Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth had intensifiedThe economy had already been weakening, held back by persistent uncertaintySuch weakness could persist well beyond the end of the conflictThe energy price shock and associated supply disruption posed a dilemma for monetary policySo far, there was little evidence that the increase in energy prices was generating second-round effectsHowever, the probability of such effects would increase as the duration of the conflict increasedOn the consumer side too, it was still too early for second-round effects to be visibleThe current situation of a classical negative supply shock was different from the situation in 2022Maintaining price stability might necessitate tighter monetary policy to keep inflation expectations in checkPolicymakers emphasised that they could afford to gather further information before deciding to actBy June, more information on the impact of the energy shock would be availableThere is also likely to be more clarity on the duration of the conflict by thenA number of members noted that the decision was a close call and that they would not have opposed raising rates at the current meeting had this been on the tableIncreasing interest rates at the current meeting would have sent an even stronger signal of determinationThe option value of waiting to raise policy rates had decreased since the last meetingIn spite of all the concerns, all members were willing to rally behind the decision to keep policy rates unchangedThere was no acute urgency for a rate hike at the current meetingThat so long as the communication stressed on the firm commitment to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilised at the target in the medium-termFull accountWhat is interesting is the part highlighted in bold. It doesn't point to a broad consensus of wanting to push for a rate hike back then I guess but nonetheless it does provide some insight into the governing council's thinking. It seems that a rate hike next month is all but certain given the circumstances. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.