RIVER AKIRA DAVIS, CATIE EDMONDSON, ESHE NELSON, PETER S. GOODMAN, SUHASINI RAJ2026年5月28日卡塔尔的一座液化天然气生产设施，摄于战前。 Picture Alliance, via Getty ImagesAt the onset of the war in the Middle East, industry officials and experts warned that the closure of one of the world’s most vital maritime waterways would trigger acute shortages of oil, gas and other critical commodities. Three months into the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, those warnings are materializing across the globe.中东战争爆发之初，业内官员和专家就警告称，全球最重要的海上航道之一一旦关闭，将引发石油、天然气及其他关键大宗商品的严重短缺。如今，在霍尔木兹海峡被封锁近三个月后，这些警告正在全球各地成为现实。Before the war, roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne crude oil and a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas passed through the strait. The region is also among the world’s largest suppliers of products derived from oil and gas, including fertilizer and naphtha, a liquid used in everything from plastic wrap to industrial inks.战争前，全球约四分之一的海运原油以及五分之一的液化天然气都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。该地区还是全球最大的石油与天然气衍生品供应地之一，包括化肥以及石脑油——一种用于塑料保鲜膜、工业油墨等多种产品的液态物质。Much of the world has largely experienced the crisis through price shocks. Physical supply shortages have afflicted economies across Asia. Developing countries everywhere, especially in Asia, have been hit the hardest, as shortfalls of oil, gas and their derivatives have strained everything from farming and cooking to medical imaging. Governments across the region have rationed power, drawn down emergency stockpiles and scrambled for alternative supplies.对世界大部分地区而言，人们主要是通过价格暴涨感受到这场危机的。亚洲多个经济体已经出现了实实在在的供应短缺。世界各地的发展中国家（尤其是亚洲国家）受到的冲击最为严重，石油、天然气及其衍生品的短缺正在冲击农业生产、日常烹饪乃至医学影像等各个领域。该地区的各国政府纷纷限电、动用应急储备，并四处寻找替代供应来源。“It’s not just a price shock, it’s explicit shortages,” said Krishna Srinivasan, a director at the International Monetary Fund. “In the context of shortages, industry scales back, people lose their jobs, and this has a secondary impact on growth,” Mr. Srinivasan said.“这不只是价格冲击，而是切实的商品短缺，”国际货币基金组织的一位主任克里希纳·斯里尼瓦桑说。“短缺之下，工业收缩，就业减少，继而对经济增长产生二次冲击。”Here is the state of play in the major energy and commodity supply crunches gripping Asia and the rest of the world.以下是困扰亚洲乃至全球的重大能源和大宗商品供应危机的最新状况。Oil and Liquefied Natural Gas石油与液化天然气Countries are tapping reserves and forcing blackouts.各国纷纷动用储备，实施限电。停泊在阿曼附近霍尔木兹海峡的船只。The most visible early supply shocks struck crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Both fuels depend on passage through the Strait of Hormuz from major producers like Kuwait and Qatar, with most shipments bound for buyers in Asia.最显著的早期供应冲击发生在原油和液化天然气上。这两种燃料的主要出口国包括科威特与卡塔尔，它们都要经霍尔木兹海峡运送出去，买家大多位于亚洲。Japan, which typically sources more than 90 percent of its oil from the region, saw crude imports plummet 67 percent in April. Singapore, which generates 95 percent of its electricity from natural gas and relies on Qatar for roughly a quarter of its liquefied natural gas imports, has issued sweeping energy-conservation guidelines across commercial districts.日本通常从该地区采购90%以上的石油，该国4月份的原油进口量骤降了67%。新加坡95%的电力来自天然气，约四分之一的液化天然气进口依赖卡塔尔，现在新加坡已在商业区推出大规模节能措施。While wealthier nations like Japan, Singapore and China can tap strategic reserves and outbid rivals for alternative gas supplies, developing economies have suffered the deepest disruptions. Shortfalls of gas for power generation and oil refined into diesel and gasoline have forced governments to reduce demand.日本、新加坡和中国等较富裕的国家可以动用战略储备，并以高于竞争对手的价格购买替代天然气来源，发展中经济体则遭受了最为严重的冲击。用于发电的天然气和精炼成柴油和汽油的石油短缺已经迫使多国政府压缩需求。In Bangladesh, starved of affordable natural gas, the government has imposed widespread rolling blackouts. Vietnam has rolled out mandatory energy rationing in industrial hubs. The Philippines declared a state of emergency in late March, shifting government operations to a shortened workweek and limiting air-conditioning in public buildings.