ANUPREETA DAS2026年5月28日国务卿鲁比奥与印度外交部长苏杰生周二在新德里准备签署一份谅解备忘录。 Julia Demaree Nikhinson/Agence France-Presse, via Getty ImagesSecretary of State Marco Rubio visited New Delhi this week to reassure India of its importance, but analysts mostly saw the trip as little more than a salve applied to deep wounds inflicted by the Trump administration’s policies on trade and immigration, and the war in Iran.国务卿马可·鲁比奥本周访问了新德里，旨在向印度重申该国的重要性，但分析人士大多认为，此行不过是对特朗普政府在贸易、移民政策以及伊朗战争方面所造成的深深创伤起到一点慰藉作用。President Trump’s blow-hot, blow-cold approach to India is a stark contrast from that of previous U.S. presidents, who sought to maintain good relations with India. India needs civil and stable ties with the United States, its biggest export market, and doesn’t want to attract the ire of Mr. Trump, which could disrupt its economy or jeopardize its ability to meet its enormous energy needs.特朗普总统对印度忽冷忽热的态度与此前寻求与印度保持良好关系的历届美国总统形成了鲜明对比。美国是印度最大的出口市场，印度需要与它保持体面且稳定的关系，并且不希望惹怒特朗普，因为这可能会扰乱印度的经济，或危及印度满足本国巨大能源需求的能力。India, which imports 90 percent of its crude oil, had come under pressure last summer after Mr. Trump slapped a punitive 25 percent tariff on India for buying Russian oil. It was lifted in February after India agreed to limit purchases of Russian oil. The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz also greatly reduced India’s access to oil, prompting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to ask his fellow Indians to work from home to save fuel.印度90%的原油依赖进口。去年夏天，由于印度购买俄罗斯石油，特朗普对印度征收了25%的惩罚性关税，这让印度承受了巨大压力。今年2月，在印度同意限制购买俄罗斯石油后，该关税被取消。伊朗战争以及霍尔木兹海峡的关闭也大大减少了印度的石油供应，促使总理纳伦德拉·莫迪呼吁印度民众在家办公以节约燃料。The main issue is a “lack of consistency that we have seen in the Trump administration’s engagement with India and a lack of a public commitment to this relationship,” said Harsh V. Pant, a visiting professor of international relations at King’s College London.伦敦国王学院国际关系客座教授哈什·潘特表示，主要问题在于“我们看到特朗普政府在与印度的接触中缺乏连贯性，并且缺乏对这种双边关系的公开承诺”。Mr. Trump has upended many of India’s assumptions about the nature of its relationship with the United States: The bedrock was an economic partnership, with a marginal role for Pakistan and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Trump’s tariffs, his close relationship with Pakistan’s leaders and his seeming desire to cultivate stronger ties with China have called all of those assumptions into question.特朗普颠覆了印度对美印关系本质的许多预设：双方关系的基础是经济伙伴关系——巴基斯坦问题扮演边缘角色，以及两国在印太地区的合作。然而，特朗普的关税政策、他与巴基斯坦领导人的亲密关系，以及他似乎渴望与中国建立更紧密关系的做法使所有这些预设都受到了质疑。That has left India without a framework for engagement, Mr. Pant said.潘特表示，这使得印度在双边接触中失去了框架。本月早些时候，美国总统特朗普在北京与中国国家主席习近平共同出席国宴。Mr. Trump’s recent meeting with President Xi Jinping of China has added to India’s worries about its place in U.S. foreign policy. Several U.S. administrations maintained ties with India, the world’s most populous country and one of its fastest-growing economies, because they saw it as a counterweight to China. India was happy to play that role, especially under Mr. Modi, who had cultivated a close relationship with Mr. Trump in his first term in office.特朗普最近与中国国家主席习近平的会晤加剧了印度对其在美国外交政策中地位的担忧。印度是世界上人口最多的国家，也是经济增长最快的国家之一，历届美国政府都与其保持着联系，因为他们将印度视为制衡中国的力量。印度很乐意扮演这个角色，特别是在莫迪执政期间，他在特朗普的第一个任期内与特朗普培养了密切的关系。India is concerned that it would lose its value to the United States and become dispensable once the U.S. relationship with China stabilizes, said Constantino Xavier, an expert on South Asia at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress, a research institute based in New Delhi.