CATIE EDMONDSON2026年5月26日一名工人在印度尼西亚帕蒂港搬运冷冻鱼。随着柴油价格上涨，许多船只不再出海。 Willy Kurniawan/ReutersThe Indian rupee and the Philippine peso have fallen to record lows. Japan and South Korea have spent billions propping up their currencies in an attempt to avoid the same fate. The Indonesian rupiah is now weaker than it was at the depths of the Asian financial crisis.印度卢比和菲律宾比索已跌至历史新低。日本和韩国也已耗资数百亿美元支撑本国货币，试图避免遭遇同样的命运。印尼盾比当年亚洲金融危机最严重时期还要疲软。For Asian countries that rely heavily on imported energy, the war in the Middle East has already sent oil prices soaring. Now, they face a knock-on effect that has grown into a crisis of its own: tumbling currency values, battered by rising fuel costs and skittish investors fleeing to the safety of the U.S. dollar.对于严重依赖进口能源的亚洲国家而言，中东的战争已经导致石油价格飙升。如今，它们正面临着一场已演变成独立危机的连锁反应：在燃料成本上涨以及谨慎的投资者纷纷逃向美元这一避风港的打击下，货币价值大幅下跌。To stem the slide, central banks across Asia have repeatedly intervened in currency markets, drawing down foreign exchange reserves they amassed over the years for precisely this kind of moment.为了遏制跌势，亚洲各国央行一再干预外汇市场，动用了多年来正是为了应对这种时刻而积累的外汇储备。Those interventions, which involve selling dollars and buying local currencies, have averted an outright free fall. But with no end to the war in sight, concerns are rising about the long-term costs of riding out the crisis, including how long central banks can keep depleting their reserves if import prices continue to climb.这些干预措施包括抛售美元和买入本币，避免了货币出现彻底的自由落体式暴跌。但由于战争仍看不到尽头，人们日益担忧渡过这场危机的长期成本，包括进口价格继续攀升的情况下，央行还能持续消耗储备多久。“At what pace of reserve drawdown does the ‘We have large reserves’ argument begin to lose its reassuring quality?” asked Sana Ur Rehman, a financial market analyst at EBC Financial Group.“外汇储备究竟要以怎样的速度流失，‘我们拥有巨额储备’这一论调才会开始失去安抚作用？”EBC金融集团的金融市场分析师萨纳·乌尔·雷赫曼问道。Ordinary people across Asia are beginning to feel the effects of weakening currencies, especially in the nations hit the hardest by the energy shock, including India, Indonesia and the Philippines. When currencies sag, imports — from fuel to food — become more expensive. Those rising prices tend to hit poorer families the hardest, since they spend a larger portion of their income on essentials.整个亚洲的普通民众都开始感受到货币贬值带来的影响，尤其是在受能源冲击最严重的国家，包括印度、印度尼西亚和菲律宾。当货币走弱时，从燃料到食品的进口商品都会变得更加昂贵。物价上涨往往对贫困家庭的打击最大，因为他们将收入中更大比例用于购买生活必需品。马尼拉的一个市场。货币贬值正推高生活必需品的价格，这对将大部分收入用于购买基本生活用品的低收入家庭造成了冲击。德里街头等候公交车的通勤者。燃料和商品价格的上涨给印度经济带来了压力。The throttling of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for oil and gas moving out of the Persian Gulf, has driven oil prices up nearly 50 percent since the war started. Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, is trading around $105 a barrel.霍尔木兹海峡是波斯湾石油和天然气运输的关键航道，该海峡航运受阻导致自战争爆发以来油价上涨近50%。全球原油基准布伦特原油的交易价格目前在每桶105美元左右。Asia remains highly sensitive to swings in the foreign exchange markets, still scarred by the 1997 currency crisis, when currencies across the region collapsed under the weight of a surging dollar.亚洲对外汇市场的波动仍然高度敏感，1997年货币危机的伤痕犹存，当时该地区的货币在美元飙升的重压下纷纷崩盘。