在孟加拉国，由于缺乏价格可承受的天然气，政府实施了大范围轮流停电。越南则在工业中心推行强制性的能源配给。菲律宾于3月底宣布进入紧急状态，政府部门缩短工作周，并限制公共建筑的空调使用。Helium氦气Tech companies are paying top dollar.科技公司正在支付高价。The war has also upended markets for products extracted from natural gas. Among the most critical is helium, an odorless element produced as a byproduct of natural gas extraction. Before the war, Qatar supplied roughly one-third of the world’s helium.这场战争还颠覆了从天然气中提取的产品的市场。其中最关键的是氦气，这是一种没有味道的成分，是天然气开采的副产品。战前，卡塔尔约供应全球三分之一的氦气。Chip manufacturers use it to cool machines that etch circuits onto silicon wafers. Pharmaceutical companies rely on it for quality checks of their products. In magnetic resonance imaging machines, helium cools superconducting magnets.芯片制造商使用氦气来冷却在硅片上蚀刻电路的机器。制药公司依赖氦气进行产品质量检查。在磁共振成像机器中，氦气被用于冷却超导磁体。Richard Brook, chief executive of Garrison Ventures, a helium industry consultancy, said that with Qatari supplies curtailed and Russian shipments faltering, available helium was likely to be prioritized for manufacturers willing to pay top dollar — particularly semiconductor giants in South Korea and Taiwan, as well as American health care companies.氦气行业咨询公司Garrison Ventures的CEO理查德·布鲁克表示，由于卡塔尔供应减少、俄罗斯出口陷入停滞，现有氦气很可能会优先供应给那些愿意支付高价的制造商，特别是韩国与台湾的大型半导体企业，以及美国的医疗公司。That leaves less wealthy buyers grappling with shortages. In India, helium prices have already doubled, said Pavan Choudary, chairman of the Medical Technology Association of India. Mr. Choudary said the shortage posed an acute threat to smaller, rural hospital networks just as the country was “extending quality imaging to districts that have never had it.”这意味着经济实力较弱的买家将面临更严峻的短缺。印度医疗技术协会主席帕万·乔杜里表示，印度市场的氦气价格已翻了一番。他指出，短缺对规模较小的农村医院网络构成严峻威胁，而印度目前正努力“把高质量医疗影像推广到过去从未拥有过这些设备的地区”。Fertilizer化肥Planting crops in depleted soil as prices soar.土地贫瘠，而化肥价格却在飙升。越南的水稻收割场景。波斯湾是化肥的重要来源，这场冲突威胁着全球粮食供应。The Persian Gulf is also a vital source of fertilizer, making the war a threat to global food supply. Five major exporters — Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain — collectively supply more than one-third of the world’s stocks of urea, the dominant form of nitrogen fertilizer.波斯湾也是全球重要的化肥产地，这场战争因此已对全球粮食供应构成威胁。伊朗、沙特、卡塔尔、阿联酋、巴林五大出口国合计供应全球逾三分之一的尿素——这是最主要的氮肥形式。In the war’s first weeks, the strait’s closure stranded fertilizer raw materials in the Persian Gulf. Since then, damaged and idle production facilities have caused shortages of key components, driving up prices and slowing fertilizer production.战争最初几周，霍尔木兹海峡关闭导致大量化肥原料滞留在波斯湾。之后，受损或停摆的生产设施进一步造成关键原材料短缺，推高价格并拖慢化肥生产。Urea prices have climbed 80 percent since February, according to World Bank data. The Mosaic Company, an American agricultural giant, recently cited the soaring sulfur costs as a factor in its decision to reduce phosphate fertilizer production at plants in the United States and Brazil.根据世界银行数据，自2月以来，尿素价格已上涨80%。美国农业巨头美盛公司最近表示，硫磺价格飙升迫使其减少美国与巴西工厂的磷肥产量。The Food and Agriculture Organization has flagged South Asia as a region facing “extreme risk.” Farmers in countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh — unable to outbid wealthier nations for alternative cargoes — have been forced to plant crops in depleted soil. Also in danger are Africa’s smallholder farmers, who grow 70 percent of the food for sub-Saharan Africa, according to the African Development Bank.联合国粮农组织已将南亚列为面临“极端风险”的地区。巴基斯坦、孟加拉国等国的农民因无力与富裕国家竞价抢购替代货源，只能在肥力下降的土地上继续种植作物。同样岌岌可危的还有非洲的小农户，据非洲开发银行数据，他们生产了撒哈拉以南非洲地区70%的粮食。Naphtha石脑油Nearing the ‘red zone’ of shortages.短缺正在逼近“红色警戒区”。