The Day Ahead - US PCE dataBRITISH POUND VS US DOLLARTRADENATION:GBPUSDTradeNationMarkets head into Thursday focused squarely on the US growth and inflation mix, with the April PCE report the key release of the day. Core PCE is expected to remain sticky, while personal income and spending data will provide another read on the resilience of the US consumer. Durable goods orders and new home sales will also help shape expectations for Q2 momentum, while weekly jobless claims remain important for signs of any labour market softening. For rates markets, today’s data could influence Fed pricing significantly after recent volatility in Treasury yields. Stronger-than-expected inflation or spending numbers would likely reinforce the “higher for longer” narrative and support the dollar and yields, particularly ahead of the US 7-year Treasury auction later today. Conversely, softer PCE data could trigger a relief rally in bonds and support equities, especially growth and tech sectors. Central bank speakers will remain in focus throughout the session. Multiple Fed officials including Jefferson, Williams, Goolsbee and Musalem may offer guidance on how policymakers are interpreting the recent inflation and growth backdrop. Markets will be watching closely for any shift in tone regarding the timing of future rate cuts. In Europe, attention turns to the ECB’s account of the April meeting alongside comments from Lane, Schnabel and Cipollone. Investors will look for clues on how confident policymakers are about continuing the easing cycle after recent sticky services inflation across the Eurozone. European sentiment and confidence indicators may also provide insight into whether the regional recovery is stabilising. The BoE’s Lombardelli and Breeden are also due to speak, with UK markets still sensitive to inflation persistence and wage pressures. Meanwhile, the BoC publishes its Financial Stability Report, which may highlight risks tied to household debt and the housing market amid elevated borrowing costs. On the earnings front, results from Costco, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, MongoDB and Dollar Tree will provide another test of consumer demand, enterprise spending and AI-related investment trends. Tech guidance, particularly from Dell regarding AI server demand, could influence broader semiconductor and hardware sentiment. Overall, today’s session is likely to be driven by whether the US data supports the narrative of slowing inflation without a sharp deterioration in growth. A softer PCE print combined with stable spending data would be supportive for risk assets, while any upside inflation surprise could quickly push yields and the dollar higher again, weighing on equities into the close. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.1% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.