Recent moves in the U.S. bond market have compounded the strain. Yields on 30-year U.S. Treasuries rose to a two-decade high above 5 percent, lifting the dollar and accelerating the flow of money away from emerging markets. That has left some Asian central banks in a bind: Raise interest rates to defend their currency and shore up demand for local bonds, at the cost of economic growth, or try to shield economies already under pressure in other ways.近期美国债券市场的走势加剧了这种压力。30年期美国国债收益率攀升至5%以上，创下20年来的新高，这推高了美元，并加速了资金流出新兴市场。这让一些亚洲央行陷入了进退两难的境地：要么以牺牲经济增长为代价，提高利率，保卫本国货币，并提振对本土债券的需求，要么尝试以其他方式保护已经承受压力的经济体。Indonesia’s central bank responded to this dilemma on Wednesday by delivering its first interest rate increase in more than two years, surprising analysts who had not expected the half-point increase. Bank Indonesia’s governor, Perry Warjiyo, said the move was aimed at stabilizing the rupiah and fighting inflation.印度尼西亚央行周三对这一困境作出了回应，宣布了两年多来的首次加息，这让此前未料到会加息0.5个百分点的分析师们感到意外。印尼央行行长佩里·瓦吉约表示，此举旨在稳定印尼盾并对抗通胀。The rupiah has continued to hit new lows, nearing 18,000 to the dollar, despite repeated interventions by the central bank to put a floor under the currency. At a parliamentary hearing this week, Mr. Warjiyo said the central bank had a “more than adequate” stockpile of foreign exchange reserves despite having “increased the dosage” of currency interventions.尽管央行一再进行干预，以图支撑汇率，但印尼盾仍继续创下新低，逼近18000印尼盾兑一美元。在本周的一次议会听证会上，瓦吉约表示，尽管“加大了”货币干预的“剂量”，但央行的外汇储备仍“绰绰有余”。“This is not business as usual,” he said. “We are going all out.” “这不是平时的常规操作，”他说。“我们正在全力以赴。”Asia’s biggest economies are also feeling the squeeze. Consider Japan.亚洲最大的几个经济体也感受到了压力。例如日本。Tokyo stepped in at least twice last month to bolster the falling yen against the dollar, spending what analysts estimate was $63 billion to prop up the currency. Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s top government official overseeing currency policy, has signaled that more interventions could follow, with officials appearing to draw a line at around 160 yen to the dollar, close to 38-year lows.东京上月至少两次出手干预，以提振对美元下跌的日元，据分析师估计，为此耗资630亿美元。日本负责外汇政策的最高政府官员三村淳已暗示可能会有更多干预措施跟进，官员们似乎将一美元兑160日元左右作为底线，这已接近38年来的低点。But the boost proved fleeting. Two weeks after a brief rally, the yen retreated again, surrendering about half its gains.但事实证明，这种提振是短暂的。在短暂回升两周后，日元再次走软，回吐了大约一半的涨幅。“Intervention often serves to buy time,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note, noting that Japan had successfully fortified the yen in 2024 with an intervention. This time around, “we are skeptical the same will occur as soon,” they wrote, predicting more depreciation for the yen.“干预往往是为了争取时间，”高盛的分析师在一份研究报告中写道。他们指出，日本曾在2024年通过干预成功捍卫了日元。但他们写道，这一次，“我们怀疑同样的效果是否会这么快出现”，并预测日元将进一步贬值。东京的一条商业街。亚洲主要经济体也面临着汇率波动的压力，日本已出手干预以支撑日元汇率。停泊在伊朗南部海岸霍尔木兹海峡的船只。这条至关重要的水道承载着大量输往亚洲的石油和天然气出口。In India, the government took steps to ease pressure on the rupee, which has lost more than 6 percent against the dollar this year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on Indians to perform an act of “patriotism” by spending less on gasoline, diesel and imported goods, which would stem the flow of rupees exchanged into dollars.在印度，政府采取措缓解轻卢比面临的压力，今年卢比兑美元已贬值超过6%。印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪呼吁印度民众履行一项“爱国主义”行动，减少在汽油、柴油和进口商品上的支出，以此来遏制卢比兑换成美元的资金流出。