USOIL – Pullback Before the Next Leg Higher?Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX:CL1!EdgeTradingJourneyAfter spending more than two years trapped inside a descending channel, WTI Crude Oil has finally delivered a significant structural breakout. The recent rally from the January lows has been aggressive, pushing price back into a major resistance zone around 104–108 USD, an area that previously acted as a distribution range during 2024. From a pure market structure perspective, the longer-term picture remains constructive. The breakout above the descending channel suggests that the multi-year bearish phase may have ended, opening the door for a broader bullish cycle. The rally has been extremely sharp, leaving behind a large monthly imbalance between 70 and 76 USD. Markets rarely move in a straight line, and these inefficiencies often attract price back before the trend resumes. COT Positioning The latest COT report shows Non-Commercial traders still holding a net long position of approximately 161,000 contracts. While the positioning remains bullish overall, recent changes reveal a reduction in long exposure and an increase in short positions. This suggests that speculative traders are beginning to take profits after the recent advance rather than aggressively adding new longs. At this stage, the COT report does not signal a major bearish reversal, but it does support the possibility of a short-term correction. Seasonality Seasonality continues to favor the bulls. Historically, June has been one of the strongest months for crude oil, with positive average returns across nearly every major lookback period. This seasonal strength is often linked to increased fuel demand during the U.S. summer driving season. Key Levels: - Resistance: 104–108 USD - Monthly Gap / Value Area: 70–76 USD - Long-Term Bullish Target: 120–124 USD Bias: Long-Term Bullish | Short-Term Corrective