaramaiah camp’s argument was the claim that the outgoing chief minister continued to enjoy overwhelming support within the legislature party. Congress leaders familiar with the discussions indicated that Siddaramaiah had submitted a list of 108 MLAs to underline his political strength within the party.Siddaramaiah may have agreed to step down, but he is far too politically influential within Karnataka Congress to be sidelined easily. For the Congress high command, this perhaps remains the biggest challenge.Sandeep Shastri, political commentator and vice-president of Nitte University, feels the Congress delayed the transition perhaps longer than it should have.“I have been maintaining for the last six months that the change in Karnataka was not an ‘if’ question but a ‘when’ question,” Shastri said, arguing that had the Congress acted at the two-and-a-half-year mark itself, it could have avoided much of the tension and uncertainty that played out over the past few months.Shastri also suggested that Siddaramaiah was unlikely to completely fade from Karnataka politics despite stepping down. “He will remain an important power centre in Karnataka and that is something the new chief minister will need to deal with,” he said.According to Shastri, Shivakumar may have finally got the post he was promised, but managing the internal dynamics of the Congress and balancing competing interests within the party would remain his biggest challenge going forward.Standing shoulder-to-shoulder with D K Shivakumar and Karnataka home minister G Parameshwara in a major show of unity, Siddaramaiah announced his resignation.However, political commentator Prof Harish Ramaswamy argued that the Congress high command may have acted at the right time to ensure a smoother transition.“The current development in Karnataka is a timely move by the Congress high command that benefits generational shift in the party,” Ramaswamy said, adding that the way Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar conducted themselves had restored “value-based politics” in the state.He also dismissed speculation that the transition could weaken the Congress government or automatically benefit the BJP. “Though there may be some aberrations, the shift is likely to be smoother,” he said, adding that Shivakumar could emerge as a more “innovative” chief minister than many expect.Congress’s Rajasthan experienceThe problem for Congress is that Siddaramaiah is not just a mass leader with a strong following in the state, he is also the party’s biggest OBC face in Karnataka. If Siddaramaiah decides to play truant, it could hurt the Congress’s prospects in the run-up to the 2028 assembly elections.The Congress would be wary because of the electoral consequences it faced in Rajasthan due to a prolonged leadership tussle between its two state heavyweights ahead of the 2023 assembly elections. The crisis there was similar in many ways. Sachin Pilot, as the then Rajasthan Congress chief, had played a key role in the party’s victory in 2018 and expected to be rewarded with the chief minister’s post. But Ashok Gehlot had both administrative experience and the backing of a larger section of MLAs. The Congress, much like it did in Karnataka in 2023, backed the senior leader and Pilot was told to wait.After a long wait, Pilot revolted with his supporters and a bitter public war broke out between the two camps as the Congress high command struggled to contain the crisis. Reports at the time suggested that Shivakumar and Priyanka Gandhi played a key role in ensuring that Pilot did not leave the party. Pilot then, much like Shivakumar now, perhaps lacked the numbers among MLAs but remained politically too important for the Congress to ignore.But unlike Pilot, Shivakumar has eventually managed to secure the backing of the Congress high command, reportedly with Priyanka Gandhi playing a key role. The Congress eventually lost power in Rajasthan and Pilot is still waiting for a bigger role in the state.The Congress high command would hope that the transition in Karnataka is smooth and the truce holds till the next assembly elections in 2028.The challenge ahead ...There were indications that Rahul Gandhi was, for a long time, reluctant to replace Siddaramaiah despite pressure from sections within the party who believed a leadership change could politically benefit the Congress. According to reports, Siddaramaiah told Rahul Gandhi that he had no ambition to move to national politics. Rahul, however, is learnt to have insisted that he wanted the veteran OBC leader to play a bigger role nationally and strengthen the Congress at the national level.There is a possibility that Siddaramaiah could eventually be moved to the Rajya Sabha. Such a move could potentially trigger changes at the national level too, with Siddaramaiah being seen by many within the party as a possible contender for the leader of opposition role in Rajya Sabha as Congress looks to strengthen its OBC outreach nationally.Thus the challenge for the Congress is not merely about changing a chief minister. It is also about maintaining harmony between the two power centres, balancing caste equations and regional loyalties, and ensuring that the roadmap to the 2028 electoral battle in Karnataka does not remain bumpy.