Oil shortages have rippled through refined products such as naphtha, a petroleum derivative used so widely in manufacturing that it is often referred to as the “flour” of industry.石油短缺已经波及石脑油等精炼产品。石脑油是石油衍生品，由于在制造业用途极广，素有工业“面粉”之称。Shortages have been especially pronounced in East Asia. Japan and South Korea rely heavily on imports from Qatar and Kuwait, which have been unable to export because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Even naphtha processed by Asian refineries often comes from crude shipped through the strait.东亚的短缺尤其严重。日本和韩国严重依赖从卡塔尔和科威特进口的石脑油，但霍尔木兹海峡的关闭导致这些国家无法出口。即使是由亚洲炼油厂加工的石脑油，往往也提炼自经由该海峡运抵的原油。In Japan, shortages have hit the printing industry, prompting major consumer brands like the snack giant Calbee to strip the color from packaging to conserve naphtha-based inks. In South Korea, major producers have cut output of naphtha-based chemicals used in plastics.在日本，短缺已冲击印刷行业，促使卡乐比等知名消费品品牌纷纷简化包装颜色，以节省基于石脑油制造的油墨。在韩国，多家大型企业已削减用于塑料生产的石脑油化工产品产量。Experts, including Haruhiko Sakaino, a former oil-refining official and adviser to Japan’s Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, said the number of Japanese companies entering the “red zone” of production disruptions was likely to spike by June.曾任炼油行高管、现为日本资源能源厅顾问的境野春彦等专家表示，到6月，进入生产中断“红色警戒区”的日本企业数量很可能大幅攀升。Liquefied petroleum gas液化石油气Rationing gas at restaurants so families can cook.餐馆定量用气，确保家庭用气。等待加气的印度民众。印度每年消耗的液化石油气中，有一半以上依赖国外进口。The Middle East is one of the world’s main exporters of liquefied petroleum gas, or L.P.G., a mixture of propane and butane widely used for cooking and heating in developing countries. The fuel is produced either by refining crude oil or from natural gas streams.中东是世界上主要的液化石油气出口地区之一，液化石油气是丙烷与丁烷的混合物，在发展中国家广泛用于烹饪和取暖。这种燃料既可以通过原油炼制获得，也可以从天然气中提取。Since the outbreak of the war, India has emerged as the epicenter of the resulting fuel crisis. The world’s second-largest L.P.G. importer behind China, India depends on foreign sources for more than half of the 31 million metric tons it consumes annually. Historically, most of those shipments transited the strait.自战争爆发以来，印度已成为这场燃料危机的中心。印度是全球第二大液化石油气进口国，仅次于中国，它每年消耗3100万吨，其中一半以上依赖进口。从历史上看，这些进口大部分都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。Even as the government scrambles for alternative sources outside the Middle East, commercial allocations have fallen to roughly 70 percent of prewar levels, India’s Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas said on Monday.印度石油和天然气部周一表示，即便政府正四处寻找中东以外的替代来源，商业供气量已降至战前水平的70%左右。Jet fuel航空燃油Higher prices attract new suppliers.价格上涨吸引新供应商入场。Europe has been at the forefront of concerns about a looming kerosene shortage. That’s because it is the largest buyer of jet fuel shipped through the strait.欧洲一直处于航空煤油短缺预警的前沿，因为欧洲是经霍尔木兹海峡运输的航空燃油的最大买家。航空燃油价格上涨引发了人们对欧洲可能出现燃油短缺的担忧。欧洲是经霍尔木兹海峡运输的航空燃油的最大买家。The region has so far not run out of jet fuel, because surging prices have given the United States and other major suppliers an incentive to reroute shipments to European buyers. Elevated prices have also prompted European refineries to boost jet fuel production.到目前为止，欧洲尚未耗尽航空燃油，因为价格飙升促使美国和其他主要供应商改道向欧洲买家发货。价格高涨也促使欧洲炼油厂提高航空燃油的产量。Still, those same high costs have forced major carriers, including Lufthansa and KLM, to cut flights. And higher fares have deterred some travelers. As a result, European air traffic is about 5 percent lower than it otherwise would have been, the International Energy Agency estimates.然而，居高不下的成本已迫使汉莎、荷航等主要航司削减航班，高昂票价也令部分旅客望而却步。国际能源署估计，这已使欧洲航空客运量较正常水平下降约5%。River Akira Davis常驻东京，报道日本经济和商业新闻。Catie Edmondson为《纽约时报》报道国会新闻。Eshe Nelson是《纽约时报》记者，常驻伦敦，报道经济和商业新闻。Peter S. Goodman是一名报道全球经济的记者。他撰写有关经济和地缘政治的交叉议题，尤其关注着对普通人及其生活生计的影响。Suhasini Raj是一名常驻新德里的记者，自2014年起未时报报道印度新闻。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。