位于新德里的研究机构社会与经济进步中心南亚问题专家康斯坦丁诺·沙维尔表示，印度担心，一旦美国与中国的关系稳定下来，印度就会对美国失去价值，变得可有可无。Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi’s meeting might not lead to anything, Mr. Xavier said, but it has made Indian officials anxious about becoming the U.S. president’s “backup plan,” to be used as a tool to threaten China when he wants. “The dispensability is increasing, and the utility is decreasing,” he said.沙维尔指出，特朗普与习近平的会晤可能不会产生什么实质结果，但这让印度官员感到焦虑，担心本国沦为美国总统的“备用方案”，在需要时被当作威胁中国的工具。“可替代性在增加，而实用性在降低，”他说。Mr. Rubio insisted during his visit that India was one of America’s “most strategic partners in the world.” Mr. Trump joined Mr. Rubio in doling out praise, dialing in live at a reception in New Delhi on Sunday to call Mr. Modi a “great friend,” and reassure India it could count on him.鲁比奥在访问期间坚称，印度是美国“在世界上最具战略意义的合作伙伴”之一。特朗普也和鲁比奥一道表示赞美，周日通过电话连线参加新德里的一场招待会，称莫迪是“伟大的朋友”，并向印度保证可以指望他。“And anything India wants, they get,” Mr. Trump said.“只要印度想要的，他们都能得到，”特朗普说。Many Indians say they are getting the opposite of what they want. Its students and workers have been hurt by the Trump administration’s immigration restrictions. Mr. Rubio defended the policies at a news conference, insisting that they are “not a policy targeted at Indians.”许多印度人则表示，他们得到的恰恰与他们想要的相反。印度的学生和工人受到了特朗普政府移民限制措施的伤害。鲁比奥在新闻发布会上为这些政策进行了辩护，坚称它们“不是针对印度人的政策”。Beyond the reassuring talk, analysts said, it’s been hard to distill what India secured from America from Mr. Rubio’s visit.分析人士表示，除了让人宽慰的言辞之外，很难从鲁比奥此行中看清印度究竟从美国获得了什么。“The visit was a good painkiller, but some real medicine is needed to revive the relations,” Dr. Xavier said. That medicine would involve a “fundamental political reset between both leaders,” he added, such as a visit by Mr. Trump to India or significant breakthroughs in trade and defense deals.“这次访问是一剂很好的止痛药，但要恢复双边关系还需要真材实料的良药，”沙维尔说。他还说，这剂良药将需要“两国领导人之间根本性的政治重置”，例如特朗普访问印度，或在贸易和国防协议上取得重大突破。The two sides did sign a framework agreement to cooperate closely on securing supplies of critical minerals. And India’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday that a U.S. delegation will visit India for another round of trade talks.双方确实签署了一项框架协议，将在确保关键矿产供应方面密切合作。印度商务部周三表示，一个美国代表团将访问印度，进行新一轮贸易谈判。In a measure of its concerns about its relationship with Washington, India has struck several partnerships with other countries, including the European Union trading bloc.为缓解为对印美关系的担忧，印度已经与其他国家（包括欧盟贸易集团）达成了几项伙伴关系。周二，鲁比奥与澳大利亚、印度和日本外长在新德里会晤后向媒体发表讲话。The last day of Mr. Rubio’s visit was dedicated to discussing the Quad, a group of four countries — the United States, India, Japan and Australia — intended to build maritime cooperation and ensure safe routes for commerce in the Indo-Pacific. Although it was never explicitly stated, one of the Quad’s main goals was to be a check on China’s influence in the region.鲁比奥访问的最后一天专门用于讨论四方安全对话。该机制由美国、印度、日本和澳大利亚四国组成，旨在建立海上合作并确保印太地区商业航线的安全。尽管从未明确表述过，但四方安全对话的主要目标之一就是制衡中国在该地区的影响力。Not much appeared to materialize from this week’s daylong Quad summit. Analysts said that the group can only be functional if the United States remains an active participant. With Mr. Trump focused on his priorities in China, his level of interest in the Quad is unclear.本周为期一天的四方安全对话峰会似乎并没有取得多少实质性成果。分析人士表示，只有在美国保持积极参与的情况下，该机制才能发挥作用。由于特朗普专注其对华优先事项，他对四方安全对话的兴趣程度尚不明确。Pragati K.B.对本文有报道贡献。Anupreeta Das为时报报道印度和南亚新闻。她常驻新德里。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。