Mr. Modi has also implored Indians to adopt austerity measures to curb demand for imported fuel, including canceling nonessential overseas travel, working from home and cutting back on cooking gas use. The Indian government has also more than doubled import tariffs on gold and silver to deter people from buying the precious metals abroad.莫迪还敦促印度人采取紧缩措施以抑制对进口燃料的需求，包括取消非必要的海外旅游、居家办公以及减少烹饪用气。印度政府还将黄金和白银的进口关税提高了一倍以上，以阻止人们在国外购买这些贵金属。“In the current situation, we must place great emphasis on saving foreign exchange,” Mr. Modi said at a political rally this month.“在当前形势下，我们必须高度重视节约外汇，”莫迪本月在一次政治集会上表示。The rupee’s weakness has been compounded by foreign investors pulling money out of India and shifting it into the U.S. dollar or markets abroad that are rising because of enthusiasm for artificial intelligence companies. As a result, the money flowing into the country is slowing just as rising energy prices push up import costs.外国投资者将资金撤出印度，转投美元或因人工智能热潮而上涨的海外市场，这让卢比的疲软雪上加霜。结果，就在能源价格上涨推高进口成本之际，流入该国的资金正在放缓。Somnath Mukherjee, chief investment officer at ASK Wealth Advisors in Mumbai, said the popular trade for foreigners is: “Sell India, buy U.S. and Taiwan.”孟买ASK财富顾问公司的首席投资官索姆纳特·慕克吉表示，外国投资者的热门交易是：“卖出印度，买入美国和台湾。”Indonesia and the Philippines are facing a similar pinch, with foreign investors unwinding their positions in the region as import bills have gotten more expensive.印度尼西亚和菲律宾也面临着类似的窘境，随着进口开支变得更加高昂，外国投资者正削减在该地区的持仓。ANZ, the Australian bank group, said it “will become increasingly difficult to sustain” the level of intervention carried out by India, Indonesia and the Philippines.澳大利亚银行集团澳新银行表示，印度、印尼和菲律宾所进行的干预力度将“变得越来越难以维持”。Indonesia’s and the Philippines’ foreign exchange reserves have each dropped about $8 billion since the beginning of the war in Iran, a 5 percent decline for Indonesia and a 7 percent drop for the Philippines. India’s foreign exchange reserves tumbled by nearly 4 percent, or about $27 billion, as of early May.自伊朗冲突爆发以来，印度尼西亚和菲律宾的外汇储备已各自减少了约80亿美元，其中印尼下降了5%，菲律宾下降了7%。截至5月初，印度的外汇储备缩水了近4%，即减少了约270亿美元。Short-term relief for currencies in the region rests on a single development, economists said.经济学家表示，该地区货币能否获得短期缓解，完全取决于一个关键因素。“We need to see the real end of the war in Iran to see these currencies starting to move up,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, the chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, a French financial firm.“我们需要看到伊朗战争真正结束，才能看到这些货币开始回升，”法国金融公司法国外贸银行亚太区首席经济学家艾丽西亚·加西亚·埃雷罗表示。But the energy shock is likely to leave deeper scars, said Mr. Rehman, the financial markets analyst. After the 1997 financial crisis, Asia built up larger reserves, adopted flexible exchange rates and strengthened its institutions to better withstand future shocks. The war in the Middle East, he said, has exposed a different kind of vulnerability.但金融市场分析师雷赫曼表示，能源冲击可能会留下更深的伤疤。在1997年金融危机之后，亚洲积累了更多的储备，采用了弹性汇率制，并强化了其体制，以便更好地抵御未来的冲击。然而他说，中东的这场战争暴露了一种不同类型的脆弱性。、The question now is whether Asia can reduce its dependence on energy from the Middle East and the U.S. dollar, Mr. Rehman said.雷赫曼说，现在的关键问题在于，亚洲能否减少对中东能源以及美元的依赖。“This crisis did not create that question,” he said. “It simply made ignoring it impossible.”“这场危机并非制造了这个问题，”他说。“它只是让人再也无法对此视而不见。”Catie Edmondson为时报报道国会新闻。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。