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Skip to navigationSkip to main content':"";if(r){var a=n.promos.showYahooLogo?"":"yns-no-logo";r=r.replace("{notifOnboardBtnLabel}",n.promos.notifOnboardBtnLabel).replace("{notifOnboardMsg}",n.promos.notifOnboardMsg).replace("{subscriptionTopic}",n.promos.subscriptionTopic).replace("{noLogoClass}",a).replace("{promoLogo}",n.promos.promoLogo)}var s=t.newCount>n.panel.maxCount?t.newCount:"",c=n.panel.notificationCenterPath,l=c?"":R,u=n.panel.headerMsg?"":" "+R,d=c?U:"",p=void 0;t.count?p=t.markup:p='{emptyPanelMsg}'.replace("{emptyPanelMsg}",n.panel.emptyPanelMsg);return e=e.replace("{notifMarkup}",p).replace("{promoMarkup}",r).replace("{hideClass}",l).replace("{notifCenterLink}",c).replace("{paddingClass}",d).replace("{headerMsg}",n.panel.headerMsg).replace("{hideHeaderClass}",u).replace(/{notificationCenterNavMsg}/g,n.panel.notificationCenterNavMsg).replace(/{newCount}/g,s)}},{key:"render",value:function(e,t){var n=this;if(n._panelNode){var o=void 0,i=n._panelNode,r=void 0,a=void 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See our Advertiser Disclosure.Ivana Pino · Senior WriterMMichelle Coffey · Senior Editor, Personal FinanceUpdated Tue, May 26, 2026 at 6:48 PM GMT+2 7 min readRelief at the gas pump remains uncertain amid conflicting signals on Iran, and as elevated oil prices and tightening global supply threaten to push up fuel costs.Gas prices were down slightly in 40 states over the past week, as optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran agreement pushed oil prices lower. However, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains at risk, and drivers could see the most expensive summer at the pump in years if it remains closed, according to a GasBuddy forecast.“Americans are going to pay billions more to get where they’re going this summer, and even after the Strait reopens, it could take a year or more for prices to fully recover,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “This is the most volatile summer at the pump in years.”Oil futures are hovering just below $100 a barrel as the U.S. and Iran remain locked in a standoff, and shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has returned to a standstill.Global energy prices have remained elevated since the start of the war on Feb. 28, and Americans continue to feel the pain of skyrocketing gas prices amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.Consumer prices rose in April from a year earlier as gas prices continued to spike; gas was up 28% while fuel oil rose 54%. In March, CPI data showed a 21.2% month-over-month increase in gasoline prices — the largest monthly increase since the CPI was first published in 1967.The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline is above $4, and the average cost of diesel continues to creep up toward $6 per gallon.In April, news of a ceasefire briefly positively impacted global markets and oil prices, but drivers have yet to feel any meaningful relief. The latest standoff between the U.S. and Iran is raising fears about an escalating conflict and longer supply disruption.De Haan notes that broader price volatility is likely to persist as oil reacts to renewed geopolitical tensions and amid conflicting signals regarding an agreement between the U.S. and Iran.“As a result, gasoline and diesel prices are likely to remain volatile,” De Haan said, “....and any sustained increase in oil prices could begin pushing retail fuel prices higher again in the weeks ahead.”Read more: Gas tops $4 and diesel is over $5. How an extended war with Iran could push prices higher.The ‘rockets and feathers’ phenomenon, explainedChanges in crude-oil prices have the power to impact gas prices fairly quickly; however, the comedown from a gasoline price spike isn’t always immediate.While oil prices are certainly a key indicator of how gas prices may increase or decrease, it is just one of many factors that can play a role in how much you pay at the pump. Other factors, such as refining costs, disruptions in gasoline distribution, and retailers' price markups, can slow the rate at which gas prices return to normal after a spike.“There is a saying that pump prices rise like a rocket and fall like a feather, and that holds,” said David Doherty, head of natural resources research at BloombergNEF. “It takes about three weeks for crude price rises to be fully felt in the price of gasoline prices, and it can take as much time for them to decline as refiners face an uncertain landscape when it comes to the price of crude, their main ingredient.”Doherty says prices will spike very quickly if the ceasefire breaks down.“Markets are already very apprehensive about the developments in the Gulf, and at $95-$100 per barrel, they are pricing in some skepticism,” Doherty said. “If the world were not disrupted by this, we would expect the fair value of Brent oil to be closer to $65 per barrel.”So, what will it take for gas prices to fall?A resolution to the war in the Middle East and a permanent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would be needed to begin regulating volatility in the oil market, experts say.On April 17, oil futures fell after Iran’s foreign minister posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz was now “completely open” to commercial shipping traffic during the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, a major development that could help ease supply fears.As oil tumbled 10% following the announcement, De Haan posted on X that gas prices could start to come down over the next few weeks.“This could accelerate sending fuel prices lower starting this weekend with the national average likely falling below $4/gal to perhaps $3.65-$3.85 with diesel falling to $4.85-$5.15/gal in 3-4 weeks and could continue for a couple weeks barring any re-escalation,” De Haan wrote.“I still tend to believe that things could normalize 3 to 6 months from now. Our previous 2026 fuel outlook called for gas prices falling below the $3 mark later this year,” De Haan said in an earlier interview with Yahoo Finance. He said that generally speaking, it only takes a couple of days for oil price changes to be passed through to the retail level.However, Iran soon reversed course on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and as volatility in the oil market continues, one expert says it may be a while before gas prices settle. As of late May, the U.S. and Iran are stuck in a standoff over negotiations with no end in sight."Gas prices are still running on adrenaline, not fundamentals. The more excitement, the higher the spike, with crude driving roughly half the move,” said Maksim Sonin, an energy executive who works with Stanford University’s Center for Fuels of the Future. “No one is rushing to be the cheapest in town. Margins tend to expand across the chain while the window is open. Some relief may come, but it will likely be location-specific, with weeks stretching into months, to settle. And longer still if another wave of adrenaline is around the corner."Read more: Best credit cards for gasMeasures are being taken to ease the burden of gas prices for AmericansHere at home, steps are being taken at the federal level to ease the financial burden of higher gas prices on everyday Americans.This includes the government’s emergency EPA waivers, which allow nationwide sales of E15, gasoline blended with 15% ethanol, and the removal of all federal impediments to selling E10, gasoline blended with 10% ethanol, across the country. The EPA says this move will prevent disruption in America’s fuel supply by keeping E15 on the market and giving Americans more fuel options.Additionally, in March, the Trump administration ordered the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) alongside the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency, who unanimously agreed to release a total of 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves to address the global disruption.Read more: